I remember there was confusion about which Frenchie would get in. GG just picked the wrong one of the two.
The SAG nominating committee, composed of 2,100 randos, likely would not have even watched Amour, esp. when SPC was pushing Cotillard/holding Rust & Bone screenings for the committee because they knew Amour would be a hard sell. Part a question of timing (getting people to sit down and watch a film about old people dying) and part wisely allocating resources.
You're probably talking about me. I said "if Riva gets nominated for GG or SAG, she is going to win, will go to the stage and win the whole thing immediatly". Obviously that didn't happen. What did happen is BAFTA: she was put against Lawrence and Chastain and won, but unfortunately wasn't there to accept. So my theory never happened and she still has a chance.
People don't like it when I say this, but it's true: both times Lawrence was up against both Chastain and Riva, she lost (BFCA and BAFTA). (Please don't tell me some Australian International award means anything)