I just meant that I think the winners will be the expected ones - like Argo, Spielberg, Day-Lewis, Lawrence, TLJ, & Hathaway.Originally Posted by filmy
I just meant that I think the winners will be the expected ones - like Argo, Spielberg, Day-Lewis, Lawrence, TLJ, & Hathaway.
Ehh, we've seen these types of races before, where there is a long, drawn out schedule and no clear favorite. It's given us stuff like The Pianist's shocking wins. I would expect (lol) if any year is not "expected," it's this one, just going by the math.
Perhaps it isn't the right word, but Lawrence is not nearly as safe as Dujardin, Spencer or Plummer last year, any of the 2010 or 2009 four... There is definitely suspense there.Actress is not "open". LOL
The man who leaves and the man who comes back are not the same.
Actress is "open?"
....
Will Oscar have Riva Fever?
I'm curious whether next season will play out similary - will any of the precursors move, their nominations at least?
The man who leaves and the man who comes back are not the same.
Are you referring to it's ensemble win at the BFCA? If so, who cares? It lost the SAG, which is an award most people thought it would win. The only other thing it has really won all season other than Lawrence has been this BAFTA screenplay (I mean we can go back to it's Screenplay and Actor wins at the NBR, but is that really necessary?). I still think that the likeliest scenario, by far, is that SLP wins Best Actress and that's it.
Well obviously no race is open, but let's not pretend like Lawrence is locked.
The man who leaves and the man who comes back are not the same.
I hope every year is like this one!!!
And Lawrence will not lose the Oscar. Still, Picture/Director/Adapted Screenplay/Sup. Actor/Score are wide open with up to three or even four possible winners in each category. That's pretty awesome.
SAG already dropped the gauntlet and pushed their awards next year back a week.
I can guarantee you with almost 100% certainty that the BFCA will not be held on the same day as the Oscar nominations.
But let's not pretend that she doesn't have the substantial edge.
I mean, really you guys. Riva gained some momentum. This does not mean anything other than that. The race didn't suddenly become open.
ETA: I see that you corrected yourself a few posts above my original.
Will Oscar have Riva Fever?
That could happen...but I doubt it. Argo winning SAG really isn't that shocking (even though I didn't predict it) because SAG usually goes with their pick for Best Picture, and it's a bigger plus if that Best Picture is a true ensemble. The Artist losing to The Help is one of those rare instances where the Best Picture winner was mostly told by two actors, neither of which were American. SLP would have went the way of The Help had Argo not been such an ensemble piece.
Yes, but what I mean is there is still excitement and suspense about that particular race, along with Director, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor at least, which is already four out of the top 8, and last year we had, what, the obvious one, and maybe Original Screenplay? I'm really loving this.But let's not pretend that she doesn't have the substantial edge.
I mean, really you guys. Riva gained some momentum. This does not mean anything other than that. The race didn't suddenly become open.
ETA: I see that you corrected yourself a few posts above my original.
I don't nearly think Riva is as close as some believe she is though.
The man who leaves and the man who comes back are not the same.
That's all fine, but you're saying that SLP has been picking up surprise wins all over the place and it hasn't. It could have won the SAG Ensemble, but it didn't. It could have won the GG for Picture and Actor, but it didn't.
Yep. I agree with you. I was just questioning the use of "open," but I posted it before seeing you already clarified what you meant.
Will Oscar have Riva Fever?
The Globes are like the most irrelevant though. Like SLP losing there means zilch, nada. But the SAG ensemble loss was shocking to me.
If it wins at WGA, I have no idea about where it stands vis a vis Lincoln. Probably pretty ahead of it? I think that's why we're so confused--since Argo has dominated, we have no idea what is second, and many of these categories could be won(/ought to be won?) by what's in "second."
Last edited by filmy; 02-11-2013 at 03:36 PM.
This. I mean SLP was expected to win 3 SAGs where people said it has more chance than anywhere but it won just 1. Now it wins BAFTA for Screenplay and becomes underdog?
I know and I agree with you, but I'm just trying to understand what "surprise wins" crazyfists is talking about.
And I think for the first time ever, the WGA is actually going to be interesting. Although I really think Argo is winning that as well.
Yeah I said 'suck it SLP'. I think it was after they lost SAG ensemble. I don't like the film. It isn't a secret. You on the other hand is a JLaw cult member. I thought it was one of your posts criticising Lawrence to prove you're somewhat objective.
I guess I should have worded that differently...it hasn't been winning surprise wins all over the place, you're right, but I do think that things have spun in its favor and passion means a lot in a race that is pretty much open. I mean, when the frontrunner in a category CANNOT win, where do you go? With the film that is gaining momentum and is a feel good fun film that is also somewhat topical? To me (and this is sight unseen) it seems like SLP may be the closest film to Argo in terms of overall feel. It seems lighter and yet delivering an emotional impact that is admired by AMPAS.
And anyone thinking that SLP was going to win those awards at the Globes is crazy. Les Mis was made for the Globes and it performed exactly as expected. Doesn't mean that Les Mis is closer to best picture than SLP
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