DGA Awards anticipation thread

[moviewatcher]

As delusional as Wells is, at least he threw in the towel for SLP after SAG.

That's because he's going with the coward "Anything but Lincoln" route instead of the more honorable "This should win" route. He's such an idiot.

[RRA]

So the Director Oscar will go to LINCOLN or SLP.

I say SLP. David O. Russell seems to have rehabilitated his image from the dickhead auteur who headlocked Christopher Nolan to a legitimate, respectable filmmaker. That's a nice story in itself.

[Souler]

What's amusing is that for all the talk of Lincoln having no passion and Sasha thinking the end is near because AMPAS won't give it its due it might still end up with four (!!) major wins - Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay. Two of them more or less by default, but still.

[crazyfists3600]

It's always possible there is no backlash and Argo would have won all these things if Affleck hadn't been snubbed.

This. Argo was going to sweep regardless.

[Naruse]

What's the chance of Lincoln getting shut out at the Oscars?

If there is indeed a backlash against DDL winning a third lead Oscar, this thing can get ugly quickly as I can definitely see Argo taking screenplay, Lee taking director, and anyone can take the supporting actor.

[Atypical]

Ben Affleck! What a year this turned out to be for him. It only makes Best Director one of the most exciting categories of the night. I hope that voters leave the rule book behind and vote creatively (Benh Zeitlin?!?!). But I'll be thrilled for pretty much any win there. I'd be just as happy for Steven Spielberg to win for "Lincoln" as anyone.

Also thrilled over the great TV winners in drama and comedy! Lena Dunham and Rian Johnson! You done good, DGA!

[Moviefreak]

I will say this again, but rationalizing Affleck's snub as the "quirk" of one small branch is completely mind-boggleing to me. This isn't the makeup or the visual effects branch, this is the DIRECTORS branch for crying out loud and no matter which way you splice it, Affleck's snub is a really big deal. Considering Argo's performance at the precursor's, had Affleck been nominated, this race would have been completely over, but without the director nomination, Argo's lead is paper thin really. That's how linked these two categories are. So, to say that it's just one small branch and Argo over-performed everywhere else is nonsensical.

I can see how people are getting tired of the Apollo 13 comparison, but I think that's a much better one than comparing Argo to Driving Miss Daisy, which again was always the frontrunner despite its director never actually even being in the race. But, other than Apollo 13, Brokeback Mountain also won 3 major guilds, the BFCA, the GG, the BAFTA, two major critics awards, etc. and it won Director and Screenplay, yet it still lost Best Picture. So, sometimes sweeping the precursors doesn't translate into an Oscar win. The AMPAS, from time to time, likes to do its own thing and it did so this year. The directors had no issue snubbing two mortal locks, so I don't see why the Academy won't necessarily go its own way when voting for winners as well. Sasha is eccentric and kind of silly, but those people who are making fun of her for thinking that Lincoln still has a chance are almost as bad, because guess what? It does. I really don't think we'll know what is winning until the Oscars actually start being handed out.

[Capt. January]

Lol @ Sasha getting mad at such a predictable outcome. She needs to relax, Spielberg is probably winning director.

someone should tell her that "the trick is not minding"

[Artimus]

I will say this again, but rationalizing Affleck's snub as the "quirk" of one small branch is completely mind-boggleing to me. This isn't the makeup or the visual effects branch, this is the DIRECTORS branch for crying out loud and no matter which way you splice it, Affleck's snub is a really big deal. Considering Argo's performance at the precursor's, had Affleck been nominated, this race would have been completely over, but without the director nomination, Argo's lead is paper thin really. That's how linked these two categories are. So, to say that it's just one small branch and Argo over-performed everywhere else is nonsensical.

What is the difference between Makeup and Directors? It's still a limited number of people. Plus, for all anyone knows the top seven films were within 50 votes of each other or something (in this small a branch? very plausible).

[Moviefreak]

What is the difference between Makeup and Directors? It's still a limited number of people. Plus, for all anyone knows the top seven films were within 50 votes of each other or something (in this small a branch? very plausible).

That's true, but missing with the Director's is a much stronger indication of a films Best PIcture winning potential than missing some random tech. Again, Affleck's snub might ultimately mean nothing and Argo still wins Best Picture or it might mean everything and despite its precursor haul it'll lose and all this comes down to the small directors branch.

[Bean]

That's true, but missing with the Director's is a much stronger indication of a films Best PIcture winning potential than missing some random tech. Again, Affleck's snub might ultimately mean nothing and Argo still wins Best Picture or it might mean everything and despite its precursor haul it'll lose and all this comes down to the small directors branch.

I think the combined consensus of the PGA, SAG, and DGA means more than the Director's Branch of the Academy. Affleck's snub is huge and baffling, but it seems that that's not going to stop Argo from winning.

[Artimus]

That's true, but missing with the Director's is a much stronger indication of a films Best PIcture winning potential than missing some random tech.

Is it? Most Best Picture winners win Director. Is it not really that there is generally a consensus in Best Picture (or it comes down to 2 or 3 films) and that carries over to Best Director more than most categories, thus the high correlation of nominations. But that doesn't mean not getting a director nom invalidates your chances of winning given huge support elsewhere.

[Jonathan]

I do get what Moviefreak is getting at though. Argo is the clear frontrunner, but the correlation between the Directing branch and how the Academy ultimately goes is too strong over the years to ignore. I mean, consider how much weight we've put into the Editing category, a branch that's probably even smaller than the Directing branch that has still been a consistent forebear of where the Academy goes.

[electric_storm]

I don't think people are invalidating the importance of the Director's branch at all. I for one don't expect this to be a regular occurence for instance, it may not even happen again for 25 years, but it's all about looking at things in the context of the year they happen. The weight of concensus behind "Argo" and the very good reasons to consider it a favourite otherwise outweigh this particular stat which however unlikely can at least be explained by a simple mathematical quirk of the way nominations work. Put it this way, we have precedent in the past few decades of a film winning without a nomination for its director, we have no precedent for a film winning BFCA, Globe, PGA, DGA and SAG and losing the Oscar.

[Jonathan]

I don't think people are invalidating the importance of the Director's branch at all. I for one don't expect this to be a regular occurence for instance, it may not even happen again for 25 years, but it's all about looking at things in the context of the year they happen. The weight of concensus behind "Argo" and the very good reasons to consider it a favourite otherwise outweigh this particular stat which however unlikely can at least be explained by a simple mathematical quirk of the way nominations work. Put it this way, we have precedent in the past few decades of a film winning without a nomination for its director, we have no precedent for a film winning BFCA, Globe, PGA, DGA and SAG and losing the Oscar.

Though to be fair, BFCA and SAG have been around for less than two decades, and PGA less than three. In a year as quirky as this, they may mean less than we're accustomed to.

[RRA]

This. Argo was going to sweep regardless.

Oh now we say that. I love revisionistic history.

[Moviefreak]

Is it? Most Best Picture winners win Director. Is it not really that there is generally a consensus in Best Picture (or it comes down to 2 or 3 films) and that carries over to Best Director more than most categories, thus the high correlation of nominations. But that doesn't mean not getting a director nom invalidates your chances of winning given huge support elsewhere.

Of course it doesn't and as I've said, I think that Argo can obviously win Best Picture even without a Director nomination, but the fact that after having swept the precursors it's still a very tenuous frontrunner speaks to the importance of the directors branch and the strong link between these two awards.

I do get what Moviefreak is getting at though. Argo is the clear frontrunner, but the correlation between the Directing branch and how the Academy ultimately goes is too strong over the years to ignore. I mean, consider how much weight we've put into the Editing category, a branch that's probably even smaller than the Directing branch that has still been a consistent forebear of where the Academy goes.

Exactly. I've also brought up Editing before in the Brokeback Mountain context. When it missed the Editing nomination most people wrote it off, but it was a harbinger of things to come and I would say that a Directing snub is a much bigger deal than an Editing one.

[electric_storm]

On a side note, I've noticed the "Argo" FYC ads have smartly started naming the producers in prime placement.

[kissfromarose]

Sasha is passionate about Lincoln but she isn't the only one that might go a bit too personal. Didn't Nathaniel Rogers close his site for an entire day when BBM lost? Then wrote an entire article on why he was so upset?

So true! Sasha's annual meltdown has become a staple and her rants are hilarious. It's one of the many amazing things to look forward every year!

And may I remind AwardsDaily once again how unbearable you all were when Brokeback Mountain lost?

[Bean]

So true! Sasha's annual meltdown has become a staple and her rants are hilarious. It's one of the many amazing things to look forward every year!

And may I remind AwardsDaily once again how unbearable you all were when Brokeback Mountain lost?

How exactly was OscarWatch unbearable wafer BBM lost? I think it struck most people (justifiably) as a large defeat because of BBM's meaning in the wider pop culture. A favorite movie lost, yes, but its loss was freighted with much bigger implications.