Which Oscars will Argo win?

[Bean]

Then, twenty years from now, he makes a return to acting (having retired from performing in 2016) in a small but pivotal supporting role in director Quvenzhané Wallis's latest masterpiece. I can see the standing ovation now, only surpassed by the one given Jack Black for life achievement award in Cannes.

LMAO

Jack Black winning a Lifetime Achievement Award at Canne is totally happening.

[MrJeffery]

Yep, if Affleck pumps out some crap like "A Beautiful Mind" he'll sweep... again.

haha yes. i'm prepared for this.

[caliban51782]

Kushner's script was prosaic and witty, but it did have some deadweight, namely the beginning (which was stiff on the directing & acting fronts as well as writing) and the ending/epilogue, which IMO was superfluous (could've just ended on the passage of the 13th amendment).

Terrio's script, while not as prosaic or florid, was at least trim.

Dang it, I can actually see this happening. Poor Kushner. I was never a big fan of his UNTIL "Lincoln".

What's the better barometer, BAFTA or WGA?

This is all so hilarious.

Affleck's snub is the best thing to happen in his career: he's is going to win his second career Oscar (for producing) this year and he´s AUTOMATICALLY going to be considered overdue for a Director Oscar the next time he´s up at bat.

You know, at this point I wish that the Academy had just gone ahead and nominated Affleck and gotten it over with. I think you're right that we WILL have to go through this again. I genuinely liked "Lincoln" better than "Argo", so naturally I wish they would go ahead and award the former and give Affleck Picture & Director the next time he's up for it.

That and there'd be no second-guessing "Argo" for Picture at this point. It's so statistically rare.

Makes me wonder what it would've been like if AD had existed the last time it happened, in 1989:

No film has won Picture without a Director nomination since the VERY FIRST OSCARS. Mark my words. Not happening.

No one beats OMG Legend Tandy! She's 80+ years old and has never been nominated before!!!! Michelle Pfeiffer is young and will have plenty of chances to win. She'll win the next time she is nominated, guarateed.

You tried it, sis.

Dave

[danielvin]

Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

[Kendallamc]

I'm still NOT sold on this winning BP but if does win anything..

Best Picture
Editing or Sound Editing

[CMJ]

This was an interesting piece of info I got off of one of the posters on incontention.

Of the 15 preferential BP winners in Oscar history, 14 of them had the most nominations or one less.

Just something else Argo will have to overcome. It appears strong enough to but damn even the preferential ballot, which people assume will work in its favor, seems to line up against it.

[filmy]

Just something else Argo will have to overcome. It appears strong enough to but damn even the preferential ballot, which people assume will work in its favor, seems to line up against it.

Uhhh, I don't know when the preferential ballot for the BP winner was in effect pre-The Hurt Locker/ten nominees. In the 30s? LOL. It's not even relevant with today's Academy. And if we even take that stat seriously (nobody should), then most nominations or one less? Great... but like Argo got nearly everything it could but directing and maybe another random tech.

Argo likely wins. Ease into it.

[Matt24]

This is all so hilarious.

Affleck's snub is the best thing to happen in his career: he's is going to win his second career Oscar (for producing) this year and he´s AUTOMATICALLY going to be considered overdue for a Director Oscar the next time he´s up at bat.

It's so true, I'm willing to bet the house he gets a director nod for his next film unless it's completely trashed.

[CMJ]

Uhhh, I don't know when the preferential ballot for the BP winner was in effect pre-The Hurt Locker/ten nominees. In the 30s? LOL. It's not even relevant with today's Academy. And if we even take that stat seriously (nobody should), then most nominations or one less? Great... but like Argo got nearly everything it could but directing and maybe another random tech.

Argo likely wins. Ease into it.

If you can't tell my predictions - I am actually calling for it to win. There is just so much history it has to overcome (not just the no director nom - which is a helluva thing by itself)), I just am not entirely confident in that prediction. Before this, I was calling for SLP to win if you wanna go back and check. So, given that I am a Lincoln supporter, I hardly think I am being a fanboy just trying to take Argo down. It's a frontrunner, but nearly everything I know says it should not be. It winning is gonna basically rewrite half the rules.

[filmy]

If you can't tell my predictions - I am actually calling for it to win. There is just so much history it has to overcome (not just the no director nom - which is a helluva thing by itself)), I just am not entirely confident in that prediction. Before this, I was calling for SLP to win if you wanna go back and check. So, given that I am a Lincoln supporter, I hardly think I am being a fanboy just trying to take Argo down. It's a frontrunner, but nearly everything I kow says it should not be. It' winning is gonna basically rewrite half the rules.

LOL, I'm kidding, though I think you know that.

[alqumista219]

I guess

Picture
Adapted S.
Editing

[Shiva The God Of Death]

Kushner's script was prosaic and witty, but it did have some deadweight, namely the beginning (which was stiff on the directing & acting fronts as well as writing) and the ending/epilogue, which IMO was superfluous (could've just ended on the passage of the 13th amendment).

Terrio's script, while not as prosaic or florid, was at least trim.

Both films ended with unnecessary treacle, if you ask me. In Argo, there was the silly "Tony reunites with his wife and children" stuff, and in Lincoln, there was the epilogue with the flame.

[McTeague]

Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

If it wins Sound Mixing over Life of Pi and Les Misérables then you better prepare for an Argo sweep. It's not winning "just" those two. If it wins those two over much stronger contenders it means it's also winning editing, adapted screenplay and picture.

Then again, it won't. Life of Pi will win those, because it will win around 5, more or less the same Hugo got.

[ActingDude17]

In order of likelihood:

EDITING
PICTURE
SOUND EDITING
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
SOUND MIXING
SUPPORTING ACTOR
ORIGINAL SCORE

[eoindaly2k11]

In order of likelihood:

SUPPORTING ACTOR
ORIGINAL SCORE

Are you crazy Desplat being overdue has a much better chance then Arkin.

[ActingDude17]

Life of Pi's and Lincoln's music are much more immediate parts of those films than Argo's. On the other hand, Arkin could ride an Argo wave to the top of his very wide open category.

[Matt24]

Life of Pi's and Lincoln's music are much more immediate parts of those films than Argo's. On the other hand, Argo could ride an Argo wave to the top of his very wide open category.

Ugh, I like Lincoln a lot, but if it wins Score... yuck. Just a rehash of every Williams score ever created.

[ActingDude17]

Ugh, I like Lincoln a lot, but if it wins Score... yuck. Just a rehash of every Williams score ever created.

Maybe Life of Pi will pull it off?

[CMJ]

Ugh, I like Lincoln a lot, but if it wins Score... yuck. Just a rehash of every Williams score ever created.

I don't agree with this at all.

[jjj]

2 months ago I made this post: "I’m holding onto my Argo pipe dream.
But if it looks like Les Miz will manage triple actressing noms, I’ll predict it. [No]
And if it looks like Lincoln will take the 2 traditionally most crowded acting categories, I’ll predict it. [Maybe]

ZD30 if…$100 mil + 2nd acting nominee out of the blue [No]
Silver Linings if…Cooper suddenly becomes a heavy threat for the win, and JLaw is undeniable [No]."

Someone said I was being absurd and silly because Argo's chances were not even that good.

If it ends up being an Argo/Pi split it would be my favorite BPBD combo in the 21st century.