Which Oscars will Argo win?

[CMJ]

I believe Addison de Witt is right is right about it being since Rebecca for a film to only get BP out of the "top 8"...Argo has to win Screenplay or Supporting Actor. It just has to. It's not gonna win without a directing, writing, or acting award. If it gets none of those, I really think it's not winning BP.

So, I am prediciting it for Screenplay, which is tough because I really thought Kushner was a bigger lock than DDL up until about a week ago.

[Moviefreak]

Would it be that shocking if Argo won Picture, Editing, maybe one of the Sound categories and/or Score and Supporting Actor, while Lincoln wins Director, Actor and Screenplay?

[with_one_voice]

Would it be that shocking if Argo won Picture, Editing, maybe one of the Sound categories and/or Score and Supporting Actor, while Lincoln wins Director, Actor and Screenplay?

I fear that this may happen! There's such a void in Supporting Actor that I think an Arkin win is frighteningly plausible, with Argo as the Best Picture frontrunner.

[CMJ]

Would it be that shocking if Argo won Picture, Editing, maybe one of the Sound categories and/or Score and Supporting Actor, while Lincoln wins Director, Actor and Screenplay?

Well, Arkin can win. TLJ is a shaky frontrunner - any of those five can win. I might predict Arkin instead of the script I suppose.

[Moviefreak]

I really don't think Hoffman is winning, but I can see any of the other 4 taking it really. The BAFTA is interesting. I think it's between TLJ and Waltz at the moment. If Jones wins there, I think it'll be tough to bet against him because he would seemingly have a lot of industry support. If Waltz wins, I think that leaves the door open for any one of Jones, Waltz, DeNiro or Arkin. If Argo and SLP are as beloved by the AMPAS as some people claim they are, I think one of their supporting actors can get a win without any precursor support in an open category. I actually think if Argo is indeed winning Best Picture, Arkin is stronger than DeNiro.

I think it would be hilarious if Bardem wins the BAFTA.

[erikdean]

Would it be that shocking if Argo won Picture, Editing, maybe one of the Sound categories and/or Score and Supporting Actor, while Lincoln wins Director, Actor and Screenplay?

It actually wouldn't be that shocking?

[Moviefreak]

I agree.

[guany]

Eh, I'm skeptical of the predictions for Score and the talk of Arkin. I think a lot of people are doing the same thing they did after The King's Speech starting sweeping the guilds. That year, we all thought that The King's Speech would win Score, Art Direction, Costumes, etc. It ended up only winning 4 (big) prizes. 4 seems to be the magic number (King's Speech, Departed, NCFOM, Million Dollar Baby, A Beautiful Mind, etc).

I remember when I first saw Argo back in September, I thought it would be a frontrunner for Sound Editing. Now I'm back to predicting that. If not for Les Mis, I think it would have a shot in Sound Mixing as well.

[Moviefreak]

But it can get 4 with Arkin and/or Score.

Picture, Supporting Actor, Score, Editing or Picture, Supporting, Editing, Sound Editing.

[guany]

I really think Arkin would have SAG though (he's never won there aside from Ensemble).

EDIT. I believe that the only person to win an acting Oscar for a Best Picture winner after not winning SAG is Russell Crowe... who lost to Oscar's Supporting winner.

[Vincent Blanchett]

Best Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
Best Sound Editing

I just can't see Arkin winning, especially when his character and performance is just so slight compared to his competition, who all had big Oscar scenes.

[with_one_voice]

I don't think Arkin will win (I think Jones is the frontrunner, albeit a very weak one), but I don't think that Arkin is without some good "Oscar scenes". For one, he has the emotional scene with Affleck while talking about his family on the steps. He also provides the funniest recurring comedy line of the film ("Argo fuck yourself"), which is pretty much the closest thing to an iconic quote of mainstream American films this year. I know most here shit on Arkin as an especially unworthy nominee (not necessarily disagreeing), but if we remember when the film came out, most were posting here how their audiences were completely eating up this film, notably its comedic moments.

[Eduardo Zuckerberg]

If Arkin wins then we know it's a done deal. Even if it loses screenplay.

Right now I'm thinking Picture, Editing and Sound Editing. I'm thisclose to predicting it for screenplay but I still think Lincoln has the edge there atm.

[McTeague]

I think the talk of a possible Arkin win is just fuzzy-headed Lincoln fanboy talk, from guys who really, really, really don't want Lincoln's script to loose. They'd rather watch TLJ loose than watch beloved Kushner loose, and they start inventing a scenario in which Arkin is a likelier win for Argo than the script. LOL. If Arkin wins best supporting actor, expect Argo to easily sweep screenplay, with more reason. But Arkin won't win. The script might win, though. Lincoln is no lock there despite its fans desperately claiming so.

[electric_storm]

I think the talk of a possible Arkin win is just fuzzy-headed Lincoln fanboy talk, from guys who really, really, really don't want Lincoln's script to loose. They'd rather watch TLJ loose than watch beloved Kushner loose, and they start inventing a scenario in which Arkin is a likelier win for Argo than the script. LOL. If Arkin wins best supporting actor, expect Argo to easily sweep screenplay, with more reason. But Arkin won't win. The script might win, though. Lincoln is no lock there despite its fans desperately claiming so.

Yep, this completely. It may have escaped alot of people's attention but "Argo" has actually won quite a few Screenplay awards from critics, including a biggie at LA, in fact in terms of numbers it's pretty close with "Lincoln" and neither have really won anything important yet to claim favouritism. Alot of those wins came at places "Argo" didn't take top honours, and the reviews for Terrio's script were pretty euphoric, so him winning would in no way be a desperate measure to give "Argo" SOMETHING major like people are painting it to be, and like Arkin obviously would be. And yes, I do think it needs something major to go with BP, and yes I do think it's winning BP, so Screenplay it is.

[Capt. January]

This is all so hilarious.

Affleck's snub is the best thing to happen in his career: he's is going to win his second career Oscar (for producing) this year and he´s AUTOMATICALLY going to be considered overdue for a Director Oscar the next time he´s up at bat.

[Souler]

This is all so hilarious.

Affleck's snub is the best thing to happen in his career: he's is going to win his second career Oscar (for producing) this year and he´s AUTOMATICALLY going to be considered overdue for a Director Oscar the next time he´s up at bat.

Oh God, you're right.

[electric_storm]

Yep, if Affleck pumps out some crap like "A Beautiful Mind" he'll sweep... again.

[McTeague]

LOL, what a frightening but likely possibility!

ETA: If that was the case and next time he won BD, and again BP, being a producer, we'd be talking about 4-time Oscar winner Ben Affleck!

[Capt. January]

ETA: If that was the case and next time he won BD, and again BP, being a producer, we'd be talking about 4-time Oscar winner Ben Affleck!

Then, twenty years from now, he makes a return to acting (having retired from performing in 2016) in a small but pivotal supporting role in director Quvenzhané Wallis's latest masterpiece. I can see the standing ovation now, only surpassed by the one given Jack Black for life achievement award in Cannes.