I believe Addison de Witt is right is right about it being since Rebecca for a film to only get BP out of the "top 8"...Argo has to win Screenplay or Supporting Actor. It just has to. It's not gonna win without a directing, writing, or acting award. If it gets none of those, I really think it's not winning BP.
So, I am prediciting it for Screenplay, which is tough because I really thought Kushner was a bigger lock than DDL up until about a week ago.