Best Supporting Actor: Who will win?

[siowafc]

I think they're on equal footing, especially since the three performances they're up against are so, so much more deserving, and they kept out Dwight Henry (Well, Walt probably did, but still...).

Actually, I think Henry would have had a viable shot at winning if he did get in? Beasts was clearly loved, and being up against four previous winners with no clear frontrunner...

Oh what could have been.

I think the fact that he was not nominated indicated that he would have no chance of winning though? AMPAS had so many alternatives to this previous winner line-up and they still found these five guys preferable.

[siowafc]

1. De Niro
2. Jones
3. Hoffman
4. Arkin
5. Waltz

Also, I love how this ranking is in reverse order of when they last won an Oscar. That is also probably the correct ranking.

[with_one_voice]

I don't think Henry would have had a viable chance to win if he had been nominated, simply because his film is too small and he's too unknown, but I do think he was probably either sixth or seventh in voting, considering how Beasts over-performed and Wallis was nominated with little precursor support.

Actually, I chalk Wallis making it + Henry not making it up to campaigning: while they both campaigned pretty equally in the beginning, he stopped campaigning in recent months, while she attended parties and functions left and right, which may account for why she got in but he didn't.

[filmy]

DeNiro winning for this shit performance would fucking suck worse than Arkin winning.

I think it's such a lovely, nuanced performance. It would be consistent with the last few really good choices in this category. Jones is good too.

[Jonathan]

I think the fact that he was not nominated indicated that he would have no chance of winning though? AMPAS had so many alternatives to this previous winner line-up and they still found these five guys preferable.

Eh, Harden was probably 4th or 5th in 2000, which didn't stop her. And if he had been nominated he would be Beasts' most viable option for a win, which in a race where there's no clear favorite can become significant (See Swinton winning in 2007). Being a first-time actor would hurt, yes, but all of the nominees on the film were first-timers and got in anyway.

[City Lights]

if Henry did get the nom, then yeah. He'd be a major threat as the only non-winner in the group.

[jjj]

I don't really want Jones to win, but it would be better than De Niro winning so I guess if/when he does I'll at least be happy it's not De Niro.

The other 3, I'm fine with.

[erib777]

Best line-up in years but I miss Leo DiCaprio. If I have to choose one from Django he is Leo. Or replace Alan Arkin for him sounds algo good.

[Ben7]

De Niro it is.

1. De Niro
2. Waltz
3. Arkin

In my ranking of the nominees, I'm not sure who I'd rank last: Tommy Lee Jones and Philip Seymour Hoffman.

[The Marquee]

I have predicted Waltz to win and I hope he does, although Jones gives an incredible performance in Lincoln (my second favorite of his just behind Woodrow Call in Lonesome Dove). The only thing that makes me feel that Jones could win is that if he can win for his performance in The Fugitive (which I think was rigged) he's got it hands down.

[Critix]

I think it's such a lovely, nuanced performance. It would be consistent with the last few really good choices in this category. Jones is good too.

Agreed. Erik can go eat Dwight's donuts.

[Eduardo Zuckerberg]

I really have no pony here. Hoffman or Jones would probably be most deserving but I kinda want Arkin just for the WTF of it all. Who even knew he would eventually be a 4x nominee?

[Rob]

Jones I think. As daft as it seems to me I think DeNiro has a real shot if they love the movie, even though for me it's my least favourite.

[Atonenent.]

I also don't think Waltz should be underestimated, as weird as it would be. He might win BAFTA.

[Matt24]

lol, the hate for De Niro is unjust. He's actually wonderfully sensitive in a way he hasn't been in a long time (maybe ever).

[ganonlink1991]

lol, the hate for De Niro is unjust. He's actually wonderfully sensitive in a way he hasn't been in a long time (maybe ever).

Pretty much.. maybe only in Awakenings and Frankenstein

[fallglimmer32]

question- are any of them really showing they want it? Like are they out making the rounds and talking to people?

[Filmatelist]

I kind of think De Niro will win SAG and then they won't be able to resist awarding him.

Exactly. His great body of work was largely before the SAGs, so this is his first real nomination (nobody's counting the Marvin's Room ensemble nod ages ago) and they may not resist the urge to give the legend an award.

So even if he does win, it may not be a reliable Oscar predictor because of that variable. Still, I think he was terrific and more deserving than half his competition.

[James]

I think DeNiro takes the SAG on the weekend and then I don't know what happens from there on in. BAFTA cannot answer any questions in regards to DeNiro, but it may give us an indication of who else is in this race. Tommy Lee Jones seems to be the most likely given his role and performance, but he's failed to gain traction and I really think that his Globes sour-puss face may prevent him from gaining traction in the next couple of weeks. I don't think Arkin has much of a shot, but if Argo takes lead in Best Picture this might be a place to reward it.

[Zuranthium]

I really have no pony here. Hoffman or Jones would probably be most deserving but I kinda want Arkin just for the WTF of it all. Who even knew he would eventually be a 4x nominee?

Um, Arkin should have been a 4x nominee like 35+ years ago. He did a lot of amazing work from the mid 60's to the mid 70's.