Best Actress: Who will win?

[babz]

Chastain can come and snatch Lawrence's wig in the 9th hour. That SNL skit was a hot sweaty mess.

[dlong5665]

SNL will not hurt Jlaw, like at all.

Though Her Royal Realness topping the BO this weekend helped her chances A LOT!

[Atonenent.]

Dunno, I think people are reading into the little things too much. "Chastain's box office helps her", "SNL helps Lawrence", "SNL hurts Lawrence", "voting starts after BAFTA", "Lawrence losing BAFTA hurts her", "they might reward SLP elsewhere"... Not everything means something.

We're getting desperate more than a month before the Oscars

[Serhal]

At the moment I'll say Lawrence. I think it'll come down to her or Chastain, but I think a very strong case could be made for Riva or Wallis as both of their films have performed much better than expected. Watts will have to just enjoy the nomination.

[raguabros]

Where is the Riva confidence coming from? Amour overperforming in noms? Sorry I've been out of the loop.

[with_one_voice]

Where is the Riva confidence coming from? Amour overperforming in noms? Sorry I've been out of the loop.

Yes, plus this year has a longer-than-average voting period, so those who didn't watch Amour before nominations will have more of an opportunity to do so. This may benefit Riva as many think it's an undeniable performance as long as it's seen

[erikdean]

Riva.

Ok.

[Blasty]

There have been many, many times that the undisputed "best, most acclaimed" performance has lost the Oscar. So, eh, I don't really think the whole, 'But if they see the performance they will HAVE to vote for her!' is a strong argument. It can be disproven in at least half the acting categories every year for all sorts of reasons.

Plus, it seems every year people always seem to forget that plenty of the Academy votes on these things for reasons that have nothing to do with merit but how much they like the person, if they feel they're "deserving" by who knows what criteria they use, or because they worked with the actor previously or all kinds of shit. Sure, the quality and reception of the performance matters but it's often not enough. Especially if you're not in a Hollywood film. Sure, a Marion Cotillard can happen but this year is not that one nor is Riva's career on that same upward trajectory.

[electric_storm]

There have been many, many times that the undisputed "best, most acclaimed" performance has lost the Oscar. So, eh, I don't really think the whole, 'But if they see the performance they will HAVE to vote for her!' is a strong argument. It can be disproven in at least half the acting categories every year for all sorts of reasons.

Plus, it seems every year people always seem to forget that plenty of the Academy votes on these things for reasons that have nothing to do with merit but how much they like the person, if they feel they're "deserving" by who knows what criteria they use, or because they worked with the actor previously or all kinds of shit. Sure, the quality and reception of the performance matters but it's often not enough. Especially if you're not in a Hollywood film. Sure, a Marion Cotillard can happen but this year is not that one nor is Riva's career on that same upward trajectory.

There's also the old house maid theory. That alot of members can't even be bothered filling out their ballots and just give it to their nannies to mark off (Watts win? ).

[McTeague]

Lawrence got more votes than Riva at the NYFCC and exactly the same as Riva at LAFCA. And those critics are not suspect of not having seen Amour, especially LAFCA who voted the film the best of the year.

AD simply HAS to stop this disgusting, self-righteous and rather provincial bullshit that Riva's performance is objectively better by some mysterious but undoubtedly objective criteria. Professional critics have seen both Riva and Lawrence and have preferred Lawrence (NY) or have considered her equal to Riva (LA). AD is assuming Riva’s performance is objectively better because it’s in a seemingly important, hyper-tragic, French auteur film, and that’s some serious hillbilly thinking. Prefer Riva if you will, but spare us the hypocrisy of calling it undeniably better. Way more prestigious critics than AD posters have deemed Lawrence the better one, and they have clearly seen both and even preferred Riva’s film.

[with_one_voice]

Riva.

Ok.

You deserve a cold hard slap for basically declaring Amour/Riva DOA all year, even as it gained buzz through the fall and winter. It over-performed just to spite you.


And to be clear, I'm not predicting Riva to win this. However, the extended voting period likely benefits her (more so than others). I was just responding to ragua's question about why some have confidence in Riva, and although I don't know why people are voting for her to win atm, the extended voting period is one of the pro-Riva arguments going around. Guany can chime in about how years with extended voting periods tend to produce more unusual results (just as years with compressed voting periods tend to produce more unusual nomineee, as we saw this year). Filmy and Submerge and all the other good predictors here can also attest that Riva actually has a decent shot at the win, better than many of you are giving her credit for (which is basically that she has no shot), and is probably no. 2 behind Lawrence, although Lawrence is a pretty strong favorite.

[erikdean]

You deserve a cold hard slap for basically declaring Amour/Riva DOA all year, even as it gained buzz through the fall and winter. It over-performed just to spite you.

Hey, I take full responsibility for how poorly I called that. Clearly the gap between SAG/GG and AMPAS is growing and I'm definitely happy for that.

[with_one_voice]

Hey, I take full responsibility for how poorly I called that. Clearly the gap between SAG/GG and AMPAS is growing and I'm definitely happy for that.

I am too



(Although we all know Q woulda been nom'd if eligible)

[Atonenent.]

Lawrence got more votes than Riva at the NYFCC and exactly the same as Riva at LAFCA. And those critics are not suspect of not having seen Amour, especially LAFCA who voted the film the best of the year.

AD simply HAS to stop this disgusting, self-righteous and rather provincial bullshit that Riva's performance is objectively better by some mysterious but undoubtedly objective criteria. Professional critics have seen both Riva and Lawrence and have preferred Lawrence (NY) or have considered her equal to Riva (LA). AD is assuming Riva’s performance is objectively better because it’s in a seemingly important, hyper-tragic, French auteur film, and that’s some serious hillbilly thinking. Prefer Riva if you will, but spare us the hypocrisy of calling it undeniably better. Way more prestigious critics than AD posters have deemed Lawrence the better one, and they have clearly seen both and even preferred Riva’s film.

Exactly. All of this.

LAFCA selected Amour as their best film and Lawrence still got the same number of votes as Riva. SLP is much more likely to get more votes in the Best Picture category than Riva and really, who will vote for SLP but not Lawrence? Getting her performance seen is not THE hurdle Riva has to overcome to win. She'll need much more and I don't really see how.

[Rob]

Yes. An honorary award in maybe 40 years. Pmsl

[dlong5665]

Yes. An honorary award in maybe 40 years. Pmsl

[Rob]

Lord. That was supposed to be in a different thread. Curse this freaking iPhone.

[Rob]

J-Law is likely winning. Riva as a possible spoiler.

There is enough broad support in the nominations to suggest a decent number of people have seen the performance, including obviously the largest branch.

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

Lawrence got more votes than Riva at the NYFCC and exactly the same as Riva at LAFCA. And those critics are not suspect of not having seen Amour, especially LAFCA who voted the film the best of the year.

AD simply HAS to stop this disgusting, self-righteous and rather provincial bullshit that Riva's performance is objectively better by some mysterious but undoubtedly objective criteria. Professional critics have seen both Riva and Lawrence and have preferred Lawrence (NY) or have considered her equal to Riva (LA). AD is assuming Riva’s performance is objectively better because it’s in a seemingly important, hyper-tragic, French auteur film, and that’s some serious hillbilly thinking. Prefer Riva if you will, but spare us the hypocrisy of calling it undeniably better. Way more prestigious critics than AD posters have deemed Lawrence the better one, and they have clearly seen both and even preferred Riva’s film.