This. Plus, like Jon said, Les Mis is performing quite similarly to Dreamgirls.Originally Posted by erikdean
This. Plus, like Jon said, Les Mis is performing quite similarly to Dreamgirls.
"This is not your daddy's HBO version of Mandela," said Weinstein. "This is the kickass version of Mandela."
But what kind of unrealistic appraisals of the Director race have you seen? Before today, most had completely discounted Hooper's chances. Now, everyone has him in the #5-7 position. Affleck, Bigelow, Lee, and Spielberg have hit all the major precursors, so those are clearly the top 4. Considering the DGA very rarely matches 5/5 with Oscar, it's reasonable to expect Hooper to fall off in favor of an auteur, like PT Anderson or Tarantino, as the Academy is kinder to these types than the DGA, which skews more populist. See: last year, Fincher for Malick. In general, though, I don't see what is so ludicrous about the Dreamgirls comparison. While the two cases are different for certain reasons (e.g., Hooper is a previous Oscar winner, and will probably have a BAFTA nomination), I think the comparison is still pretty valid.
Well, there were some theories that it was maybe too "gay" for the Academy. I remember reading some articles like that after it was snubbed. I mean, as stage shows go, a thinly veiled Diana Ross and the Supremes backstage soapy drama with lost of sequins is not exactly in the Academy wheelhouse.
Too gay? That's the last thing I'd call it.
This is all hearsay, though, and has no real statistical bearing on predicting the race today.
"This is not your daddy's HBO version of Mandela," said Weinstein. "This is the kickass version of Mandela."
I concur. Dreamgirls certainly didn't have reports of standing ovations after industry screenings. Regardless of whatever anyone might think of the film, all available reports from our usual suspects are that the reaction to the film within the realm of industry people has been overwhelmingly positive... There are just about 750-800 BAFTA members that are also Academy members; if Hooper makes the BAFTA cut and the film receives a bunch of nominations, I believe we could expect a strong showing from Les Miz on Thursday, much to the chagrin of many. Regardless of the feeling one may have towards Hooper and his supposed shortcomings as a director, the fact that remains from the available evidence is that most people in the industry think of him as a good director; so a Hooper nomination on Thursday wouldn't shock me in the least...
Last edited by GEORGEIII; 01-08-2013 at 05:24 PM.
A pessimist is a well-informed optimist-Napoleon
You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to McTeague again.
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Yes!
I loathed the direction in TKS but in Les Mis it was a huge improvement!
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Film blogging en español
I don't think anyone has said that it means nothing. Most people have him in 6th place, which I think is a fair assessment. He's clearly in the race, but will ultimately miss.
And I still think the comparison to Dreamgirls is a very valid one.
The directors branch of the Academy is just about the group I would expect to be least receptive to Les Miserables, aside from maybe the writers. If it is nominated, that bodes very well for its overall support and will make me question everything about what's in store for us (like what if it won SAG Ensemble? Or PGA?)... but I'm doubtful.
I think it's true that Les Miserables probably elicits greater emotion from viewers than Dreamgirls and I think it's more of a Moulin Rouge!-esque (divisive but it has its fans) situation because I would likely be predicting it to make a Best Picture top five if we still had such a thing.
LOL, this is the most enlightening post in the entire thread. Legend needs to call Keira Knightley to babysit Sunday Rose.
LMAO.
Seriously though, Hooper getting that DGA nod isn't all that surprising. I still don't see him nominated come Thursday morning.
Cate Blanchett
The Beautiful and Talented Godgend Señor El Diablo Blanchitto
Returning to Hollywood with a Vengeance in 2013
I really don't know how the Oscars are going to go. It looks like it might just go with the DGA 5/5, because this year's contenders in the Director field are really jam-packed; way too many contenders. Honestly, any of them would make sense. However, there are a lot of potentially great choices this year, and hopefully the lesser two (i.e. Hooper and Lee) will be replaced, preferably by Haneke, Anderson, Tarantino or Zeitlin.
The situation with Amour is just frustrating. A Palme d'Or winner from one of the most distinctive and respected auteurs in the world, and not to mention winning both Los Angeles Film Critics and National Society of Film Critics for Best Picture (something that a foreign-language film hasn't done in years), should factor much more in the Best Picture and Director race. Had this been the 1960s or 70s, I think Michael Haneke would be a no-brainer choice. Think Bergman's Cries and Whispers and Costa-Gavras's Z, and there are many more examples. I don't know if its the case of foreign language films having much less influences nowadays or simply that studios don't campaign for them anymore, but I feel like Amour (and A Separation from last year) could've and should've done so much more (with their levels of acclaim) than just mere "predicated" foreign-language film and screenplay nominations.
The Master is an ideal lone director nominee; a controversial and divisive film with passionate critical support and not to mention Paul Thomas Anderson's reputation (think David Lynch's Blue Velvet). However since the expansion of the Best Picture field, this lone director thing really hasn't happened. However, I think even with an expanded Best Picture field back then, Blue Velvet wouldn't make it in; so Anderson's chances, like Lynch's, really depends on the level of support. Hopefully Anderson can pull through.
And if Tarantino is snubbed, it would be puzzling. Django Unchained is arguably his greatest success yet in terms of both critically and commercially. It got 81 on MC, and for a film of this level of violence and controversy, its pretty amazing; it stands much better review-wise than Inglourious Basterds, in which the Academy showered with a ton of love. Its domestic box-office is crazy good; it will be the the highest grossing Best Picture contender domestically (its only competition is Lincoln).
I think in another year, both Zeitlin and Wes Anderson would stand a better chance. And honestly, Wes Anderson would be a very deserving first-time Best Director nominee, since he's been in the business for so long and Moonrise Kingdom was a major breakthrough for him.
And David O. Russell, not that I think he is totally deserving of the nominations, but he is a previous nominee (nominated for The Fighter, a much lesser film than SLP) and is well-regarded in the film community. If Jason Reitman can do it for Juno and Alexander Payne can do it for The Descendants, no reason why Russell can't do the same with Silver Linings Playbook.
Take that DGA!!!
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Documentary nominations:
Malik Bendjelloul (Searching for Sugar Man)
Kirby Dick (The Invisible War)
David France (How to Survive a Plague)
Lauren Greenfield (The Queen of Versailles)
Alison Klayman (Ai Wei Wei: Never Sorry)
Spielberg vs. the Industry. Who Will Win In The End?
Spielberg lost.
I'm happy for The Queen of Versailles. It was disappointing to see it not getting an oscar nom or much awards traction at all.
Has anyone heard if Milos Forman is sick or anything? A friend of mine invited me to attend this year's ceremony (in the back, but still..) and the only reason I was really excited for it was to see Milos Forman receive the Lifetime Achievment Award. Now I'm hearing that he has canceled his flights and hotel in LA. I'm wondering if he's sick and not attending, or if he just switched everything up?
He's protesting against Ben Affleck's DGA win.
Will Oscar have Riva Fever?
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