Best Actress: Post-BFCA/SAG/GG, 5

[xinefan]

Before Oscar (my final):

1.lawrence
2.chastain
3.watts
4.riva
5.mirren (cotillard)

done./.

[siowafc]

The best prediction is going to be:

Chastain
Cotillard
Lawrence
Mirren
Watts

That scenario contains all of the most likely nominees. You could argue that someone else (Riva, etc.) could sneak in, but you risk taking out the wrong likely nominee by putting her in.

[Jonathan]

Gurl. AMPAS doesn't care at all about that rusty foreign movie nobody saw.

Really? Because it seems like the BFCA, GG, SAG and BAFTA voters all saw it...

[erikdean]

...

[Jonathan]

...

I'm sticking with Wallis for the same reasons I stuck with Mara last year: irrational blind faith.

[McTeague]

Really? Because it seems like the BFCA, GG, SAG and BAFTA voters all saw it...

Yeah eons ago when Amour hadn't been released! it's all about peaking, baby.

[Moviefreak]

But...Mirren is in, it's Watts who is in dangerous waters.

Oh, I agree absolutely. But, I'm just saying that Mirren is 4th and it's Riva vs. Watts for the last spot.

[siowafc]

I think Mirren and Watts are basically in the same position?

BFCA + GG + SAG vs. GG + SAG + BAFTA

BFCA usually lines up more with Oscar than BAFTA anyway...

[City Lights]

The best prediction is going to be:

Chastain
Cotillard
Lawrence
Mirren
Watts

That scenario contains all of the most likely nominees. You could argue that someone else (Riva, etc.) could sneak in, but you risk taking out the wrong likely nominee by putting her in.

oh holy jeebus.



That desperate Nanny siggie is

[camille]

The best prediction is going to be:

Chastain
Cotillard
Lawrence
Mirren
Watts

That scenario contains all of the most likely nominees. You could argue that someone else (Riva, etc.) could sneak in, but you risk taking out the wrong likely nominee by putting her in.

Kinda makes sense, but too many returning nominees....there is almost always a newcomer in this field...therefore Riva or Wallis could sneak in and replace either Mirren or Watts in your line-up

[with_one_voice]

Interestingly, it's looking plausible, if not very likely, that 3 of the 4 acting categories this year be completely devoid of any first-timers. Having 1 category with no first-timers is incredibly rare... having 3 in one year is absolutely bonkers and totally unprecedented. We may wind up with only two first-time nominees, both in Actor.

[ReadyForMyCloseUp]

Except she was the clear frontrunner with no competition in a Best Picture nominee.

Oh and Chastain's BAFTA win isn't set in stone, not that it would actually make her the frontrunner. When does Chastain's Broadway stint end? Because the time for campaigning is NOW.

Chastain is on Broadway until the second week of February.

I don't think that campaigning would do her much good, as deserving as she is. Unfortunately, I think that Lawrence is locked for BFCA, SAG, and Oscar wins. While BAFTA voters weren't as enamored of Silver Linings Playbook as they were Zero Dark Thirty, they still go for the Oscar front-runner the vast majority of the time.

[erikdean]

I'm sticking with Wallis for the same reasons I stuck with Mara last year: irrational blind faith.

Maybe Wallis replaces Watts?!

[Jonathan]

Maybe Wallis replaces Watts?!

That's what I have, with Riva knocking out Mirren.

But I checked my final predictions last year, and I stuck with Oldman and Mara making it in to the end, so I feel good about this.

[siowafc]

You guys are crazy!

[with_one_voice]

Maybe Wallis replaces Watts?!

You should film yourself watching the nominations announcement, in the event that this happens. I'd die to see your reaction.

[camille]

I am absolutely sticking with Wallis to the end. She got the best scene of any actress this year when her father died

plus this category needs a newbie, and I'm not convinced about Riva (despite the fact that she has more precursors than Wallis)

[erikdean]

I think Mirren and Watts are basically in the same position?

BFCA + GG + SAG vs. GG + SAG + BAFTA

BFCA usually lines up more with Oscar than BAFTA anyway...

So the only time Watts has been this close before was for 21 Grams, obviously. For that film she got BFCA, SAG and BAFTA (missed GG) but also did well with tons of critics groups, winning LA and placing 2nd at NY. For The Impossible she has BFCA, GG, SAG and is missing BAFTA and hasn't gotten any critical recognition. So, I guess what I want to ask is is BAFTA more valuable than GG in general, especially if you're British/Australian?

[City Lights]

You should film yourself watching the nominations announcement, in the event that this happens. I'd die to see your reaction.

I'd much prefer to see Sio's meltdown if Nanny misses the boat.

[erikdean]

You should film yourself watching the nominations announcement, in the event that this happens. I'd die to see your reaction.

Ugh, it would be one of those thing that would go viral and end up on Tosh.0 as a Web Redemption. But, I am legitimately considering dropping Watts for Wallis.