Random Oscar Thoughts 2012-2013: Part 3

[Matt24]

I really don't get this? Granted, it's one ballot but you loved the film so much, yet snubbed its leading lady? LOL

Well, he did mention how great the depth of the field was, so maybe he wanted to spread the wealth? Plus, I know my favorite film of the year doesn't always contain my favorite performance, in fact, it's a rarity for me.

[Souler]

Head Over Heels was nice. Felt like it could have done more with the premise though.

Longest Daycare has a some clever gags and ending, but I have kind of a natural aversion to modern Simpsons, and this is very... modern Simpson-y. Rich Moore and David Silverman being nominated in the same year is kinds cool though.

Last chance for Adam + Dog to blow me away in this category.

[City Lights]

Fresh Guacamole was kinda like...a film student project.

Head Over Heels was great.

Adam & Dog was also great. It's also clearly winning.

[coldmess]

If anyone wants the animated shorts

Adam and Dog


Paperman


Fresh Guacamole


Longest Daycare
http://tu.tv/videos/the-simpsons-the-longest-daycare

Head Over Heels

[filmy]

Adam & Dog was also great. It's also clearly winning.

You trippin'!

[RayB]

Thank you so much, coldmess!

[coldmess]

I think Kris and Anne made a great point on their podcast: the new shorts voting system favors the short that is most widely seen. If the individual branches still voted I would probably predict Adam and Dog to win, but Paperman will probably win by default (not that Paperman is bad).

[jjj]

That is one way of putting it.
ZDT had very strong momentum - very briefly.
Lincoln had the same presence as Munich had the whole season. It's doing boringly predictably solid.
SLP overperformed with AMPAS.
I will not say that these were non-starters, but Argo's impressive comeback did make it frontrunner. And yes, I will forever argue that it had to do with Affleck's snub.

I felt it was more like...when Argo came out, it was The Seen Frontrunner, with Lincoln having lurked in the background as The Presumptive Winner since it was announced. And I guess the industry and others between the two felt like going with the actor-turned-director of multiple Oscar nominated performances, rather than throwing tons of awards at Spielberg for a war-related film for a 3rd time.

Since 1967, there have only been 2 double double winners (BD + BP twice), and both pulled off impressive acting award feats: Forman getting the Big Five, then getting a Lead Actor win from double noms. Eastwood's film Mystic River was just the 5th or so film to pull off both male acting awards, then the very next year MDB got Eastwood another 2 acting awards under his belt. And he made two different films that got him personal Director + Actor noms (So did Beatty, but his actors won far less.).
This is why I felt like Lincoln had to win Actor + S Actor to pull off BP...not that this is necessarily out of the question yet.

[lazarus]

Lincoln has won more awards than Munich, and has a much better chance of winning any of the Oscars it's up for.

That's not the "same presence".

[Blasty]

Also, I have to disagree with you Thomas, that Lincoln had the same presence as Munich the whole season. That isn't remotely true. Munich was seen as a huge favorite BEFORE it opened, and that is the only time it was comparable with Lincoln. Munich had a very rough reception the minute it opened and an incredibly rocky Oscar pre-season that was nothing like Lincoln's at all, neither in reviews or in precursor nods. Munich suffered a big backlash when it first opened and it ended up being lucky it got nominated for Best Picture at all. There were plenty of reason to not predict it up till the end.

[Thomas]

I meant that up until they opened, Munich and Lincoln were pretty much met with the same expectations. Obviously, Lincoln has done and will do better than Munich, but both will share the "also ran" destiny.

[Blasty]

I kinda think presidential bio-pics are rather TOO oscarbaity for even the Academy. Off the top of my head, we've had Wilson, JFK, Nixon, and now Lincoln - I don't know, I don't think they're made for the long haul. Nominations, sure, but otherwise, nada in the big category. Just too obvious and on the nose. I know JFK isn't really a presidential bio-pic LOL like at all, but I included it anyway just because.

[Thomas]

I kinda think presidential bio-pics are rather TOO oscarbaity for even the Academy. Off the top of my head, we've had Wilson, JFK, Nixon, and now Lincoln - I don't know, I don't think they're made for the long haul. Nominations, sure, but otherwise, nada in the big category. Just too obvious and on the nose. I know JFK isn't really a presidential bio-pic LOL like at all, but I included it anyway just because.

Two Nixons!

[Blasty]

Oh, yeah, I guess I forgot about that Sean Penn movie.

[with_one_voice]

We also got W.

[Thomas]

Oh, yeah, I guess I forgot about that Sean Penn movie.

Sean Penn? I was thinking Hopkins and Frost/Nixon.

[Blasty]

Sean Penn? I was thinking Hopkins and Frost/Nixon.

Oh LOL I thought you meant:

[Thomas]

Oh LOL I thought you meant:

LOL I forgot about that. Hardly a biopic - if it is, we should also count Dick.

[Blasty]

Nixon inspired movies are so popular LOL. I had no idea what that Penn movie was about actually.

[faina]

we also got w.

lol.