If we really get to the 4 or 5 placements Life of Pi is a threat to win. I'm predicting to do very well with the techs so I think it will get most of those placements.
FYC
Upstream Color - Best Picture
Shane Carruth - Upstream Color - Best Director
Argo to me totally seems like the kind of movie they normally like, I don't understand why she seems to think it seems too light weight.
Jackman's voice strained a bit in a few scenes as he was concentrating too much on the acting aspect of the performance rather than singing the notes well, but I felt his facial work and and the emotion he put forth were excellent (and this is coming from someone who wasn't crazy about the film).
The dog park, maybe.
Will Oscar have Riva Fever?
So...he's fantastic minus Bring Him Home, which is like his only big number from Suddenly until the ending. I mean, the second half isn't as interested in him despite him being around. We are on the save wavelength it would seem, you just don't want to color it so nicely![]()
I don't have him in my top five, but I'm fine with his nom. This seems to be the role of his lifetime, so at least he got a Globe and an Oscar nod for it.
True, I just also get sick of hearing self-congratulatory people like Tapley and Thompson trot out "I talked to this AMPAS member" like it fucking matters. There's 6000 members and you talked to someone from the Live Action Documentary Short section, good for you douchefuck.
Dame Leo reports,
So am I. Not even kidding. After Lawrence won the SAG, Tapley tweeted "Congratulations to Jennifer Lawrence for not having to face Emmanuelle Riva". I tweeted to him that He's in denial and Lawrence is winning. Innocent enough, right? I am now blocked from following him. All because of that! And I don't even want Lawrence to win! But to block someone for tweeting that? Don't these big bad awards bloggers have a thicker skin than that? Geez. They don't like being challenged. He has all but ignored the last month of the Best Actress race all because Riva hasn't been included all but ignoring the obvious momentum with SIlver Linings and JLaw. Riva COULD happen but its a long shot and I have failed to hear a suitable case from Tapley why it will. Apparently he's into blocking people who press him on it.
Thompson is just a dodo head. What the heck was she getting at over the Chastain thing? People were trashing her over giving the In Memoriam at SAG? Because of her ZDT character? What? Who? And before they elaborate Tapley brings up the Gurus of Gold as if anyone gives a s*it over the Gurus of Gold. And 1000X yes on her pushing her favorite. Making it sound like Bening-Portman was down to the wire. Talking up Helen Hunt/John Hawkes chances the whole time because she loved The Sessions even though the movie was clearly falling behind in the race.
I honestly think its sad that people like Ben Affleck go up to these unfocused jelly brains and even give them the time of day let alone solicit their opinion.
This is why Julianne Moore has never won an Oscar
Dave Karger seems to be the most sensibly knowledgeable one. Plus, he's called surprise noms the past few years. He predicted Weaver, von Sydow, Gyllenhaal and even back to the likes of Laura Linney in The Savages when no one else was. Well, I think a few were calling von Sydow, but he was the first to go with him even after the critics slaughtered the film and von Sydow missed everything.