Best Director: Post-BFCA/SAG/GG, 2

[filmy]

It's been ages since this category went for a foreign-language auteur (Almodovar was the last real one they nominated), and Haneke has buzz in a way that no other director since then has. Let's not be quick to write off that Directing nod from BAFTA. Here are the foreign-language films they've nominated there since 1990:

2007 - The Lives of Others (Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck)
2001 - Amelie (Jean-Pierre Jeunet)
1999 - All About My Mother (Pedro Almodovar)
1995 - Il Postino (Michael Radford)
1994 - Three Colors: Red (Krzysztof Kieslowski)
1990 - Cinema Paradiso (Giuseppe Tornatore)

Now, only two of them went on to get nominated for the Oscars, though three them did win Best Foreign Language Film (The Lives of Others, All About My Mother, Cinema Paradiso), and the other got five nominations overall from AMPAS.

I'm not certain what I'll do yet, especially since I have a hard time seeing Harvey miss out in this category, but Haneke is in about as strong as a position as he could possibly be at this point.

Exactly. And to those who have doubted me and my saying the screenplay nomination for Amour is likely (erik..): you guys are lunatics.

[guany]

I'm over the Harvey stat. He's just not having a very good year, overall. I think Haneke gets in.

As for the LAFCA stat, the directors of LAFCA's Best Picture winner also usually always gets nominated (exceptions: Stanton for Wall-E, Berman and Pulcini for American Splendor, Field for In the Bedroom... then you have to go back to Spike Lee in '89).

[Aurelius]

Final prediction: Affleck, Bigelow, Lee, Spielberg, Tarantino

[McTeague]

I'm having a last-minute Hooper hunch!

But I learnt long ago to tell genuine hunches from wishhful-thinking hunches, so Affleck, Bigelow, Lee, Spielberg, Tarantino. Or Haneke. Or Tarantino. Or Haneke. ARGH. Tarantino.

[Cédric]

I was convinced AMPAS would go for Haneke for The White Ribbon and I was wrong but this time around I'm more optimistic after that BAFTA BD nod. Oh well...we'll know in 2 hours now!

[Eduardo Zuckerberg]

Final predictions:

1. Affleck
2. Spielberg
3. Bigelow
4. Lee
5. PTA

[moviewatcher]

Final predictions:

1. Affleck
2. Spielberg
3. Bigelow
4. Lee
5. PTA

[electric_storm]

People are still predicting PTA? Good god, this is like the Streepers in november.

[moviewatcher]

People are still predicting PTA? Good god, this is like the Streepers in november.

LAFCA ftw!!!

Also... always remember meireles, malick and greengrass...

[electric_storm]

If there's an out of left field auteur nominee it's Haneke.

[Cédric]

If there's an out of left field auteur nominee it's Haneke.

This.

[mcbogart]

Well I had Bigelow, Speilberg, Lee, Affleck and Haneke....I got Haneke...but missed Russell and the Beasts guy (did ANYONE see that coming?)

[Zuranthium]

Fuuuuuck ya'll when I told you Affleck was on shaky ground and not respected yet as a serious Director by this AMPAS branch. I can't believe the snub actually happened after all that momentum he had seemingly built up, though.

[MVP of West Hollywood]

Well I had Bigelow, Speilberg, Lee, Affleck and Haneke....I got Haneke...but missed Russell and the Beasts guy (did ANYONE see that coming?)

*raises hand*. When I saw Beasts I knew it would be a decent bet for Director. It's the most Director-heavy movie in the whole race, even more than ZDT. And it and its story getting to the show was clearly something AMPAs would be into

With that said I can't brag because I made a bunch of other pretty bad predictions. Like putting in Skyfall in BP

[Eternal]

everyone changing their GOLD RUSGH PREDICTIONS FOR Spielberg?

[Eternal]

Well I had Bigelow, Speilberg, Lee, Affleck and Haneke....I got Haneke...but missed Russell and the Beasts guy (did ANYONE see that coming?)

Sasha Stone NGNG.

[electric_storm]

Two of the nominees weren't even in the final poll. I can't with this lineup. Dead.