Best Supporting Actor: Post-BFCA/SAG/GG, 2

[RRA]

Sorry, should have written 1998-2001 then.

Yeah that's what I thought you meant. (Man I didn't like THE BEACH.)

It's one of those films where I think: "When I have a kid and (s)he's old enough: this would be one of the first movies I'd show him/her as and example of 'quality filmmaking'." Because it's fun, accessible, fast-paced and it's still unbelievably good. The Dark Knight would be another one. Shakespeare in Love comes to mind. Inception, Driving Miss Diasy, Moulin Rouge, The Truman Show, The Matrix. These are movies which I think are great and also provide an extremely fun ride.

Now that's an interesting topic AD should explore in a thread sometime.

It entirely depends on the line-up. If both Waltz and DiCaprio make it, it complicates things and the TLJ vs. DiCaprio race. De Niro could even be a factor, especially if he were to spoil at SAG (not impossible).

True. I have no reason to believe it, I just don't see Waltz/Leo both happening. just a gut feeling thing.

BTW, I'm surprised Sam Jackson didn't get anymore traction than he has. Its the first time in God knows how many years when Sam Jackson in a movie wasn't simply playing "Sam Jackson." (The only variety is eyepatch or not?) He was great. Shit its wonderful when a movie has two great villains.

[oliksa]

It entirely depends on the line-up. If both Waltz and DiCaprio make it, it complicates things and the TLJ vs. DiCaprio race. De Niro could even be a factor, especially if he were to spoil at SAG (not impossible).

That's what I think, too. If De Niro gets in he also has a small chance.

[HollyG]

Pre-bafta:

1. TLJ
2. Arkin
3. PSH
4. De Niro
5. Dicaprio
alt: Waltz

[Atonenent.]

I was a a bit iffy about predicting Django everywhere except here, but after seeing the film, I'm not. DiCaprio is spectacular but his charcater doesn't have that much depth or screentime, while Waltz didn't do anything for me (it was Hans Landa everywhere) but he was almost lead. Anyway, I can see how one would place Django at #1 and none of these guys that high. I'm still going with Henry for the last spot.

[Submerge]

After seeing The Impossible, I agree that McGregor does make sense as a potential nominee. But then again, he hasn't shown up anywhere at all. I suppose the category is just too strong this year. I mean, it does seem right up the Academy's alley, but we really have to step back and remind ourselves that surprises are rare. Much more likely than not, he's out.

I often think we're better predictors when we don't see the films in contention.

[DirkDiggler]

After seeing The Impossible, I agree that McGregor does make sense as a potential nominee. But then again, he hasn't shown up anywhere at all. I suppose the category is just too strong this year. I mean, it does seem right up the Academy's alley, but we really have to step back and remind ourselves that surprises are rare. Much more likely than not, he's out.

I often think we're better predictors when we don't see the films in contention.

If there are any surprises this year, it's going to be this category.

SAG didn't see Django in time (so we're kinda clueless), Beasts ineligibility so we don't know with Henry, the possibility of AMPAS may go for a Bond film + Bardem, and a first-timer making sense....

It also seems likely... a first timer would get dragged along with it's nominated star (which happens).

Chastain - Clarke
Wallis - Henry
Watts - McGregor

I wouldn't say he's out.

And you never know with McConaughey.

This is a very funky category that probably won't match the SAGs. A surprise is bound to happen here.

[Submerge]

If there are any surprises this year, it's going to be this category.

SAG didn't see Django in time (so we're kinda clueless), Beasts ineligibility so we don't know with Henry, the possibility of AMPAS may go for a Bond film + Bardem, and a first-timer making sense....

It also seems likely... a first timer would get dragged along with it's nominated star (which happens).

Chastain - Clarke
Wallis - Henry
Watts - McGregor

I wouldn't say he's out.

And you never know with McConaughey.

This is a very funky category that probably won't match the SAGs. A surprise is bound to happen here.

Well, I'm not necessarily saying he's out. I definitely think he has a chance. This is one of those dramatic, teary performances that Oscar voters obviously like. And, even more, they'll already be watching the film due to Naomi's buzz, but - then again - that didn't help him with other awards bodies.

We'll see. I agree that this category is incredibly volatile. BAFTA will be important. I mean, who knows? Maybe McGregor will even show up?

[HoneyDarling]

If there are any surprises this year, it's going to be this category.

SAG didn't see Django in time (so we're kinda clueless), Beasts ineligibility so we don't know with Henry, the possibility of AMPAS may go for a Bond film + Bardem, and a first-timer making sense....

It also seems likely... a first timer would get dragged along with it's nominated star (which happens).

Chastain - Clarke
Wallis - Henry
Watts - McGregor

I wouldn't say he's out.

And you never know with McConaughey.

This is a very funky category that probably won't match the SAGs. A surprise is bound to happen here.

What about Jackman - Redmayne?

[Jali]

McConaughey is the weaker of the contenders, imo. Arkin, DeNiro, Jones, DiCaprio and Waltz and in likely Best Picture nominees and we know people saw Beasts and The impossible because Wallis and Watts are strong contenders in best actress. McConaughey is the only reason to see Magic Mike, and SAG/GG snubs didn't help him to convince Academy to watch the film and his performance.

My pre:

01. Jones
02. Arkin
03. Hoffman
04. De Niro
05. Bardem

Bafta will tell us more.

[moviewatcher]

McConaughey is the weaker of the contenders, imo. Arkin, DeNiro, Jones, DiCaprio and Waltz and in likely Best Picture nominees and we know people saw Beasts and The impossible because Wallis and Watts are strong contenders in best actress. McConaughey is the only reason to see Magic Mike, and SAG/GG snubs didn't help him to convince Academy to watch the film and his performance.

My pre:

01. Jones
02. Arkin
03. Hoffman
04. De Niro
05. Bardem

Bafta will tell us more.

The thing about BAFTA is that they'll probably nominate bardem because of the british vote. The only way for us to know that bardem has some really big support other than just "the brits" is if he takes out one of the other nominees and not just fill the 5th spot. By this i mean: if either arkin, hoffman, De Niro or Jones aren't nominated and he plus another "5th slot" contender is nominated (DiCaprio, Waltz, MM, redmayne).

BAFTA will tell us one of two things about Skyfall:
1) The brits love Skyfall, but that doesn't mean it will get all these noms at the oscars
2) The brits aren't THAT in love with Skyfall, so the oscars sure as hell won't

[oliksa]

lmao, the Guardian predicts Sam Jackson in BSA

http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2013/...13-predictions

[electric_storm]

The recent Guild love for "Skyfall" has rekindled my faith in Bardem. He'll show up at BAFTA either way and I'm fairly certain Molina for "Frida" is the only time someone in this category has made BFCA, SAG and BAFTA and missed, so discount him at your peril. But I'm also still holding onto my hairbrained Henry prediction so I don't really have room for Bardem atm. This category is such a nightmare. I think McConaughey and Redmayne would be serious contenders in most years.

[crazyfists3600]

I would not be shocked by a Redmayne surprise nom. If he shows up at BAFTA instead of McGregor I may swap them out in my Oscar predictions.

[DirkDiggler]

I would not be shocked by a Redmayne surprise nom. If he shows up at BAFTA instead of McGregor I may swap them out in my Oscar predictions.

Ok.

[electric_storm]

As for the winner, I agree with a few people that Leo has the best shot of joining Harden in the no-SAG winner club of anyone since if he wins the Globe and actually gets nominated. He could be further abetted by the SAG throwing a blatant " thanks for doing something worthwhile again" award at DeNiro ala Chris Walken in 2002, which isn't far-fetched considering SAG loved SLP and DeNiro has never won an award there. Or TLJ could just sweep. Meh.

[Moviefreak]

As for the winner, I agree with a few people that Leo has the best shot of joining Harden in the no-SAG winner club of anyone since if he wins the Globe and actually gets nominated. He could be further abetted by the SAG throwing a blatant " thanks for doing something worthwhile again" award at DeNiro ala Chris Walken in 2002, which isn't far-fetched considering SAG loved SLP and DeNiro has never won an award there. Or TLJ could just sweep. Meh.

Well SAG liked Lincoln just as much and TLJ has never won there either.

[electric_storm]

Well SAG liked Lincoln just as much and TLJ has never won there either.

Indeed but such was also the case with Cooper and "Adaptation" in 2002 (Ensemble nominee) when he was sweeping. The SAG can get silly when a revered veteran comes out of obscurity and/or does more than sleepwalk through a film. I mean, how did Duvall win in 98? I guess you could say TLJ fits this description as well, but he isn't on quite the same level of reverence and he's never really left career wise.

[Moviefreak]

Indeed but such was also the case with Cooper and "Adaptation" in 2002 (Ensemble nominee) when he was sweeping. The SAG can get silly when a revered veteran comes out of obscurity and/or does more than sleepwalk through a film. I mean, how did Duvall win in 98? I guess you could say TLJ fits this description as well, but he isn't on quite the same level of reverence and he's never really left career wise.

I think you underestimate how much the industry loves and respects TLJ. Sure, DeNiro is a legend, but in a race between two un-awarded veterans, I'm not sure how much that will matter. Actors love TLJ and they would love to award him for this role. I don't think he'll have a problem at all winning the SAG. But, yes DeNiro is the clear runner-up there.

Plus, Lincoln winning three SAG awards makes sense.

[crazyfists3600]

TLJ is also having a great comeback year that kind of blows De Niro's out of the water

[babz]

I think you underestimate how much the industry loves and respects TLJ. Sure, DeNiro is a legend, but in a race between two un-awarded veterans, I'm not sure how much that will matter. Actors love TLJ and they would love to award him for this role. I don't think he'll have a problem at all winning the SAG. But, yes DeNiro is the clear runner-up there.

Plus, Lincoln winning three SAG awards makes sense.

I think Sally Field can win the SAG too. So it might even be four SAG awards.