Best Actress: Post-BFCA/SAG/GG, 4

[Rage Colored Glasses]

I think so.

I think the Edward Norton American History X nod is the biggest Lead shocker for me though. especially because of how controversial the movie was and the fight over it with the director too. And now, that website has him winning the Oscar with the re-do!?!? Like, wow. Where did that performance come from to get into the race. I remember NOTHING about it, other than the backstory of it getting made and stuff. Total blindside with that getting in the race.

I think he benefited from some of what you mentioned with Gay Harden and Harris and Pollock, with regards to being the cool alternative choice. Not to mention that in the late 90s he was essentially being hailed as the next DeNiro.

[Moviefreak]

I actually think one of the weirdest nominations ever was Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road. He did have some early buzz, but got nothing other than a Satellite nomination and it isn't like his film was really all that well liked nor was he a previous nominee/winner. I guess it would have made more sense had Winslet won the Oscar for RR, but I guess it helped him anyway that she was so buzzed that year and most people watched the film.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Plus Ledger's domination of no.1 votes created a screwy situation that year.

[Moviefreak]

Plus Ledger's domination of no.1 votes created a screwy situation that year.

True and I guess you can add that as another reason why Magge Gyllenhaal was nominated. Mo'Nique's monopoly of the number one votes.

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

Imagine how many people will misspell Quvenzhane. And what if they include the accent mark? The new hanging chad.

They can look for it on the FYC ads or go on IMDB, a lot of actors know about that website some of them have even mentioned it on interviews or in televised awards.

[Keirdancer]

1. Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence
3. Naomi Watts
4. Marion Cotillard
5. Rachel Weisz

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

Chastain
Cotillard
Lawrence
Wallis
Weisz

[RobYo]

(1) Jessica Chastain
(2) Jennifer Lawrence
(3) Naomi Watts
(4) Emmanuelle Riva
(5) Marion Cotillard

[Jali]

LOL, this just sounds like old people vs. technology.

OH... GOD....!! This means that Judi Dench is getting nominated for Marigold Hotel? Because one of the reasons she goes to the Marigold Hotel is because she has problems with the internet!!!

[Stéphane]

Winstead instead of Watts.

One can only dream.

[camille]

Also, what the hell could be more depressing than Away From Her and Julie Christie nearly won an Oscar for that, and in my opinion that was a very un-Oscary movie and Christie was unsympathetic in it, to me anyways. But her "plight" and "situation" in the movie was sympathetic of course, as is Riva's. If Christie could get in a cold movie about Alzheimer, I think Riva could make it too.

But Dame Julie Christie was a living legend, previous winner, who had all the precursors, including a SAG and Globe drama WIN...Riva can't compare to any of that.

[camille]

I don't get all the recent confidence in Weisz....

She will not have lots of BRIT support. Her film sunk without trace here. If anything the Brits will get behind Mirren...

Mirren is miles ahead of her. She has SAG and a likely BAFTA nod...

[Luffy]

Yeah but a lot of brits could support Watts instead. And some may go with Dench or even Smith for Quartet.


I don't underestimate the Brits power, it's just that way more likely to produce a suprising oscar nom when you got 2 americans, 1 mexican and a french actor and an Irish guy in a controversial movie.

Oldman is a good example. He ticked all the boxes, he was a brit in a good movie they love (and it derserved it for sure). He is a huge star. The movie was all about UK.

The gave him a nomination and they surely helped Meryl to win over Viola because of Tchatcher so they do have some importance.

But can they really rally their votes for Mirren when she is a terrible movie about an american director & Dench, Watts & Smith being others very decent options.


God i know they can, i'm just tring to deny it to myself.

[camille]

Yeah but a lot of brits could support Watts instead. And some may go with Dench or even Smith for Quartet.


I don't underestimate the Brits power, it's just that way more likely to produce a suprising oscar nom when you got 2 americans, 1 mexican and a french actor and an Irish guy in a controversial movie.

Oldman is a good example. He ticked all the boxes, he was a brit in a good movie they love (and it derserved it for sure). He is a huge star. The movie was all about UK.

The gave him a nomination and they surely helped Meryl to win over Viola because of Tchatcher so they do have some importance.

But can they really rally their votes for Mirren when she is a terrible movie about an american director & Dench, Watts & Smith being others very decent options.


God i know they can, i'm just tring to deny it to myself.

i think the Brits would be more likely to support Dench and Smith in supporting? Watts is NOT regarded as a Brit.

Don't underestimate the Brit love for Helen Mirren. She is adored over here!

[guido]

I actually think one of the weirdest nominations ever was Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road. He did have some early buzz, but got nothing other than a Satellite nomination and it isn't like his film was really all that well liked nor was he a previous nominee/winner. I guess it would have made more sense had Winslet won the Oscar for RR, but I guess it helped him anyway that she was so buzzed that year and most people watched the film.

The alternative was buying into Patel's ridiculous category fraud.

[Blasty]

But Dame Julie Christie was a living legend, previous winner, who had all the precursors, including a SAG and Globe drama WIN...Riva can't compare to any of that.

LOL I knew someone would miss the point! I wasn't comparing the actors! Obviously I know Christie is a famous Hollywood star! I only meant it is possible for AMPAS to watch and endure a difficult movie to do with old age, suffering/dying, ect. and nominate it. Riva obviously is lacking the built in advantages of being a famous Hollywood legend - I think we all know that. I was merely addressing those who keep saying things like, "Have you seen Amour?!? No way the Academy is going to watch that" and pointing out that the Academy has watched and nominated difficult movies before.

In the end, I would not be surprised to see her not get in or even Marion to miss. But they both are in the thick of it.

[tututaya]

Is anyone else "concerned" that because Wallis wasn't eligible for SAG and didn't get a Globe nod that she might be overlooked or forgotten by the actor branch of AMPAS. I fefeeling like she might not make it.

1. Watts
2. Lawrence
3. Chastain
4. Cotillard
5. Dench/ Mirren/ or Wallis

[McTeague]

LOL I knew someone would miss the point! I wasn't comparing the actors! Obviously I know Christie is a famous Hollywood star! I only meant it is possible for AMPAS to watch and endure a difficult movie to do with old age, suffering/dying, ect. and nominate it. Riva obviously is lacking the built in advantages of being a famous Hollywood legend - I think we all know that. I was merely addressing those who keep saying things like, "Have you seen Amour?!? No way the Academy is going to watch that" and pointing out that the Academy has watched and nominated difficult movies before.

In the end, I would not be surprised to see her not get in or even Marion to miss. But they both are in the thick of it.

I mean, they nominated Emily Watson in Breaking the Fucking Waves. If they nominated that, they can nominate Riva, Plus, Watson had even be outshone all season by the other Cannes actress, Brenda Blethyn, whose movie was a BP nominee, unlike Watson's. And at least some may remember Riva from Hiroshima, whereas Watson was 100% unknown.

[Blasty]

I mean, they nominated Emily Watson in Breaking the Fucking Waves. If they nominated that, they can nominate Riva, Plus, Watson had even be outshone all season by the other Cannes actress, Brenda Blethyn, whose movie was a BP nominee, unlike Watson's. And at least some may remember Riva from Hiroshima, whereas Watson was 100% unknown.

Excellent point. And of course Watson was even snubbed by SAG (they went for veteran Gena Rowlands in Unhook the Stars! LOL in the year that was '96, it's quite funny that's who SAG went for), just like Riva was. Sometimes a performance is SO great though. that even though it comes from a foreign or little known entity, AMPAS will nominate it, if it's promoted at least. Oh, SAG, they can be so embarrassing sometimes in who they snub and who they nominate, so out of touch.

[erikdean]

Is anyone else "concerned" that because Wallis wasn't eligible for SAG and didn't get a Globe nod that she might be overlooked or forgotten by the actor branch of AMPAS. I fefeeling like she might not make it.

Have you not read the last 876 posts?