Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
Other
And why would they vote for Riva instead of Weisz? Weisz has the advantage of being in an English language role though both their films are quite bleak and seem like films AMPAS wouldn't normally touch, but in such a crazy year I suppose anything is possible (Weisz also has an important critic win not just a Globe nod).Originally Posted by with_one_voice
I was talking in general, that's all. Not about Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea. Though it is amazing how far she has come - I definitely didn't think she would get any of what she's gotten and ya gotta admit she's in a much better position than any of us could have expected.
But I agree it is not the sort of performance that usually gets in. But it is more fun for me to imagine we get ANYTHING but the SAG nominees, that's for sure.
Her performance is quite showy; the film is the problem not her performance.
Just my dream:
Chastain
Lawrence
Weisz
Cotillard
And the last name I'd to see a big surprise. Someone like Michelle Williams, Mary Elisabeth Winstead, Keira Knightley, Emayatzi Corinealdi, Linda Cardellini, Jennifer Garner... (add the name you like, but not Riva , Mirren or Watts)
Because Amour has a much higher profile than The Deep Blue Sea. It's had more buzz all year, it has more cachet by virtue of its director, it's backed by a stronger distributor, and although it's depressing (as both are), it's more straightforward and less stylized.
Also, what the hell could be more depressing than Away From Her and Julie Christie nearly won an Oscar for that, and in my opinion that was a very un-Oscary movie and Christie was unsympathetic in it, to me anyways. But her "plight" and "situation" in the movie was sympathetic of course, as is Riva's. If Christie could get in a cold movie about Alzheimer, I think Riva could make it too.
I mean, was anyone predicting Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart? Honestly. I'm not predicting Rachel Weisz right now, but I wouldn't be shocked if she got it since she at least won NYFCC and showed up at the Golden Globes. Sometimes there's no rhyme or reason for predicting someone other than it being a gut prediction and there's nothing wrong with that. There's no need for long winded analysis for every single choice/prediction made.
Don't forget 3) and probably most importantly that she was up against an actress who didn't really campaign in a film that was the polar opposite from typical AMPAS tastes.
I'm not predicting her, but I think those that are assume that this is a passion performance that will get #1 votes.
I can just see this year being one where no one realizes they like an out there performance becuase it isn't getting talked about and then it just gets in.
But yes, it really helps if, like Maggie G., you're already in a movie that all of AMPAS has to see anyway so they'll get a good look at you. Marcia Gay Harden was a good example - the film was being talked about as the cool alternative choice, and Ed Harris in particular was talked about, and of course she missed Golden Globes and SAG but it was SUCH an Oscarbaity performances and of course their fave role in the category is supportive wife, plus she really was a lead, so that was a perfect storm for her happening. James Coburn too - everyone saw Afflcition because of Nick Nolte, and if you saw it, you couldn't help but see that Coburn did amazing work even if the precursors failed to. How funny how both Gay Harden and Coburn both ended up WINNING in the end with no TV precursor support.
I agree with this completely and I was kind of saying the same thing a few weeks ago in the Supporting Actress thread, but I just can't find many contenders like this. The closest one is Ewan McGregor.
Wallis for the win!!!!
Just think if this had been around for Crash v. Brokeback.
If they really go for The Impossible, I can see this happening. Something like a Linda Cardellini seems very unlikely though but it would be hilarious if it happened since she helped to finance her campaign.
Imagine how many people will misspell Quvenzhane. And what if they include the accent mark? The new hanging chad.Wallis for the win!!!!
Just think if this had been around for Crash v. Brokeback.
People like Linda Cardellini don't get in like that though. She's not a TLJ or a Laura Linney. She'd need an actual campaign and some buzz. Even Damien Bichir had a SAG nod and campaigned like his life was on the line.
She also did it too late.
Nooo!
Oh no I agree. There's no reason in the world for her to be a contender. Which is why it would be awesome for her to break through. But yeah, someone like her, an unknown (well...she basically is despite Freaks and Geeks/Brokeback Mountain) really needs help like a Harvey or other mini studio backing her at least, just like Melissa Leo had with Frozen River. Yeah, A Better Life actually had support from it's studio. Like, so did say, Gosling with Half-Nelson too.
And Gosling also had a SAG nomination, if I'm not mistaken.
I think so.
I think the Edward Norton American History X nod is the biggest Lead shocker for me though. especially because of how controversial the movie was and the fight over it with the director too. And now, that website has him winning the Oscar with the re-do!?!? Like, wow. Where did that performance come from to get into the race. I remember NOTHING about it, other than the backstory of it getting made and stuff. Total blindside with that getting in the race.
Well, at least he was already an Oscar nominee at the time and it was a really buzzed about role. Plus, he was considered to be like the next big thing in Hollywood.
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