Best Actress: Post-BFCA/SAG/GG, 4

[siowafc]

1 Chastain
1 Lawrence

2 Watts

3Mirren

4 Weisz

5 Cotillard
5 Wallis
5 Riva

I'm glad to see you are taking some risks with your predictions this year!

[with_one_voice]

Why are people predicting Weisz ?

[Eduardo Zuckerberg]

1. Lawrence
2. Chastain
3. Cotillard
4. Watts
5. Wallis

6. Mirren
7. Riva
8. Weisz

[guido]

Why are people predicting Weisz ?

I guess because crazier nominations have happened.

[babz]

Why are people predicting Weisz ?

Because she would be the 'left field' nominee if there was one. Rooney Mara got in with only GG nomination. lol

[erikdean]

Because she would be the 'left field' nominee if there was one. Rooney Mara got in with only GG nomination. lol

Rooney Mara got in because 1) she was a first time nominee and 2) she fit the age/character demographic that AMPAS likes in Best Actress

[Rage Colored Glasses]

She also has the pretty girl deglamming factor in her favor.

[with_one_voice]

Rooney Mara had a baity deglam role in a lucrative mainstream film from an Oscar-nom'd director with awards/guild support in a number of categories. Weisz is in a slow and stylized film that made no money and will have no support in any other categories. Anyone who thinks she's likelier than dame Helen Mirren in a baity biopic with GG and most importantly, SAG, nominations has no idea how to predict the Oscars.

[erikdean]

She also has the pretty girl deglamming factor in her favor.

Yeah, I was lumping a lot things in the 'character demographic' part. Not to underline a point too much but she's also a character who is raped, debased and forced into sex for money. AMPAS has a special place for actresses that bare themselves like that and it's called Best Actress.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Yeah, I was lumping a lot things in the 'character demographic' part. Not to underline a point too much but she's also a character who is raped, debased and forced into sex for money. AMPAS has a special place for actresses that bare themselves like that and it's called Best Actress.

Agreed. I think also she was fortunate to be competing against a performance like Swinton's for that fifth spot.

[guido]

And because Tilda Swinton kind of didn't give a shit when she was given an Oscar

[francesco-natale]

I'm glad to see you are taking some risks with your predictions this year!

To be honest I have not idea about the 4th and the 5th. I consider Lawrence, Chastain and Watts locked now ... except that nothing could surprise me (except a Dench or a Streep or a Smith nomination). Today I'm feeling this way (Mirren and Weizs), the next poll will be different, I'm sure.

I have seen a lot of contenders now (but not Lawrence and Chastain yet) : Riva and Weisz still have my vote.

[babz]

Yeah, I was lumping a lot things in the 'character demographic' part. Not to underline a point too much but she's also a character who is raped, debased and forced into sex for money. AMPAS has a special place for actresses that bare themselves like that and it's called Best Actress.

Yeah but she still only had the GG nomination if we are going by just stats.

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

Apparently the E-voting is far worse than initially reported, so we might have some surprising nominations in every category if not every member is able to vote?

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/rac...+-+The+Race%29

[guido]

Apparently the E-voting is far worse than initially reported, so we might have some surprising nominations in every category if not every member is able to vote?

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/rac...+-+The+Race%29

How dare you insinuate Mirren and Riva will be nowhere to be seen.

[filmy]

Apparently the E-voting is far worse than initially reported, so we might have some surprising nominations in every category if not every member is able to vote?

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/rac...+-+The+Race%29

LOL, this just sounds like old people vs. technology.

[with_one_voice]

Riva is out!

Abigail Breslin and Saoirse Ronan's votes will carry more weight this year! Youth power!

[babz]

How dare you insinuate Mirren and Riva will be nowhere to be seen.

will old people vote for Riva? lmao Seems like she needs broader support than that. I understand the older voters going for Mirren but skeptical for Riva.

[Blasty]

Yeah but she still only had the GG nomination if we are going by just stats.

Well, you can get in with just the Globe nod. And people get SAG nods as well who DON'T get in. Of course, you always look foolish when betting against actors who have gotten both Globe AND Sag nods, but you CAN get still get snubbed even with both of those and sometimes it's just more fun to try to guess where the surprise might happen. And sometimes the nominations go basically according to plan and all the Double SAG/Globe nominees are nominated. But I really DON'T think this will be one of those years - this year more than any other in like a decade feels ripe for surprises. Just to throw a few whoppers out there - I'm pretty sure neither Edward Norton in American History X or Tommy Lee Jones in In The Valley of Elah were in 95% of the pundits Top 10, let alone top 5, but sometimes shockers DO happen. I think this is the best year in like forever to bet against the house and go in with some wild picks just for the fun of it.

[with_one_voice]

Well, you can get in with just the Globe nod. And people get SAG nods as well who DON'T get in. Of course, you always look foolish when betting against actors who have gotten both Globe AND Sag nods, but you CAN get still get snubbed even with both of those and sometimes it's just more fun to try to guess where the surprise might happen. And sometimes the nominations go basically according to plan and all the Double SAG/Globe nominees are nominated. But I really DON'T think this will be one of those years - this year more than any other in like a decade feels ripe for surprises. Just to throw a few whoppers out there - I'm pretty sure neither Edward Norton in American History X or Tommy Lee Jones in In The Valley of Elah were in 95% of the pundits Top 10, let alone top 5, but sometimes shockers DO happen. I think this is the best year in like forever to bet against the house and go in with some wild picks just for the fun of it.

But even if someone were to try to predict a surprise in this category this year, why would they choose Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea? I'm convinced that anyone who is predicting her has either 1) not seen the film, or 2) knows nothing of AMPAS preferences, because that film is not something Oscar voters are going to randomly support en masse. Comparing The Deep Blue Sea to some pro-American military vet piece from Paul Haggis (In the Valley of Elah) is silly.