Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
Why are people predicting Weisz ?
She also has the pretty girl deglamming factor in her favor.
Rooney Mara had a baity deglam role in a lucrative mainstream film from an Oscar-nom'd director with awards/guild support in a number of categories. Weisz is in a slow and stylized film that made no money and will have no support in any other categories. Anyone who thinks she's likelier than dame Helen Mirren in a baity biopic with GG and most importantly, SAG, nominations has no idea how to predict the Oscars.
I have seen a lot of contenders now (but not Lawrence and Chastain yet) : Riva and Weisz still have my vote.
Apparently the E-voting is far worse than initially reported, so we might have some surprising nominations in every category if not every member is able to vote?
Riva is out!
Abigail Breslin and Saoirse Ronan's votes will carry more weight this year! Youth power!