I like to think most of them are honest and will watch the movies before voting, but they can't watch everything and actors will surely watch the performances with the most buzz and precursors. After all academy actors branch's members have to watch enough movies to nominate people in 4 different categories.
So Ithink they will watch Chastain & Lawrence first, being the favorites and their movies being in contention for Best Picture too, and a lot of them will probably agree with the general consensus they are good and have them in their ballot.
Then it's up to them to watch movies which aren't in contention for anything else, which didn't get good reviews or/& are pretty bad, movies they probably would never pay to watch it
I think they most of them will choose to see Watts first because of the recent buzz, it's in English and the movie being a much academy friendly movie than Marion.
After that maybe actors will probably go for any of Weisz or maybe Riva's movies.
Wallis biggest chance iIMO is not only that she is good, it's her film being in contention for a nomination for BP.
If I was an academy member and that I had to watch a lot of movies to cast my ballot, knowing Im the king of proscratination and that work & life would mix with all this, right know I would have ZD30, SLP, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi, Django Unchained, Beasts of the Southern Wild, the Master, the Sessions on my 'to watch absolutely list'.
Then i will have to choose what to see between the Impossible, Flight, Rust & Bone, Amour, the Deep blue sea, Hitchcock, Magic Mike and it seems to me that after hours of movies, i would go for Naomi & Denzel because they were the ones with the most buzz from others awards groups.