Best Actress: Post-BFCA/SAG/GG, 3

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

It's possible BAFTA won't be of any help this year, especially if Helen Hunt shows up in lead, remember last year they nominated Bejo in lead despite her showing up in supporting everywhere else. This year Hunt has received a few lead mentions from critic awards including the London Film Critic awards.

[filmy]

It's possible BAFTA won't be of any help this year, especially if Helen Hunt shows up in lead, remember last year they nominated Bejo in lead despite her showing up in supporting everywhere else. This year Hunt has received a few lead mentions from critic awards including the London Film Critic awards.

I kind of doubt Hunt is nominated anyway, regardless of category

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

It's possible BAFTA won't be of any help this year, especially if Helen Hunt shows up in lead, remember last year they nominated Bejo in lead despite her showing up in supporting everywhere else. This year Hunt has received a few lead mentions from critic awards including the London Film Critic awards.

So...
Chastain
Lawrence
Hunt
Cotillard
Watts OR Riva OR Mirren?

[guany]

So...
Chastain
Lawrence
Hunt
Cotillard
Watts OR Riva OR Mirren?

Or Wallis.

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

Or Wallis.

[with_one_voice]

I'm not sure that BAFTA will go for Hunt in either category.

[filmy]

I'm really feeling a Lil Q snub on the horizon.

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

I'm really feeling a Lil Q snub on the horizon.

I still think Wallis can get a nomination even if she misses BAFTA; Hughes missed the Globes and BAFTA and still received a nomination (she was nominated for the BFCA in the young actress category only).

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

We don't know that Wallis would have gotten into SAG, that's a guess at best. Considering how poorly she (and the film) have generally performed I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that she could have been snubbed had she been eligible. If she gets a BAFTA nom she'll be in the same boat as Riva. Riva has obviously gotten more critics awards but those don't really matter that much. What matters is will the academy go for an old dying French woman at the end of her career or a very young American girl at the very start of hers. I've never seen such a wide end of the spectrum choice as this is probably all of my years of watching the Oscars and it will be a nailbiter.

But, since the nominees are announced alphabetically we'll know before Wallis's name is even said (or not said) if she's getting in. If Mirren and Riva make it Wallis is toast.

UNLESS....the final name starting with W isn't Watts, it's Wallis.

That would be......the happiest moment of my Oscar year.

Considering SAG loves nominating kid performances (Osment, Bell, Fanning, Highmore, Hughes, Wood, Breslin, Steinfeld), I think Wallis would have been nominated if she were eligible.

[Solarie]

I don't think Wallis is happening Nice try though

[Habsburg]

Never werk w/kids (they really should be at a German speaking Swiss boarding school) or animals.

[tnb]

I've been wondering about our first-time nominee. Wallis NEEDS a BAFTA nod, at this point. I don't think I'll be able to predict her if she doesn't get one.

As for Riva, missing the Globes and SAG was a big deal, but I've been doing some research, and I've found that there are only two actors who gave fully foreign language performances to miss SAG and still get an Oscar nod: Javier Bardem for Biutiful, and Fernanda Montenegro.

Both of them had limited, yet strong precursor support. I'm only taking into consideration the televised awards, the three major film festivals (Cannes, Berlin, Venice), and the three major critics awards as well as NBR.

Bardem won Cannes and got a BAFTA nod.

Montenegro won Berlin, LAFCA, and NBR, and scored a Globe nod.

Riva has a bunch of silly, pointless awards that nobody should care about, but the important stuff is her LAFCA win and BFCA nomination. Those two, plus a BAFTA nod and possibly a NSFC win, may make me want to predict her in the end... especially if Wallis misses BAFTA.

That said, having seen the film I'm still having a lot of difficulty seeing her actually get a nomination. LOL, I hate this year.

Wasn't it rumored that Riva just didn't win in Cannes so that the film was eligible for Palme d'Or, which was seen as a prize for her and Trintignant as well. In terms of critic awards mention she's clearly ahead of Bardem as of now and from the point of her career she's an adequate compairson to Montenegro. I really don't she's in a much weaker position that those two were although I still don't think she's gonna make it but it certainly wouldn't be unheard of.

[Aurelius]

Wasn't it rumored that Riva just didn't win in Cannes so that the film was eligible for Palme d'Or, which was seen as a prize for her and Trintignant as well. In terms of critic awards mention she's clearly ahead of Bardem as of now and from the point of her career she's an adequate compairson to Montenegro. I really don't she's in a much weaker position that those two were although I still don't think she's gonna make it but it certainly wouldn't be unheard of.

Jury president Nanni Moretti said as much in the press conference after the awards ceremony.

[McTeague]

Finally saw Nanny’s perf. Odd that after Mulholland or Painted Veil, she’s going to be nominated for this, but that’s how Oscar always goes (Nic won for her worst perf!). Technically I think the performance is flawless and astonishingly lived-in, but yeah, she has very little to do, no matter how well she does it. Say, Rachel Weisz makes more technical missteps in “The Deep Blue Sea”, but at least she has a challenging character with an intense evolution to portray and make believable. I’ll be glad Nanny gets an Oscar nod, but only because that will keep her in the spotlight and getting interesting projects, and I hope she doesn’t win for this and generates backlash.

[Aurelius]

Finally saw Nanny’s perf. Odd that after Mulholland or Painted Veil, she’s going to be nominated for this, but that’s how Oscar always goes (Nic won for her worst perf!). Technically I think the performance is flawless and astonishingly lived-in, but yeah, she has very little to do, no matter how well she does it. Say, Rachel Weisz makes more technical missteps in “The Deep Blue Sea”, but at least she has a challenging character with an intense evolution to portray and make believable. I’ll be glad Nanny gets an Oscar nod, but only because that will keep her in the spotlight and getting interesting projects, and I hope she doesn’t win for this and generates backlash.

What did you think about the rest of the film?

[McTeague]

What did you think about the rest of the film?

It's defintely not offensive or insulting in the least, it's just so narrow in scope (it doesn't want to move an inch from this family's perspective, precisely so to not be offensive towards other victims) that it doesn't amount to much more than an intense but probably forgettable emotional experience. Id' give it a 7 out of 10.

[camille]

Finally saw Nanny’s perf. Odd that after Mulholland or Painted Veil, she’s going to be nominated for this, but that’s how Oscar always goes (Nic won for her worst perf!). Technically I think the performance is flawless and astonishingly lived-in, but yeah, she has very little to do, no matter how well she does it. Say, Rachel Weisz makes more technical missteps in “The Deep Blue Sea”, but at least she has a challenging character with an intense evolution to portray and make believable. I’ll be glad Nanny gets an Oscar nod, but only because that will keep her in the spotlight and getting interesting projects, and I hope she doesn’t win for this and generates backlash.

I wouldn't sweat it, sweetheart. Nanny certainly isn't winning.

[Blasty]

Wasn't it rumored that Riva just didn't win in Cannes so that the film was eligible for Palme d'Or, which was seen as a prize for her and Trintignant as well. In terms of critic awards mention she's clearly ahead of Bardem as of now and from the point of her career she's an adequate compairson to Montenegro. I really don't she's in a much weaker position that those two were although I still don't think she's gonna make it but it certainly wouldn't be unheard of.

Central Station was MUCH more Oscar friendly though. I mean, it had a cute kid in it! That seemed to be the thing that year for foreign language films, what with the precocious child in Life is Beautiful too.

[Moviefreak]

I'm really feeling a Lil Q snub on the horizon.

I'm kind of starting to agree. Unless she gets a BAFTA nomination, I'm not going to predict her.

I think we can easily wind up with the SAG lineup here.

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

I'm kind of starting to agree. Unless she gets a BAFTA nomination, I'm not going to predict her.

I think we can easily wind up with the SAG lineup here.

Yeah, Tapley mentions in his latest article that we're underestimating Mirren, though he says he's only confident in Chastain and Lawrence.

"while Helen Mirren -- SAG- and Globe-nominated for her performance in "Hitchcock" -- could ride the British vote to a nomination many aren't expecting for her due to the film's critical reception. (It has, however, been more positively received overseas, particularly in the BAFTA set.)"....The only two I feel confident will land nominations are the two most expect to duke it out for the win: Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. It's a race!"
Read more at http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/...DkP02JPJoKC.99