1. Chastain
2. Lawrence
3. Watts
4. Wallis
5. Riva
1. Chastain
2. Lawrence
3. Watts
4. Wallis
5. Riva
Lawrence
Chastain
The top two are locked and Jennifer is the favorite for the win at this point with SAG ensemble, Weinstein...
Watts
Seems to have enough support from the actors branch to get nominated but not win.
Wallis/Mirren
I truly think that Mirren filled Wallis spot at SAG because of ineligibility. Those two will be battling out for the fourth spot. Mirren has British backing but Wallis has her own group of supporters in the Academy that love her film too. If Wallis gets BAFTA nom, i'm gonna go with her; if not she's out. Funny enough these two are both FoxSearchlight, so i'm certain one will get in since Fox has a good track record with getting their actors and films nominated.
Cotillard/Riva
Cotillard feels filler to me, I mean she's hit everything but Riva seems to be in the stronger film, with stronger critics support and is certain for a foreign language nomination; I think the Academy will like her film more as well. The reason these two are in fifth is because they are both in foreign language films and it's hard to get nominated for this. Also Riva did not get the SAG even though she was eligible so she is the weakest contender at this point. These two are also from Sony, so i'm sure one will get in as well.
Last edited by babz; 12-23-2012 at 11:18 AM.
I pretty much hate everything about this.Originally Posted by xinefan
Yeah Rivaholics and Naomaniacs have truly taken over the Keirmaniacs thrown for craziest fangirl base on AD. Thank God for Kidmania or otherwise I'm not sure how anyone would stay sane this season. Let's just hope LoA doesn't figure out he's unbanned or we're all fucked.
Beasts of the Southern Wild isn't like a film such as Precious. Precious was so much more popular and a part of pop-culture. Beasts of the Southern Wild has lost a lot of it's buzz and is really only talked about by cinephiles and not the general public, and with all these other big shiny movies coming out, Beasts could be forgotten totally. it's so sad to look on IMBD and it has no major awards yet D:
plus just searching around the internet I've found plenty of people saying she shouldn't be nominated because she isn't really showing a craft of acting. but we won't get into that again, I'm just saying it's definitely out there . The critics haven't re-vived it enough to get people talking about it again like they were this summer.
Riva has the advantage that her film is just opening and it has people talking. I think it's already busted through the 'foreign film ghetto' as they say. I believe she will get a BAFTA nomination as the film seems to be well liked in England and she's already a BAFTA nominee
I'm starting to think Cotillard could miss and the lineup ends up being Watts, Chastain, Lawrence, Riva ..........and either Wallis or Mirren. I don't see people putting Cotillard at #1 and you need at least some #1 votes. ://
I said this in the other thread to Atonenent, who said the same thing as you, but I wouldn't be so quick to declare Cotillard and Watts completely safe even if they miss BAFTA. There are examples of people hitting BFCA + GG + SAG (+ no BAFTA), and then still missing the Oscar nod, and this year's race is complicated by Wallis' SAG ineligibility. Since most of us assume that Wallis would've gotten a SAG nod, then the SAG nod for either Cotillard, Mirren, or Watts (we'll never know for certain which one) would not have happened. Let's say Cotillard would've missed SAG had Wallis been eligible. In that case, then without the ineligibility, Cotillard would only have BFCA + GG. If she were to then go on to miss BAFTA, she would (in this theoretical) only have BFCA + GG, which is not such a good combo. Point being, if Cotillard or Watts miss BAFTA, I don't think they're completely safe.
If BAFTA comes down like this: Chastain/Cotillard/Lawrence/Riva/Wallis, then we have:
Chastain, Cotillard, Lawrence -- all 4 precursors
Mirren -- GG + SAG
Riva -- BFCA + BAFTA
Watts -- BFCA + GG + SAG
Wallis -- BFCA + BAFTA
The above situation would produce a bit of a mess, with these four contenders having between 2-3 of the major precursors each. At that point, it really could be any two of them getting in at Oscar.
Last edited by with_one_voice; 12-23-2012 at 11:55 AM.
We don't know that Wallis would have gotten into SAG, that's a guess at best. Considering how poorly she (and the film) have generally performed I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that she could have been snubbed had she been eligible. If she gets a BAFTA nom she'll be in the same boat as Riva. Riva has obviously gotten more critics awards but those don't really matter that much. What matters is will the academy go for an old dying French woman at the end of her career or a very young American girl at the very start of hers. I've never seen such a wide end of the spectrum choice as this is probably all of my years of watching the Oscars and it will be a nailbiter.
But, since the nominees are announced alphabetically we'll know before Wallis's name is even said (or not said) if she's getting in. If Mirren and Riva make it Wallis is toast.
UNLESS....the final name starting with W isn't Watts, it's Wallis.
That would be......the happiest moment of my Oscar year.
"And Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea."
I say my Oscar year."And Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea."
Although as long as Wallis made it in I would accept Weisz replacing Watts.
I'm sorry but Riva's out and anyone who argues she isn't needs to get a grip. I've been a BIG supporter of Wallis the entire season but even I've come to my senses, she's out as well (although I think Wallis has a better shot than Riva by a mile).
1. Lawrence
2. Chastain
3. Watts
4. Cotillard
5. Mirren
6.Weizs/Wallis
7.Riva
In a million years, when kids go to school, they gonna know;
once there was a Hushpuppy, and she was nominated for an Oscar.
Yesterday I got my hair cut (here in Des Moines, Iowa) and I was talking to this woman probably in her 40's.
I was telling her how I just saw Hitchcock and Life of Pi ....and she said, seriously, " I want to see that Tsunami movie "
and I was like...oh you mean The Impossible ?
I've been wondering about our first-time nominee. Wallis NEEDS a BAFTA nod, at this point. I don't think I'll be able to predict her if she doesn't get one.
As for Riva, missing the Globes and SAG was a big deal, but I've been doing some research, and I've found that there are only two actors who gave fully foreign language performances to miss SAG and still get an Oscar nod: Javier Bardem for Biutiful, and Fernanda Montenegro.
Both of them had limited, yet strong precursor support. I'm only taking into consideration the televised awards, the three major film festivals (Cannes, Berlin, Venice), and the three major critics awards as well as NBR.
Bardem won Cannes and got a BAFTA nod.
Montenegro won Berlin, LAFCA, and NBR, and scored a Globe nod.
Riva has a bunch of silly, pointless awards that nobody should care about, but the important stuff is her LAFCA win and BFCA nomination. Those two, plus a BAFTA nod and possibly a NSFC win, may make me want to predict her in the end... especially if Wallis misses BAFTA.
That said, having seen the film I'm still having a lot of difficulty seeing her actually get a nomination. LOL, I hate this year.
Huh? BAFTA has recently nominated films like The Help, The Descendants, True Grit, Precious, American Gangster, and Little Miss Sunshine for Best Film. Why on Earth would they not nominate Silver Linings Playbook? That film is sooo up their alley it isn't even funny.Silver Linings Playbook is too American for the BAFTAs, but it's an Oscar contender, so it's going to pop up in categories like Actress and Screenplay.
Aww!Yesterday I got my hair cut (here in Des Moines, Iowa) and I was talking to this woman probably in her 40's.
I was telling her how I just saw Hitchcock and Life of Pi ....and she said, seriously, " I want to see that Tsunami movie "
and I was like...oh you mean The Impossible ?
Yesterday, my invisible friend (from Cheyenne, Wyoming) was filing my nails. I was telling him how I hope to soon see The Impossible! I told him that this is the film about the Indian Ocean tsunami staring Naomi Watts. He told me he had never heard of "The Impossible", and proceeded to ask what a "tsunami" and a "Naomi Watts" are.
It's also possible Mirren misses the BAFTA like she did for The Last Station.
Yeah, I dunno why people are going on about SLP being too American for BAFTA. They've embraced plenty of really American movies.
So you basically agree with me that if Mirren is in, Wallis is out and if Cotillard is in, Riva is out?Beasts of the Southern Wild isn't like a film such as Precious. Precious was so much more popular and a part of pop-culture. Beasts of the Southern Wild has lost a lot of it's buzz and is really only talked about by cinephiles and not the general public, and with all these other big shiny movies coming out, Beasts could be forgotten totally. it's so sad to look on IMBD and it has no major awards yet D:
plus just searching around the internet I've found plenty of people saying she shouldn't be nominated because she isn't really showing a craft of acting. but we won't get into that again, I'm just saying it's definitely out there . The critics haven't re-vived it enough to get people talking about it again like they were this summer.
Riva has the advantage that her film is just opening and it has people talking. I think it's already busted through the 'foreign film ghetto' as they say. I believe she will get a BAFTA nomination as the film seems to be well liked in England and she's already a BAFTA nominee
I'm starting to think Cotillard could miss and the lineup ends up being Watts, Chastain, Lawrence, Riva ..........and either Wallis or Mirren. I don't see people putting Cotillard at #1 and you need at least some #1 votes. ://
Yes ! ^^
Below = me if Emmanuelle Riva isn't nominated on January 10th
This year is so strange in that there's a possibility of 3/4 acting categories will have no first timer. That, and Hitchcock barely hanging on, is why I think Wallis is in.
I don't understand why some people think Watts is above Cotillard, they have the same precursor support. Also, Tapley says that Watts is not as in as most people believe there has to be a reason for him to have said it. He must have spoken to members that didn't think so highly of her performance?
Eh, I think that Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty (both are American films, but OMGImportant), Les Miserables (well, duh) and Life of Pi (they love Ang Lee) are probably getting nominated for Best Film, but Silver Linings Playbook will fight for the fifth spot there, and I can see the BAFTAs going for Argo, Django Unchained or even Amour. It's NOT getting nominated for Director and Actor and I'm still not sure about De Niro's chances there. As I said, it's definitely getting nominated for Actress and Screenplay, but I don't think the film's going to be a major player there.I've been wondering about our first-time nominee. Wallis NEEDS a BAFTA nod, at this point. I don't think I'll be able to predict her if she doesn't get one.
As for Riva, missing the Globes and SAG was a big deal, but I've been doing some research, and I've found that there are only two actors who gave fully foreign language performances to miss SAG and still get an Oscar nod: Javier Bardem for Biutiful, and Fernanda Montenegro.
Both of them had limited, yet strong precursor support. I'm only taking into consideration the televised awards, the three major film festivals (Cannes, Berlin, Venice), and the three major critics awards as well as NBR.
Bardem won Cannes and got a BAFTA nod.
Montenegro won Berlin, LAFCA, and NBR, and scored a Globe nod.
Riva has a bunch of silly, pointless awards that nobody should care about, but the important stuff is her LAFCA win and BFCA nomination. Those two, plus a BAFTA nod and possibly a NSFC win, may make me want to predict her in the end... especially if Wallis misses BAFTA.
That said, having seen the film I'm still having a lot of difficulty seeing her actually get a nomination. LOL, I hate this year.
Huh? BAFTA has recently nominated films like The Help, The Descendants, True Grit, Precious, American Gangster, and Little Miss Sunshine for Best Film. Why on Earth would they not nominate Silver Linings Playbook? That film is sooo up their alley it isn't even funny.
Riva and Wallis need the BAFTA nomination. And we need a newbie, so I guess one of them will sneak in.
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