Best Supporting Actress: Post-BFCA/SAG/GG, 2

[dlong5665]

But if you think about it, he probably was 4 or 5th at SAG. With Jones, Arkin and De Niro over him.

Nothing poins to that. I'd say he was third behind Jones and De Niro (who's film had major love at SAG). Arkin is trxtbook filler. A respected former winning vet in a BP nominee who doesn't stand a chance at winning. Bardem is still very WTF. Hoffman isn't filler at all. He's in a very divisive and cold film playing a very mean abd unlikeable character, but his performance inspired a lot of love and he's one of the most beloved actors working today. His combo of BFCA+SAG+Globe shows there's a lot of support for him.

I shouldn't say it's completely out of the realm of possibility because it's not but I can't see him missing unless they throw some serious curveball nominees at us. I really don't know what to make of this category.

[erikdean]

That.......actually looks pretty reasonable?? Gurl.....

I'm pretty locked on it.

[Submerge]

Fixed that for you.

No need to fix. We're talking about realistic lineups without The Master. That's the only one I can come up with! And I'm not predicting it, just throwing it out there. I suspect the writers like PTA too much to put him in jeopardy.

[erikdean]

No need to fix. We're talking about realistic lineups without The Master. That's the only one I can come up with! And I'm not predicting it, just throwing it out there. I suspect the writers like PTA too much to put him in jeopardy.

Oh, ha. Still, I don't think Amour is getting in. It's not a 'screenplay' film. It's an actors and directors film.

[babz]

Right now I'm predicting The Master to get 3, maybe 4 nominations: Hoffman, Screenplay, Directing, and maybe Picture. It's my #6 in Cinematography (behind Lincoln, Skyfall, ZDT, Life of Pi, and Django), so I certainly think it's possible, but I want to see what the ASC and BAFTA nominate first . I don't think Phoenix or Adams are going to happen.

I think 3 is too little. Picture,screenplay,Hoffman, cinematography and then Phoenix for a total of 5 noms. Adams is the only real question mark. (imo)

[guany]

I think 3 is too little. Picture,screenplay,Hoffman, cinematography and then Phoenix for a total of 5 noms. Adams is the only real question mark. (imo)

How is 3 too little? Boogie Nights got 3, would have had 4 with an expanded BP field. Magnolia had 3, and also would have had 4.

Heck, everyone is saying that The Master is this year's The Tree of Life... and that film only got 3 nominations.

[babz]

How is 3 too little? Boogie Nights got 3, would have had 4 with an expanded BP field. Magnolia had 3, and also would have had 4.

Heck, everyone is saying that The Master is this year's The Tree of Life... and that film only got 3 nominations.

Because i think it's stronger in technical categories than the acting ones. Like say they don't reward Phenoix and Adams, i think they'll throw a bone to the film in the other areas, heck it could even get a best score nom. I guess i tend to overestimate a bit rather than underestimate especially with a wildcard like this.

[tnb]

But if you think about it, he probably was 4 or 5th at SAG. With Jones, Arkin and De Niro over him.

and what leads you to believe this?
SAG has an entirely different voting system to AMPAS so it doesn't matter anyway. People are obviously too bored if they talk about PSH missing now, merry X Mas everyone

[guany]

Because i think it's stronger in technical categories than the acting ones. Like say they don't reward Phenoix and Adams, i think they'll throw a bone to the film in the other areas, heck it could even get a best score nom. I guess i tend to overestimate a bit rather than underestimate especially with a wildcard like this.

If the actors don't nominate Phoenix or Adams, I don't know why the Music Branch would feel like they have to reward the score, especially since they won't even know if Phoenix and Adams miss until all of the nominations, including their own, come out.

[DameMelissaLeo]

Dame Leo says,

Tis unbelievable! After weeks of me mocking the character actress Dowd I have learned something unimaginable! She is the AUNT of someone I went to high school with! Talk about karma hitting me in between the eyes! I must now champion character Dowd! She must get in! Especially over Princess Giselle!