Best Supporting Actor: Post-BFCA/SAG/GG

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

Oh man, I'm almost inclined to predict McGregor instead of McConaughey because despite having none of the precursors, Watts is being nominated so the film is being seen, and it's way more the Academy's cup of tea than Magic Mike. It would be SUCH an Oscar-ish thing to have McGregor get a surprise nomination.

[Moviefreak]

I would say that a Django shutout is likelier than DeNiro missing. I wouldn't read too much into the Globes snub since it was probably because he dissed them when they gave him the DeMille award. I never took McGregor seriously, but with so many high profile people coming out of the woodworks expressing their love for the film, I wonder if it could be a later bloomer. Dammit McTeague, I blame this on you.

Maybe you're right, but I feel like Django is peaking at the right time. It's just about to come out, the reviews are great, the BO will probably be as well, so the buzz on it is really building when it counts. I've been pretty confident on DeNiro for a while, but something's gotta give. Maybe it'll be Arkin then, but I kind of expect him to get a BAFTA nomination as well and I doubt he misses after hitting all the precursor's and for a top 3 Best Picture nominee no less.

As for McGregor, I just think he makes a lot of sense as that out of nowhere newbie nominee. If he gets a BAFTA nomination, there's no way I'm not predicting him.

[Donezo]

Maybe you're right, but I feel like Django is peaking at the right time. It's just about to come out, the reviews are great, the BO will probably be as well, so the buzz on it is really building when it counts. I've been pretty confident on DeNiro for a while, but something's gotta give. Maybe it'll be Arkin then, but I kind of expect him to get a BAFTA nomination as well and I doubt he misses after hitting all the precursor's and for a top 3 Best Picture nominee no less.

As for McGregor, I just think he makes a lot of sense as that out of nowhere newbie nominee. If he gets a BAFTA nomination, there's no way I'm not predicting him.

My worry is that there just isn't enough of a consensus over who is best in show in Django. I guess Waltz has had the most impressive showing overall, but that still poses the problem of way too many former winners. I could also see Hoffman getting thrown under the bus since it looks like Harvey is putting his weight behind SLP and Django instead. Ugh I really don't know.

[Moviefreak]

My worry is that there just isn't enough of a consensus over who is best in show in Django. I guess Waltz has had the most impressive showing overall, but that still poses the problem of way too many former winners. I could also see Hoffman getting thrown under the bus since it looks like Harvey is putting his weight behind SLP and Django instead. Ugh I really don't know.

I can't see Hoffman missing, no way. Just look at the SAGs, they obviously didn't like The Master at all, yet they still nominated him. The actors just really love him. Granted, I wouldn't be shocked to see anyone miss here other than TLJ, but a Hoffman snub is really unlikely.

[Submerge]

This morning I had a hunch that McConaughey could still be nominated. If there's a place that's prone to recognizing banner years of long careers that haven't been acknowledged yet with a nod, that's AMPAS. SAG's nomination comittee is huge, and MMc doesn't have more prestige than the guys who got the nom. Of course he has the same problem with AMPAS, but he's probably worked many more times with AMPAS members than with fourth-row actors voting at SAG. I mean, stunt with a line in a thousand movies may be more inclined to vote for Bardem in Skyfall, but Hopkins may be more inclined to recognizing that great guy who worked with him very well once and hasn't yet been welcome to the club. I don't know, I feel like the upper crust of the industry may be kinder to him (they've been working with him for decades now, and he's brought the dollars without much pretension) than the lower crust. And they like banner years like McConaughey's.

I do agree with much of this. I don't think he's out of the race at all.

[babz]

Dwight Henry won Utah film critics, not that it means anything, but atleast he' still in the discussion.

[ConsiderNicoleKidman]

I have a feeling Tommy Lee Jones will win this category.

[David Giancarlo]

I have a feeling Tommy Lee Jones will win this category.

Thank you for enlightening us.

[RobYo]

(1) Tommy Lee Jones
(2) Philip Seymour Hoffman
(3) Alan Arkin
(4) Eddie Redmayne
(5) Tom Wilkinson

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

Are you predicting the BAFTAs here? If so, that makes sense. But if not, WHAT IN THE FUCK.

[DirkDiggler]

Are you predicting the BAFTAs here? If so, that makes sense. But if not, WHAT IN THE FUCK.

:dwighthenry:

[ConsiderNicoleKidman]

My predictions:

1. Tommy Lee Jones
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman
3. Alan Arkin
4. Javier Bardem
5. Ewan McGregor

I just don't trust the two Django Unchained supporting actors.

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

So, we're going to pretend the Weinsteins don't exist. HUH.

[RobYo]

My predictions:

1. Tommy Lee Jones
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman
3. Alan Arkin
4. Javier Bardem
5. Ewan McGregor

I just don't trust the two Django Unchained supporting actors.

this is where I'm at as well. I just don't see how these actors from Django will squeeze in and who they will knock out. Maybe they will cancel eachother out ?

that's why I'm predicting someone random after Arkin, Jones and Hoffman = Tom Wilkinson and Eddie Redmayne ...I almost went with Ewan though.

[Addison de Witt]

1. Tommy Lee Jones

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman
3. Robert de Niro
4. Alan Arkin

5. Christoph Waltz
6. Matthew McConaughey
7. Javier Bardem
8. Leonardo di Caprio
9. Ewan McGregor


10. Eddie Redmayne

I feel like any of the 5-9 can get the nod but for now Waltz is what makes more sense. I think Django will do well with AMPAS and I don't think is likely that it has no acting nominations. So Waltz can get it a la Mark Whalberg.

[moviewatcher]

People... I don't like this... this category is looking too... predictable.

Almost everyone seems to be going for the same 5 (and this includes me).
Arkin
DiCaprio
De Niro
Hoffman
Jones

This is the only category where this is happening. Supp. Actress was just struck by the Kidman clusterfuck. Actor is questioning Phoenix's nomination. And Actress... well... that's a clusterfuck in and of itself.

Is Supp. Actor really going to be that predictable? I'm just throwing this out there.

[erikdean]

Too predictable? I think you're the only person thinking that anywhere.

This category is anything but. Only Hoffman and Jones are true locks and everyone else is up in the air.

[moviewatcher]

Too predictable? I think you're the only person thinking that anywhere.

This category is anything but. Only Hoffman and Jones are true locks and everyone else is up in the air.

I think it's the category with the least strong contenders. Dwight Henry is dead in the water (beasts will be lucky if it gets Wallis, which I have in 5th place). Bardem is just... not getting in. He's playing a Bond villain, after all. The only people I could see making it in is: Waltz over DiCaprio; then Redmayne and McConaughey. And I'm not that confident about Redmayne. That guy has NO traction whatsoever. And MM didn't even get a GLOBE nomination!

I think Hoffman & Jones are locks, but I would also (unfortunately) add Arkin to the list. De Niro and DiCaprio are the two you can play with, IMHO. Waltz, Redmayne, McConaughey...

That's why I feel that this category is the most "predictable" of the 4 acting categories. Of course, at the end of the day, anything could happen.

[Markku Palo]

Yup, Arkin is just one of those things that's going to happen, whether we like it or not.

[with_one_voice]

I think it's the category with the least strong contenders. Dwight Henry is dead in the water (beasts will be lucky if it gets Wallis, which I have in 5th place). Bardem is just... not getting in. He's playing a Bond villain, after all. The only people I could see making it in is: Waltz over DiCaprio; then Redmayne and McConaughey. And I'm not that confident about Redmayne. That guy has NO traction whatsoever. And MM didn't even get a GLOBE nomination!

I think Hoffman & Jones are locks, but I would also (unfortunately) add Arkin to the list. De Niro and DiCaprio are the two you can play with, IMHO. Waltz, Redmayne, McConaughey...

That's why I feel that this category is the most "predictable" of the 4 acting categories. Of course, at the end of the day, anything could happen.

Henry is dead in the water, but Redmayne is a contender?

You tried it sis.