Alan Arkin Argo
Javier Bardem Skyfall
Robert De Niro Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio Django Unchained
Dwight Henry Beasts of the Southern Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master
Tommy Lee Jones Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey Magic Mike
Ewan McGregor The Impossible
Eddie Redmayne Les Misιrables
Christoph Waltz Django Unchained
Other
I seriously love how you all write him off the minute he didn't get an indie spit nomination, but then he's definitely the first timer getting in once he won the L.A. Film Critics award despite being nominated for no other critic awards this season.Originally Posted by Eduardo Zuckerberg
IMO, Henry makes more sense than McConaughey. Both have a major critics win and McConaughey has BFCA, but that isn't all that major. McConaughey shockingly missed SAG and GG; Henry wasn't expected for either, so both being absent at those two was a much bigger blow to McConaughey than it was to Henry. McConaughey's performance isn't the type that can withstand being snubbed by the major precursors. Whereas Henry much better fits the profile of unexpected contender, with a co-star who will also be nominated and is in a probable Best Picture nominee, to sneak in on Oscar nomination morning. McConaughey would be his film's only Oscar nomination, and he's never been nominated before - not a good recipe for success (maybe unprecedented, actually). Beasts will probably get in for Picture, Actress, and Screenplay, so passion for the film can sweep Henry in; that seems much likelier than Academy voters, of all people, reviving McConaughey in Magic Mike after SAG (populist) and GG (starfuckers) ignored it.
LAFCA is more important than ISA. How many times do we have to go over this, Dirk?
Plus, compared to McConaughey, Henry was ineligible for SAG and was always a longshot for a Globe nod. Both of those should have been easy gets for McConaughey, but he didn't get them.
If I have to predict a first-timer in this category, I am fairly confident in picking the LAFCA winner who will likely get swept along by his leading actress and well as his film's Best Picture nomination.
He literally only has LAFCA. He just doesn't have ISA.... he has nothing else. No other nominations from any critic groups. They only gave him it probably because they knew the world forgot about him, so they tried to give him a bit of a boost.
He was nominated for Chicago and a couple of others. I'm not saying that that changes anything, but at least get your facts straight.
Okkkkk. Didn't remember that one. Sorry.
This year is so predictable when it comes to the male categories. It's no wonder, a lot of people, only care about the female categories this year, at least that's what it seems.
How exactly is this category predictable? Or even Best Actor, where I can realistically see any one of the 2-6 contenders missing.
Not the nominations per se, but the winners seem more obvious within the male categories, IMO. With the female nominations, there's more enthralling battles.
The Supporting Actress winner is pretty obvious. Supporting Actor is way more competitive.
So you're new!
Huh? Actor and Supporting Actress are clearly going to Day-Lewis and Hathaway, respectively.
Actress and Supporting Actor are the races (Lawrence vs Chastain, Jones vs DiCaprio).
They could always give Ms. Field her third consecutive Academy Award, for Lincoln sweep!
LOL, no...I mean, this is a joke, right? EVERYONE that has seen Les Mis says that Hathaway has the Oscar in the bag.
I don't think Henry is happening unless Beasts has a ton of hidden support. I'm going to be relying on Oscar bloggers to try to ferret out those trends, and if people like Poland and O'Neill and Feinberg sense an enormous hidden groundswell for Beasts, Henry could happen. But that's the only scenario.
As it is, I think this category is CHAOS, but I'm dreading the lineup being boring and terrible. There's so many good options, and yet Alan Arkin is a contender for making a few wisecracks. FUCK THIS ENTIRELY TOO BORING EARTH. I'm seeing a lot of different possibilities, but many of them are mutually exclusive. TLJ and PSH are safe, though, so there's three spots up for grabs. PSH is considered by many people here kind of hammy and OTT all the time, but to actors, he's a GOD, and part of that is that despite being an ugly, creepy looking sonnuvabitch, he's clawed his way to tremendous professional and commercial success through sheer force of will. Tommy Lee Jones is one of the greatest, and most underappreciated actors. If Alan Arkin gets nominated, it will not have anything remotely to do with his performance, and everything to do with his story, his long, tenacious, multifaceted career, and his personality. Leonardo DiCaprio is a conundrum, being at once a hugely respected star and Serious Actor, and at the same time, not really being taken seriously. He is playing right into the wheelhouse of what typically gets nominated in supporting actor, in Django Unchained playing a charming, eloquent, but evil man. And yet people are giving accolades to his co-star Christoph Waltz, or to Samuel L. Jackson. I can't imagine how frustrating that must be for him. And yet the NBR win means something, doesn't it? Waltz himself is an interesting case. Since winning the Oscar, he's done a few interesting things, most notably Carnage, although Hollywood hasn't yet found a great role for him. But Tarantino wrote this role probably with Waltz in mind, and from all accounts he nails it. People have been saying the role as written wasn't that baity, and perhaps that's true. But maybe Tarantino knew it was merely a platform for Waltz to take off?
Matthew McConaughey has had a brilliant career resurrection, and even more to his credit, it's entirely his own doing. He saw where his life had been going, where he could easily coast off his charm and stay wealthy all his life, but to his credit, he wanted more. The unfortunate thing for him this year is that often actors having great years in film doesn't mean jack shit to Oscar voters.
Robert DeNiro...well, I don't know, there's a lot of doubt about his possible nomination even from people who've seen the film, but this is someone recognized as one of the greatest actors of all time, but he's been squandering his talents on dreck for too long. People wanted the old Bobby DeNiro back. And many people, critics and audience members, believe his performance in Silver Linings Playbook is that return.
Fuck it, this is just a long, random riff on the category. In conclusion.
TLJ
PSH
Alan Arkin
Christoph Waltz
Robert DeNiro
An Arkin/De Niro/PSH/TLJ/Waltz lineup wouldn't surprise me. or throw in DiCaprio instead of Waltz. I really doubt Samuel L. Jackson (if anyone's even predicting him anymore) at this point. Seems like Waltz and DiCaprio are the ones being singled out, so it's bound to be one of them, if any. And while Henry could enter the race, I don't know who he would bump at this point. It's impossible to know just how many "Beasts" supporters there are...and then in Naomi/Impossible really is becoming the awards juggernaut some recent articles suggest, I could see Ewan as that random nominee.
McConaughey's done though. I just can't see him making it in unless everyone watched "Magic Mike" and decided suddenly to vote for him over this period.
Bardem continues to be completely discredited in this race despite having likely BFCA + SAG + BAFTA nods as well as citations from most of the critics groups, while DiCaprio is a lock with an NBR win and a Globe nod. I must be missing something.
I love Bardem so if he gets that BAFTA nod, I will predict him. I know BAFTA comes like a day before, but it signals support which is important. But yikes, who would Bardem replace? I haven't been around lately too much, so I'm not even sure what's going on with "Django" other than DiCaprio/Waltz seem to be alternating with different awards groups, and of the five, those two seem most vulnerable. The other four (Arkin, De Niro, PSH, TLJ) seem pretty safe to me at this point. If anything, I would want to remove Hoffman since "Master" may be losing support, but this is PSH lol and actors love him, so even if Phoenix and Adams miss, as they did at SAG, I'm pretty sure Hoffman would still be in the race.
Why do I feel like this is all you ever say? You spew nonsense and then say "Sorry!!! Forgot about that!!!". Just do your fucking research first. God damn.
Last edited by with_one_voice; 12-19-2012 at 11:44 AM.
Bardem would have been pushed out by one of the Django guys at SAG if they had seen the movie, I'm pretty sure. That said, even if I'm right about that he's been nominated twice before without a SAG nomination, so that might not even matter in the end.
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