Alan Arkin Argo
Javier Bardem Skyfall
Robert De Niro Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio Django Unchained
Dwight Henry Beasts of the Southern Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master
Tommy Lee Jones Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey Magic Mike
Ewan McGregor The Impossible
Eddie Redmayne Les Misιrables
Christoph Waltz Django Unchained
LAFCA is more important than ISA. How many times do we have to go over this, Dirk?
Plus, compared to McConaughey, Henry was ineligible for SAG and was always a longshot for a Globe nod. Both of those should have been easy gets for McConaughey, but he didn't get them.
If I have to predict a first-timer in this category, I am fairly confident in picking the LAFCA winner who will likely get swept along by his leading actress and well as his film's Best Picture nomination.
This year is so predictable when it comes to the male categories. It's no wonder, a lot of people, only care about the female categories this year, at least that's what it seems.
How exactly is this category predictable? Or even Best Actor, where I can realistically see any one of the 2-6 contenders missing.
Not the nominations per se, but the winners seem more obvious within the male categories, IMO. With the female nominations, there's more enthralling battles.
The Supporting Actress winner is pretty obvious. Supporting Actor is way more competitive.
I don't think Henry is happening unless Beasts has a ton of hidden support. I'm going to be relying on Oscar bloggers to try to ferret out those trends, and if people like Poland and O'Neill and Feinberg sense an enormous hidden groundswell for Beasts, Henry could happen. But that's the only scenario.
As it is, I think this category is CHAOS, but I'm dreading the lineup being boring and terrible. There's so many good options, and yet Alan Arkin is a contender for making a few wisecracks. FUCK THIS ENTIRELY TOO BORING EARTH. I'm seeing a lot of different possibilities, but many of them are mutually exclusive. TLJ and PSH are safe, though, so there's three spots up for grabs. PSH is considered by many people here kind of hammy and OTT all the time, but to actors, he's a GOD, and part of that is that despite being an ugly, creepy looking sonnuvabitch, he's clawed his way to tremendous professional and commercial success through sheer force of will. Tommy Lee Jones is one of the greatest, and most underappreciated actors. If Alan Arkin gets nominated, it will not have anything remotely to do with his performance, and everything to do with his story, his long, tenacious, multifaceted career, and his personality. Leonardo DiCaprio is a conundrum, being at once a hugely respected star and Serious Actor, and at the same time, not really being taken seriously. He is playing right into the wheelhouse of what typically gets nominated in supporting actor, in Django Unchained playing a charming, eloquent, but evil man. And yet people are giving accolades to his co-star Christoph Waltz, or to Samuel L. Jackson. I can't imagine how frustrating that must be for him. And yet the NBR win means something, doesn't it? Waltz himself is an interesting case. Since winning the Oscar, he's done a few interesting things, most notably Carnage, although Hollywood hasn't yet found a great role for him. But Tarantino wrote this role probably with Waltz in mind, and from all accounts he nails it. People have been saying the role as written wasn't that baity, and perhaps that's true. But maybe Tarantino knew it was merely a platform for Waltz to take off?
Matthew McConaughey has had a brilliant career resurrection, and even more to his credit, it's entirely his own doing. He saw where his life had been going, where he could easily coast off his charm and stay wealthy all his life, but to his credit, he wanted more. The unfortunate thing for him this year is that often actors having great years in film doesn't mean jack shit to Oscar voters.
Robert DeNiro...well, I don't know, there's a lot of doubt about his possible nomination even from people who've seen the film, but this is someone recognized as one of the greatest actors of all time, but he's been squandering his talents on dreck for too long. People wanted the old Bobby DeNiro back. And many people, critics and audience members, believe his performance in Silver Linings Playbook is that return.
Fuck it, this is just a long, random riff on the category. In conclusion.
An Arkin/De Niro/PSH/TLJ/Waltz lineup wouldn't surprise me. or throw in DiCaprio instead of Waltz. I really doubt Samuel L. Jackson (if anyone's even predicting him anymore) at this point. Seems like Waltz and DiCaprio are the ones being singled out, so it's bound to be one of them, if any. And while Henry could enter the race, I don't know who he would bump at this point. It's impossible to know just how many "Beasts" supporters there are...and then in Naomi/Impossible really is becoming the awards juggernaut some recent articles suggest, I could see Ewan as that random nominee.
McConaughey's done though. I just can't see him making it in unless everyone watched "Magic Mike" and decided suddenly to vote for him over this period.
Bardem continues to be completely discredited in this race despite having likely BFCA + SAG + BAFTA nods as well as citations from most of the critics groups, while DiCaprio is a lock with an NBR win and a Globe nod. I must be missing something.
Bardem would have been pushed out by one of the Django guys at SAG if they had seen the movie, I'm pretty sure. That said, even if I'm right about that he's been nominated twice before without a SAG nomination, so that might not even matter in the end.