Look - I was on your side till recently. I am sure there is a sizable number of people who won't vote for him to win a 3rd. But, I just think their votes will be spread out as there is no clear alternative. I don't see anyone else capable of getting 21% of the vote....I just don't.Originally Posted by Blasty
You're not actually describing who DDL's competition for the win is/could be. Sure, his prior wins are a strike against him, but you're not mentioning the arguments against all of his other contenders. You're just focusing on the one con against DDL, while ignoring all of the gigantic pros in his favor, and ignoring all of the other cons against everyone else and not mentioning how few pros they all have. As filmy said, he will steamroll because the competition just isn't there. Each race has to be assessed relative to the competition, and you're not doing that, you're just assessing DDL's chances in absolute terms, in a vacuum, not in the context of the Best Actor race 2012.
National Board Of Review fucked up though. They may dislike DDL for whatever reason, but they went and gave it to the least likely person to be able to actually upset him at the Oscars in Cooper. So it was basically a loss that did no damage to DDL's chances. Had NBR given to literally almost anyone but Cooper (Phoenix, Denzel, Jackman etc), then we'd be talking about a race, instead of DDL still being way out in front.
But Blasty, who wins instead? This is an integral part in saying DDL won't win
No... even if Phoenix wins LAFCA tomorrow, for example, it's not a race. Day-Lewis still wins BFCA, GG, SAG, etc. It's the same as Hathaway: you are not stopping them.
ETA: Basically I'm saying what w_o_v said. When NBR announced, it already had reached the point where DDL was unstoppable. Everything had been put in place, in alignment, for DDL's Oscar win. Even though NBR picked Cooper, it made no difference. If it had been Jackman, it still would have made no difference.
Last edited by filmy; 12-08-2012 at 11:37 PM.
I think it's too premature to discount his competition at this point. I think things can change in this race. It's not over. And I DO recognize what's in Day Lewis' favor. I just think the history is stronger than what's in his favor. Something has always prevented this kind of actor from winning a 3rd Oscar before - I have trouble believing he will waltz to victory and break the mold. I just don't think it's that easy to win a 3rd Oscar. I would not be shocked to see any of his competitors win over him in the end, though you guys can't imagine that now, which is understandable. But alot of things change as the race progresses. And he is such an early favorite, and that makes him ripe for the upset.
It's funny how people all seemed to understand the magnitude and difficulty of winning a 3rd oscar LAST year when they DIDN'T want Meryl Streep to win one for The Iron Lady. Lots of stats were thrown against her for why she couldn't win. And it's like this year, everyone just thinks the '3rd Oscar' quandary is an easy hurdle for Day Lewis to jump over simply because he's brilliant.
That you can't see the difference here is the problem. Viola Davis won BFCA & SAG. She was in a hugely popular film and had strong sentiment by her side as well. Meryl Streep had lost countless times; there was no imperative for awarding her. She lost to Sandra Bullock, of all people, when Streep fans were adamant she could prevail. Daniel Day-Lewis has not lost all those times, has not been nominated all those times--all these things that you think are detrimental to his chances (his reclusiveness, etc.) are all probably benefits.
Plus...THERE IS NO COMPETITION.
Who do you think is the alternative if not DDL?
I don't think we know yet who is Day Lewis' rival yet. But it's EARLY. Let's see what happens when we get to all the televised awards and what the buzz is in the next few months. Declaring the race over now is silly. I mean, I don't think even Jean Dujardin was a factor for the win yet at this time!?! Let's just see what happens. I think Hollywood will pick a different pony to back in the end just because history tells me they usually do in this kind of race. I'll be happy to be wrong as I think Day Lewis deserves like 4 Oscars LMAO. I love him, I just don't believe it will happen but we'll see.
Okay, well there's really no sense in arguing the point anymore, because it's clear that you think that essentially NOTHING can get someone a 3rd Best Actor win, at least not after having won a 2nd so recently. All you're doing is saying that the statistics are not in DDL's favor, while not actually assessing his role in the context of this race, which is the important part. You're essentially just saying that voters are going to be so biased against giving someone a 3rd Best Actor Oscar that they will find SOME alternative -- but you're not actually analyzing who the potential alternatives are. They all have major weaknesses, which trump DDL's negative; that's what you're not realizing. If there were a lead actor in the race who were in a top 2 BP film that could win Best Director, a la Brody in The Pianist, people would be more hesitant about a DDL win. But there's not. Look at the actual race; there are no alternatives.
ETA: While people didn't peg Dujardin as the winner this early, he was in the BP frontrunner. Anyone who dismissed his chances was being foolish. The key, though, is that he was in the strongest film: none of DDL's competition has that. None of DDL's competitor's films will vie for Best Picture. The closest is SLP/Cooper, and I think we all know he's not winning.
People probably reacted that way to Meryl because her film was a dud while DDL's movie is mostly well-liked and WAY more critically praised. If Meryl had starred in a movie that was 90% on RT and 86 on Metacritic, it wouldn't even be a question.
The problem with this is that there is NO other contender. Heck, we're noy even really sure who is getting nominated in the 2-5 positions! Everyone except DDL is actually vulnerable to getting snubbed altogether. That, on top of the fact that it's a highly praised performance from DDL in a Best Picture frontrunner about Lincoln, just points to one direction.
Adrien Brody won for a beloved film that almost won Best Picture. If Zero Dark Thirty had a lead actor, I might be inclined to agree that this is a race. But, there is simply no such contender this year.
I think you're thinking of the Daniel Day-Lewis of 1998 or whatever who moved to Italy to become a cobbler. This is a very different DDL, if you see him in interviews today, he has softened very much and does play the game. He is an acting institution. But, my point is that DDL is the type of actor, as is Sean Penn (no idea what you're laughing at that), who are revered in the industry and can win 3rd Oscars. Yes, it's rare. Yes, it's not likely to happen often. But, it will happen this year.
And who cares about the NBR? They haven't awarded DDL since 1986 and they went with Bradley Cooper of all people.
Oh and on a side note, do you really think that if DDL worked as much as Nicholson or Meryl he wouldn't have double digit acting nominations? DDL is up there with this people.
I guess that's where I disagree. I think history, which is to me more than just statistics, in this case, plays a bigger role than is getting credit for. There are plenty of dumb stats and records that get broken all the time - but the '3rd Oscar' thing is really greater than any kind of stat or record that can be broken in my opinion. It gets to the heart of who the Academy is - they may have changed over the years but not so much that they just give Oscars based on merit now.
I agree that 'in the context of this race' Day Lewis seems like a big favorite. I am not disputing that he is in the lead. I just don't think he will cross the finish line in the lead in a couple of months from now. I think buzz will coalescence around one of his competitors who have never won as Oscar before, whether its Jackman or Phoenix or Cooper or Hawkes, I don't know but I can see a great campaign and some tv awards easily transforming this race down the road.
Yes, he would have alot of nominations but that's neither here nor there. To me, this is the kind of statement where I often think AD just is very disconnected from Hollywood or what your average moviegoer thinks. Even if Day-Lewis worked more, and had more nominations, there is no way he is on the fame or Iconic legendary level in the pop culture of a Nicholson or a Streep. Everyone knows who they are - they are beyond famous and adored with the world. Day Lewis is as talented as them, maybe more so, but you're not seriously suggesting his career as a star is anyway on their level, are you? He's not even as famous or well known in America as Anthony Hopkins. Dedicated and well educated moviegoers know who he is but he's not a superstar among the public. If he's supposed to be, say this generations Lawrence Olivier or something, he has not penetrated the public consciousnesses in the same way at all. And I think you need that extra fame and beloved status to win a 3rd Oscar as that's what history tells me. Now, everyone here simply says that history doesn't matter, this race is different, there's no competition, but we'll see...
It doesn't matter how they campaign - it won't magically give them an advantage to overtake DDL. Phoenix is probably the only one who has the critical praise to seriously challenge but The Master does not seem to be very popular thus far and he's weird/unlikable to many people. There's really no way Cooper or Jackman can win, they're just no strong enough contenders and not even certain nominees.
Daniel Day-Lewis has no competition. There's a lot of points being made in this thread, but that is the most important.
The Adrien Brody example doesn't work for two reasons: Gangs of New York suffered a massive backlash thanks to the fake Robert Wise letter, ultimately going home empty-handed, and The Pianist surged at the last minute, winning Director (for Roman fucking Polanski, of all people) and Screenplay in addition to Brody. It was obviously very close to winning Best Picture.
Daniel Day-Lewis is in one of the top two Best Picture contenders. There's nothing standing in his way. If Meryl can win for a piece of garbage like The Iron Lady, Nicholson for something as slight as As Good as it Gets, Bergman for a gloried cameo in Murder on the Orient Express, and Katherine Hepburn for On Golden Pond ("the loons!"), I don't see why Daniel Day-Lewis can't win a 3rd Oscar for playing Abraham Lincoln in a film that many not only consider to be Steven Spielberg's comeback but also the Best Picture frontrunner. I mean, it has a 90 on RT, an 86 on MC, and has already made $90 million.
The only way Daniel Day-Lewis doesn't win is if the world actually does end on December 21st.
Meryl Streep had no competition in Lead actress for Doubt until Kate Winslet got bumped to lead for The Reader at the last minute. Meryl Streep had no competition for Julie and Julia until Sandra Bullock all of a sudden started winning the televised awards. And yes, those can all be explained away by various nuances of those year's races, just as you're all explaining away what I and everyone already knows about the 2002 race and other factors about why Brody won. But the fact still remains that Daniel Day Lewis is not as beloved as Nicholson, Streep, Bergman, and yes I didn't mention her since I think of her as a 4-time winner, but Kate Hepburn as well. He is just not equivalent to them. And as the race develops, storylines DO unfold that are unexpected and surprises do happen. I think Hollywood will get sick of Day-Lewis in the end and find a more lovable non-winner to back.
There is no overdue Kate Winslet this year though, and even if she had not been bumped to lead for The Reader, most were predicting she would win that year regardless.
And you can't ignore the fact that Meryl's recent nominations have been in movies that were not very strong, which allowed them to be overshadowed easily. At this point, all of DDL's competitors except for Jackman have already had their films open.. and Lincoln at the moment is exceeding box office expectations more than any of them.
Ok, who?
I mean yes winning three Oscars is uncommon, but someone will win this year. Who will win if DDl doesn't? Denzel would also be winning a third, Les Mis doesn't have the reviews...
I guess Phoenix could but he's not even cleaning up the critics awards. Surprises happen but its December and there isn't anybody else
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