But Blasty, who wins instead? This is an integral part in saying DDL won't win
ETA: Basically I'm saying what w_o_v said. When NBR announced, it already had reached the point where DDL was unstoppable. Everything had been put in place, in alignment, for DDL's Oscar win. Even though NBR picked Cooper, it made no difference. If it had been Jackman, it still would have made no difference.
Last edited by filmy; 12-08-2012 at 11:37 PM.
I think it's too premature to discount his competition at this point. I think things can change in this race. It's not over. And I DO recognize what's in Day Lewis' favor. I just think the history is stronger than what's in his favor. Something has always prevented this kind of actor from winning a 3rd Oscar before - I have trouble believing he will waltz to victory and break the mold. I just don't think it's that easy to win a 3rd Oscar. I would not be shocked to see any of his competitors win over him in the end, though you guys can't imagine that now, which is understandable. But alot of things change as the race progresses. And he is such an early favorite, and that makes him ripe for the upset.
It's funny how people all seemed to understand the magnitude and difficulty of winning a 3rd oscar LAST year when they DIDN'T want Meryl Streep to win one for The Iron Lady. Lots of stats were thrown against her for why she couldn't win. And it's like this year, everyone just thinks the '3rd Oscar' quandary is an easy hurdle for Day Lewis to jump over simply because he's brilliant.
Plus...THERE IS NO COMPETITION.
I don't think we know yet who is Day Lewis' rival yet. But it's EARLY. Let's see what happens when we get to all the televised awards and what the buzz is in the next few months. Declaring the race over now is silly. I mean, I don't think even Jean Dujardin was a factor for the win yet at this time!?! Let's just see what happens. I think Hollywood will pick a different pony to back in the end just because history tells me they usually do in this kind of race. I'll be happy to be wrong as I think Day Lewis deserves like 4 Oscars LMAO. I love him, I just don't believe it will happen but we'll see.
Okay, well there's really no sense in arguing the point anymore, because it's clear that you think that essentially NOTHING can get someone a 3rd Best Actor win, at least not after having won a 2nd so recently. All you're doing is saying that the statistics are not in DDL's favor, while not actually assessing his role in the context of this race, which is the important part. You're essentially just saying that voters are going to be so biased against giving someone a 3rd Best Actor Oscar that they will find SOME alternative -- but you're not actually analyzing who the potential alternatives are. They all have major weaknesses, which trump DDL's negative; that's what you're not realizing. If there were a lead actor in the race who were in a top 2 BP film that could win Best Director, a la Brody in The Pianist, people would be more hesitant about a DDL win. But there's not. Look at the actual race; there are no alternatives.
ETA: While people didn't peg Dujardin as the winner this early, he was in the BP frontrunner. Anyone who dismissed his chances was being foolish. The key, though, is that he was in the strongest film: none of DDL's competition has that. None of DDL's competitor's films will vie for Best Picture. The closest is SLP/Cooper, and I think we all know he's not winning.
The problem with this is that there is NO other contender. Heck, we're noy even really sure who is getting nominated in the 2-5 positions! Everyone except DDL is actually vulnerable to getting snubbed altogether. That, on top of the fact that it's a highly praised performance from DDL in a Best Picture frontrunner about Lincoln, just points to one direction.
And who cares about the NBR? They haven't awarded DDL since 1986 and they went with Bradley Cooper of all people.
Oh and on a side note, do you really think that if DDL worked as much as Nicholson or Meryl he wouldn't have double digit acting nominations? DDL is up there with this people.
I agree that 'in the context of this race' Day Lewis seems like a big favorite. I am not disputing that he is in the lead. I just don't think he will cross the finish line in the lead in a couple of months from now. I think buzz will coalescence around one of his competitors who have never won as Oscar before, whether its Jackman or Phoenix or Cooper or Hawkes, I don't know but I can see a great campaign and some tv awards easily transforming this race down the road.
It doesn't matter how they campaign - it won't magically give them an advantage to overtake DDL. Phoenix is probably the only one who has the critical praise to seriously challenge but The Master does not seem to be very popular thus far and he's weird/unlikable to many people. There's really no way Cooper or Jackman can win, they're just no strong enough contenders and not even certain nominees.
Daniel Day-Lewis has no competition. There's a lot of points being made in this thread, but that is the most important.
The Adrien Brody example doesn't work for two reasons: Gangs of New York suffered a massive backlash thanks to the fake Robert Wise letter, ultimately going home empty-handed, and The Pianist surged at the last minute, winning Director (for Roman fucking Polanski, of all people) and Screenplay in addition to Brody. It was obviously very close to winning Best Picture.
Daniel Day-Lewis is in one of the top two Best Picture contenders. There's nothing standing in his way. If Meryl can win for a piece of garbage like The Iron Lady, Nicholson for something as slight as As Good as it Gets, Bergman for a gloried cameo in Murder on the Orient Express, and Katherine Hepburn for On Golden Pond ("the loons!"), I don't see why Daniel Day-Lewis can't win a 3rd Oscar for playing Abraham Lincoln in a film that many not only consider to be Steven Spielberg's comeback but also the Best Picture frontrunner. I mean, it has a 90 on RT, an 86 on MC, and has already made $90 million.
The only way Daniel Day-Lewis doesn't win is if the world actually does end on December 21st.
Meryl Streep had no competition in Lead actress for Doubt until Kate Winslet got bumped to lead for The Reader at the last minute. Meryl Streep had no competition for Julie and Julia until Sandra Bullock all of a sudden started winning the televised awards. And yes, those can all be explained away by various nuances of those year's races, just as you're all explaining away what I and everyone already knows about the 2002 race and other factors about why Brody won. But the fact still remains that Daniel Day Lewis is not as beloved as Nicholson, Streep, Bergman, and yes I didn't mention her since I think of her as a 4-time winner, but Kate Hepburn as well. He is just not equivalent to them. And as the race develops, storylines DO unfold that are unexpected and surprises do happen. I think Hollywood will get sick of Day-Lewis in the end and find a more lovable non-winner to back.
There is no overdue Kate Winslet this year though, and even if she had not been bumped to lead for The Reader, most were predicting she would win that year regardless.
And you can't ignore the fact that Meryl's recent nominations have been in movies that were not very strong, which allowed them to be overshadowed easily. At this point, all of DDL's competitors except for Jackman have already had their films open.. and Lincoln at the moment is exceeding box office expectations more than any of them.
I mean yes winning three Oscars is uncommon, but someone will win this year. Who will win if DDl doesn't? Denzel would also be winning a third, Les Mis doesn't have the reviews...
I guess Phoenix could but he's not even cleaning up the critics awards. Surprises happen but its December and there isn't anybody else