Best Actor: December

[with_one_voice]

Also, Weinstein has switched Waltz to Supporting ()

[tututaya]

How do these fourth and fifth place candidates emerge? Do they magically appear after never getting any precursor attention?

what precursor did Hill or Nolte get last year. The first time their names were called was on BFCA morning. I don't remember either winning anything before then. Until the BFCA, SAG, & Globes are announced this is what I'm predicting.

[tututaya]

but i'm going to log off and do some reserach! :O

[DirkDiggler]

Also, Weinstein has switched Waltz to Supporting ()

Link?

[filmy]

what precursor did Hill or Nolte get last year. The first time their names were called was on BFCA morning. I don't remember either winning anything before then. Until the BFCA, SAG, & Globes are announced this is what I'm predicting.

You answered your own question: Hill and Nolte made those awards. How do Gyllenhaal or Gere pull that off? I understand that nothing is really settled until we see some more nominations, but you seem to be searching for something that's not there.

[with_one_voice]

Link?

A representative for the Weinstein Company has just confirmed that Christoph Waltz’s role in Django Unchained will be campaigned as a Supporting role for the rest of the awards season. Waltz, who plays Dr. King Schultz ,will now compete against co-stars Leonardo DiCaprio, who just won the National Board of Review’s award for Supporting Actor and Academy Award nominee, Samuel L. Jackson. Waltz was named one of the runner-ups in the recent New York Film Critics Circle. just earlier this week.

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2012/12...ango-unchained

[erikdean]

Link?

It's in the official FYC.

[DirkDiggler]

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2012/12...ango-unchained

wow.

[DirkDiggler]

It's in the official FYC.

I know. I can't find it.

I got to here, but it only takes me to screenings.

http://twcawards.com/

[erikdean]

I know. I can't find it.

I got to here, but it only takes me to screenings.

http://twcawards.com/

Go to the AD main page.

[DirkDiggler]

Go to the AD main page.

[tututaya]

You answered your own question: Hill and Nolte made those awards. How do Gyllenhaal or Gere pull that off? I understand that nothing is really settled until we see some more nominations, but you seem to be searching for something that's not there.

That's what we are all doing, LOL. Hill and Nolte weren't on anyone's list this time last year. I remember when I brought Hill's name up after seeing the movie, I encountered the same type of shock & awe here. I didn't see Warrior until after the fact though. But, until the televised noms are announced can't I still have the pleasure of dreaming, LOL

[Solarie]

They really did sis So I'm saying that as for now L. Jackson is out. It's between DiCaprio, and Waltz.

[with_one_voice]

Hill and Nolte weren't on anyone's list this time last year.

They were, actually; AD just missed the mark with them. The rest of the Oscar predicting world had these guys very much on their radar. Scroll down to Supporting Actor: http://moviecitynews.com/2011/11/gur...vember-1-2011/

Nolte faded a bit by late November, but he still ranked in the Top 10. Hill continued to rank at no. 5: http://moviecitynews.com/2011/11/gur...ember-29-2011/. AD was collectively underestimating them.

[guany]

Anyone who saw Warrior knew that Nolte could easily happen. It was just a matter of enough people seeing his film.

However, studios do matter. Nolte had LionsGate. Hill had Columbia. Bichir had Summit.

Gyllenhaal and Pena have Open Road. Here is that studio's entire history:

Distributor - filmography

1. Ten (2013/II) ... Distributor (2014) (USA) (theatrical)
2. Machete Kills (2013) ... Distributor (2013) (USA) (theatrical)
3. The Host (2013) ... Distributor (2013) (USA) (theatrical)
4. Side Effects (2013) ... Distributor (2013) (USA) (theatrical)
5. A Haunted House (2013) ... Distributor (2013) (USA) (theatrical)
6. The Key Man (2013) ... Distributor (2013) (USA) (theatrical)
7. Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (2012) ... Distributor (2012) (USA) (theatrical)
8. End of Watch (2012) ... Distributor (2012) (USA) (theatrical)
9. Hit and Run (2012) ... Distributor (2012) (USA) (theatrical)
10. Lockout (2012) ... Distributor (2012) (USA) (theatrical)
11. The Grey (2011) ... Distributor (2012) (USA) (theatrical)
12. Killer Elite (2011) ... Distributor (2011) (USA) (theatrical)
13. Silent House (2011) ... Distributor (2012) (USA) (theatrical)
14. Fair Trade (????) ... Distributor (2014) (USA) (theatrical)

http://www.imdb.com/company/co0342335/

Before someone says, "But OMG Summit was small too!" people need to realize that Summit had tons (tons!) of money to campaign thanks to Twilight. And their success with The Hurt Locker's campaign gave them the experience needed to push Bichir in last year.

Again, the reason why the Bichir comparison is so damn annoying is that, just like Jacki Weaver in 2010, the screeners for his film were the first out of the gate. You know what screeners went out first this year, in early October? The Intouchables and The Deep Blue Sea. If people are looking for a surprise acting nominee it's going to be Rachel Weisz.

The End of Watch screeners were only just sent out 2 days ago. With ballots for a number of organizations due this weekend, do you really think voters are going to have time to cram in End of Watch at the last minute. Open Road should have sent out the screeners at least a month ago. They fucked up, and I don't think Gyllenhaal or Pena are going to happen at this point.

[Mike Aiello]

I have faith in Pena, as he's worked with enough actors in the business and his film did do well critically. Gyllenhaal won't happen but I'm holding out hope for Pena. I mean, we say Supporting Actor is so stacked but the only lock is really Tommy Lee Jones...Robert De Niro and PSH have very probable but we just don't know how this category will pan out in the end. A week ago, Redmayne was the actor everyone bet on to be the newcomer, now the Django guys are all fighting for a spot. So, I'll keep faith in Pena for now...mostly just because I want to see it happen.

[jjj]

Summit had tons (tons!) of money to campaign thanks to Twilight.

So Stephanie Meyer has pushed progress for women forward. Interesting.

[guany]

You know, I've been thinking about the screeners and such. I'm not predicting it, but can you imagine if Harvey got Omar Sy a nomination at one of the majors next week?

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

You know, I've been thinking about the screeners and such. I'm not predicting it, but can you imagine if Harvey got Omar Sy a nomination at one of the majors next week?

We'll see, Sy did beat Dujardin at the French Oscars; but with so many foreign films being pushed down AMPAS throat perhaps he'll be lost in the shuffle?

[aurélie]

You know, I've been thinking about the screeners and such. I'm not predicting it, but can you imagine if Harvey got Omar Sy a nomination at one of the majors next week?

so I guess i'm the only one who put Sy in the best actor for a comedy at the golden globes.