Best Actor: December

[tnb]

This category is starting to look oddly weak. I don't see a lot of passion for Hawkes, Washington, or Cooper. Phoenix seems to want people to dislike him. Will DDL just bulldoze everyone on his 3rd way to the podium and make this another Best Actress 2006 - where the same 5 people showed up everywhere, but the same person won everything? Queen Elizabeth & President Lincoln are both Very Big Biopic Roles.

but in fact they didn't - all other four of Mirren co-nominees (who were the same throughout the season) didn't bother to attend SAGs to see her collecting that one as well
Yeah everything looks like DDL will make history this year. Gosh - I am going to hate it given the trend of talking about him as a thing from another world when it comes to acting will even increase. I am praying for a Miracle that out of sudden Phoenix is turning this into a race somehow

And I think a line-up of
Cooper - DDL - Hawkes - Phoenix - Washington
seems the most plausible right now?

[with_one_voice]

guany, I remember you in particular bringing up this argument in the recent past, so I was wondering what you (and others) are thinking about it:

More than any other acting category, Best Actor nominees have the strongest correlation with being in strong films. I believe there has only been one Best Actor nominee since 2000 to get a nomination for a 'rotten' film, and that was acting legend Sean Penn in I Am Sam. Even last year is effective at highlighting this trend, with DiCaprio (in a poorly received film) being snubbed after BFCA, SAG, and GG nominations for Oldman and Bichir (both in films with strong acclaim).

I remember this argument being brought up as perhaps reasoning for dropping Washington, as his film had the worst reviews of the Best Actor contenders' films at the time, with a 76 on Metacritic. (For comparison purposes: The Sessions has 80; Silver Linings Playbook has 81; and Lincoln and The Master have 86).

Now trounces in Les Mis, currently at a 55 on Metacritic and barely fresh on RT. Could Jackman actually be the one to get squeezed out from the six? While his film may keep its head above the 'rotten' line, and will probably float back into 'green' territory on Metacritic (I would think? LOL), it will be a pretty distant 6th in terms of the overall reception of these 6 films.

What do y'all think?

[guany]

Yes, I have lost a lot of confidence in Jackman in the last day or so. I think it's looking more and more likely that Hathaway will be Les Mis' sole acting nomination.

If they need a first-timer, they have Cooper who has the reviews, the NBR win, Harvey Weinstein, a top 5 BP nominee, and his co-star is a Best Actress frontrunner.

I think Jackman and Hawkes are fighting for the last spot.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Jackman and Phoenix are definitely the on the bubble. I think it's pretty easy to say that Hawkes would be one of the ones to get one of those spots, but the question is, who will the other be if both fail? Mr (un)Popular Gere? Zero buzz, no-campaign Hopkins? Trintingnant? Damon? WTF?

[guany]

I think Phoenix is all but locked at this point. I know a lot of people hate The Master (myself included), but aside from DDL I think Phoenix has the most passion of all the contenders.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

I know you dismissed it when I brought it up the other day, but I would keep an eye on Trintingnant if he wins LAFCA.

[Atonenent.]

I'm keeping in Jackman because The Sessions just kinda feels gone. Everyone will see Les Miz and everyone will talk about it, plus he's still likely to win GG. Cooper seems pretty safe, though.

[Mike Aiello]

I know you dismissed it when I brought it up the other day, but I would keep an eye on Trintingnant if he wins LAFCA.

Nah. The six guys will battle it out for the five spots. If there's some random surprise, I'd say something like Ben Affleck in "Argo"...who knows if "Argo" supporters will put his name down or not. I'm not predicting Affleck either, just pointing out that Trintingant's chances are super slim. We're not even sure his co-star is a sure thing lol and her category is way emptier.

[Atonenent.]

I can't see anyone going for Affleck in Actor. Bring it on, Jean-Louis!

[guany]

Trintingant getting an Oscar nomination would the greatest thing ever. Not just because of his work in Amour, but Red, Z, My Night at Maud's, The Conformist, etc. I love him and he is one of my favorite actors.

But I don't think he's going to happen.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

I know, and I know deep down I keep bringing him up because I want it to happen. But he deserves to still be in the conversation with everything that's happened dammit!

[OscarsFan 2.3]

Now, I'm guessing:

Cooper
Day-Lewis
Hawkes
Phoenix
Washington

alt. Trintignant, Jackman

[with_one_voice]

Jackman is hoping The Master self-destructs

[filmy]

Jackman seems to have a lot of goodwill toward him. I think people here are underestimating how many actors will still love Les Miz and rank it number one in categories even if it gets mediocre reviews.

[babz]

Jackman is in, even though reviews have been mediocre they want a semi-competitive actor race that is on par with the best picture race. Alot of people will like Les Miserables just because of the history.

[with_one_voice]

Jackman is in, even though reviews have been mediocre they want a semi-competitive actor race that is on par with the best picture race. Alot of people will like Les Miserables just because of the history.

Lol, this Best Actor race is not going to be competitive whatsoever, regardless of whether Jackman is nominated or not.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

If that Metacritic score stays where it is, Jackman is not getting in, period. That's a lower score than J. Edgar right there.

[guany]

The only way Daniel Day-Lewis doesn't win the Oscar is if the world ends on December 21st.

[tututaya]

Jackman and Phoenix are definitely the on the bubble. I think it's pretty easy to say that Hawkes would be one of the ones to get one of those spots, but the question is, who will the other be if both fail? Mr (un)Popular Gere? Zero buzz, no-campaign Hopkins? Trintingnant? Damon? WTF?

I know you guys hate the Bichir analogy, but I'm using it for another reason to reiterate something WOV said. He gave a strong performance in a well received movie, A Better Life.

The other two actors I would use to bolster that argument are both supporting, but still they gave strong performances in well received films, Jonah Hill and Nick Nolte. Nolte's name might have been knocked around a tad bit, but he was pretty much off of the radar last year, as was Hill.

The point I"m making is Phoenix, although brilliant in The Master, is on the bubble. That film is way out there. All of the perfs are great but very few people understand the narrative. That's not good for him.

Jackman is on the bubble b/c Les Miz is devisive. Those who love it, love it. Those who hate it, hate it. Very few people are like myself who find themselves in the "like it" middle.

DDL, Cooper, & Washington are locks for me. Honestly I think Gere has a better shot than Hawkes. He is campaigning his arse off.

And, I know people believe that Gyllenhaal isn't in the mix, but I don't think he's completely out as say Hopkins.
I've not met anyone who has seen EOW that didn't love both perfs in again, a very strong movie.

1. DDL
2. Cooper
3. Washington
4. Gere
5. Gyllenhaal/Hawkes/Waltz

Jackman
Phoenix

[filmy]

I know you guys hate the Bichir analogy, but I'm using it for another reason to reiterate something WOV said. He gave a strong performance in a well received movie, A Better Life.

The other two actors I would use to bolster that argument are both supporting, but still they gave strong performances in well received films, Jonah Hill and Nick Nolte. Nolte's name might have been knocked around a tad bit, but he was pretty much off of the radar last year, as was Hill.

The point I"m making is Phoenix, although brilliant in The Master, is on the bubble. That film is way out there. All of the perfs are great but very few people understand the narrative. That's not good for him.

Jackman is on the bubble b/c Les Miz is devisive. Those who love it, love it. Those who hate it, hate it. Very few people are like myself who find themselves in the "like it" middle.

DDL, Cooper, & Washington are locks for me. Honestly I think Gere has a better shot than Hawkes. He is campaigning his arse off.

And, I know people believe that Gyllenhaal isn't in the mix, but I don't think he's completely out as say Hopkins.
I've not met anyone who has seen EOW that didn't love both perfs in again, a very strong movie.

1. DDL
2. Cooper
3. Washington
4. Gere
5. Gyllenhaal/Hawkes/Waltz

Jackman
Phoenix

How do these fourth and fifth place candidates emerge? Do they magically appear after never getting any precursor attention?