Best Actor: December

[Maxim]

If Gere couldn't get nominated for a Best Picture winner after winning the Golden Globe, I don't know why people think he'll get nominated for a film nobody saw.

'A Better Life' comes to mind though that had an aggressive screeners campaign. My point was that Gere is in the conversation again and, well, Roger Ebert thinks he might get nominated.

And as for Chicago, it's possible that he was campaigned in the wrong category, among other things.

[guany]

A Better Life was about a likable illegal immigrant trying to make a better life for his son in LA. It's a social message movie, and AMPAS loves those. Arbitrage is about a douchey billionaire who kills a girl and runs. Comparing them doesn't really work.

As for his category placement for Chicago, he was in lead and recognized in that category by both the Globes and SAG. So it's not like there was any category confusion.

[clearwatergirl]

Eh, I still think Denzel can make it in rather easily. His part is just as baity as Hawkes, and much, much showier. I feel like this sudden doubting of him is more people trying to will it into happening. Like really, go back and look at those raves.

I agree it does seem that way and I think it's because people here generally hated the movie. He's locked for BFCA and Golden Globe nominations. My opinion is that unless he's snub by SAG he will not miss.

[Mike Aiello]

Richard Gere is not happening. It's down to the final six, as it has been for months now (Cooper, Day-Lewis, Hawkes, Jackman, Phoenix, Washington). Not even Oscar winner Anthony Hopkins can break in at this point. One reason Bichir and Oldman were able to happen was because DiCaprio's film was panned all around and Fassbender was in a film that wasn't AMPAS' cup of tea (and we knew this before the major precursors were announced...he was always a little iffy, despite some critical love). This is not a year where any performance in this group is in that category. Yeah, Joaquin Phoenix might not be everyone's cup of tea, but "The Master" would have to underperform (which is possible but unlikely) for him to lose a spot to Cooper, Hawkes, Jackman, and Washington...none of whom (except Cooper's win today I suppose) are really in a better position at this point in time. Whether he campaigns or not, Gere is an outside shot at best...none of the other guys have a serious enough detractor to lose their spot to someone like Gere...that's why everyone's having a hard time picking which person will miss come Oscar time of the six.

[Amanolive]

1. Day-Lewis
2. Washington
3. Jackman
4. Cooper
5. Phoenix

[Midnight]

Weirdly, I could see anybody in this category except for Daniel Day-Lewis missing. I never expected The Master to catch on with NBR, and thought it less likely at NYFCC than LAFCA or NSFC, but if it or Phoenix doesn't score big at LAFCA then I'll probably drop him, because the critical support probably just won't be there. If he stays in it though, I could conceivably see the other big contenders missing under various circumstances. Right now I'll just go with:

Day-Lewis
Jackman
Washington
Cooper
Phoenix

With Hawkes waiting in the wings.

[guany]

Okay, so I've been thinking (i.e. I've had a couple of Jamesons), and I now think that Denzel will in fact be nominated and that Hawkes will be the odd man out.

I hope someone has a defibrillator. Poor homespun probably just went into a state of shock!

My pro-Hawkes rationale has been that, out of essentially nowhere, SAG and Oscar nominated him for Winter's Bone... so the actors must love him! But the thing is that Winter's Bone was a BP, Actress, and Screenplay nominee... his main competition was a 20-something kid (Garfield)... and he actually got a lot of raves for Winter's Bone.

But the main thing that makes me reconsider Denzel is Cynthia Swartz, the woman in charge of his campaign. From The Wrap:

Cynthia Swartz
StrategyPR/Consulting
After working countless Oscar campaigns during six years at 42West (and before that 13 years at Miramax), Swartz left that company a year ago to found Strategy. Scott Rudin remains a client, anchoring a roster that this season includes "On the Road," "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Flight."

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column...uld-know-65781

Girl has worked for Harvey and Rudin... she obviously knows a thing or too. Yeah, she'll probably focus most of her attention on ZDT... but ZDT doesn't have a Best Actor contender.



Don't let the smile fool you.

Anyways, re: Cooper: the last NBR Best Actor winner who was in an Oscar Best Picture nominee to not get nominated was Victor Banerjee for A Passage to India. Well, the NBR loved A Passage to India; aside from Banerjee, they gave it wins for Picture, Director, and Actress. Plus, Cooper has Harvey, so....

EDIT. Also in Denzel's favor:

Murray Weissman
Weissman/Markovitz Communications
A 30-year vet of public relations, Weissman spent 15 Oscar campaigns (and 11 Best Picture nominations) working with Miramax. His company currently works on Paramount’s Oscar campaigns.

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column...uld-know-65781

[Maxim]

A Better Life was about a likable illegal immigrant trying to make a better life for his son in LA. It's a social message movie, and AMPAS loves those. Arbitrage is about a douchey billionaire who kills a girl and runs. Comparing them doesn't really work.

As for his category placement for Chicago, he was in lead and recognized in that category by both the Globes and SAG. So it's not like there was any category confusion.

I wasn't comparing the two movies. It was something you did (nice job using the title of the film in the description, too ). I just brought it up as an example of a rarely predicted actor getting a nomination. It was after Bichir got nominated that everyone started to rationalize it. There's always more factors in play than people know.

We certainly disagree about potential for category confusion in regards to Chicago. It is most definitely not obvious that Gere's was a leading performance no matter how it was campaigned.

[HollyG]

Gere couldn't even get a Spirit nom, he's not happening.

[park]

1. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
2. John Hawkes, The Sessions
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
4. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
5. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
alt. Denzel Washington, Flight

[Maxim]

It's down to the final six, as it has been for months now (Cooper, Day-Lewis, Hawkes, Jackman, Phoenix, Washington).

Months ago, most voters probably weren't thinking about who would be in their top five. Just because you were predicting it then doesn't make it so. You are talking perceived likelihood which is a different thing because it wasn't actually decided then. Sometimes that perceived likelihhod is right and sometimes not quite. Especially in regards to films voters haven't seen yet.

One reason Bichir and Oldman were able to happen was because DiCaprio's film was panned all around and Fassbender was in a film that wasn't AMPAS' cup of tea.

Well, Bichir and Oldman's chances went up with less competition but it's not why they got nominated. In any case, as you've said, it's just one factor.

I am not saying anyone will or will not be nominated, I'm just saying that AMPAS is a large enough group that there could be surprises.

[ladylurks]

Daniel Day-Lewis
Joaquin Phoenix
Denzel Washington
Bradley Cooper
Jean-Louis Trintignant

[Mike Aiello]

Months ago, most voters probably weren't thinking about who would be in their top five. Just because you were predicting it then doesn't make it so. You are talking perceived likelihood which is a different thing because it wasn't actually decided then. Sometimes that perceived likelihhod is right and sometimes not quite. Especially in regards to films voters haven't seen yet.

What? I'm not talking about AMPAS voters, I don't know them, so I can't tell what they were thinking months ago (or if they even thought about it months ago). All I'm saying is the same six guys have been tossed around for months now, and Richard Gere would need a miracle to happen at this point.

[with_one_voice]

I actually think the ones most vulnerable to miss are Hawkes, Jackman, and Phoenix. I know flirting with the idea of Jackman or Phoenix missing is, like, blasphemous, but this is such a tight race with six guys, and considering Cooper has Harvey + BP nominee + NBR win + co-star is a frontrunner, and Washington is a 2x Oscar winner w/ raves, I just think they're both in. The Master has sooo faded, no one saw The Sessions, and I think Jackman has the worst individual reviews of the six.

Idk :S

[fabiolocke]

1. Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)
2. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
3. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
4. John Hawkes (The Sessions)
5. Denzel Washington (Flight)
alt: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

[Eduardo Zuckerberg]

I'm actually considering the possibility of Jackman missing for the first time since the Les Mis reviews don't look too good. Cooper looks safer by the day.

1. DDL
2. Phoenix
3. Cooper
4. Jackman
5. Hawkes

6. Denzel

I think SAG will ultimately determine the nominees here. The SAG five will probably be the Oscar 5.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Could Jackman be weakened enough now and going forward that Cooper wins the Globe?

[with_one_voice]

Y'all are high if you think Washington is more vulnerable than Jackman

[homespun]

Y'all are high if you think Washington is more vulnerable than Jackman

It's been a bad day for Les Miz. Let them cling to their dreams a little while longer

[Stéphane]

Three time oscar winner: Daniel Day Lewis