Best Actress: December, 2

[filmy]

I agree that SAG will be incredible essential as they both go head to head there, but I don’t think SAG favors Lawrence at all. Chastain has worked more years within the industry doing mostly theatre and bit parts on TV. Something the vast majority of SAG members can relate to. Also I think Chastain comes across as more of a “working” actress since she is classically trained rather than an overnight star that Lawrence is. It will be interesting to see how the race unfolds, but the fact Chastain won an award that many didn’t predict her to win says that she is a real threat to win.

Profile, the visibility of both films, mainstream appeal, etc. all favor Lawrence. We're discussing 100,000+ potential voters, right? I'll stick with Weinstein and the more populist film.

[Michael_Bay]

Yeah, in terms of career recognition, these two are roughly equal (although JLaw now has a franchise success under her belt).

Basically, if we were told three years ago that the 2012 Best Actress race would be between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain, we would've collectively replied: "Between who and who?"

Thank you.

That s what I was trying to say.

Both Jlaw and Chastain are very new and an Oscah would be for BOTH of them a big recognition this early in their respective careers.

[boondoggle]

Profile, the visibility of both films, mainstream appeal, etc. all favor Lawrence. We're discussing 100,000+ potential voters, right? I'll stick with Weinstein and the more populist film.

Both SLP and ZDT are top tier BP contenders so I don’t know how visibility of SLP will be better than ZDT. Also SLP isn’t doing that well in limited release, so its mainstream appeal is in question. Also ZDT will be in wide release during the voting period, even if we are not sure how audiences will react to the film.

[homespun]

Wallis winning these "breakthrough/newcomer" awards looks like it's becoming a trend. I'm worried about her because of that. They usually pull that "breakthrough" crap when they are trying to avoid nominating you in the actual main category.

[RobYo]

I still think Jennifer Lawrence will win. it's a more typical Best Actress vehicle then Zero Dark Thirty. it's funny because JLAW is filming Hunger Games and Jessica is on Broadway so they will have a hard time campaigning. Quvenzhane Wallis is safe I guess even without SAG and I'm not sure the Globes will nominate her ? but the Academy will and that's all that matters

for the last two spots it's anyone's guess but I have to go with my girl Emmanuelle Riva. I want a picture of Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva together. that will be the cutest thing in Oscar history.

(1) Jennifer Lawrence
(2) Jessica Chastain
(3) Quvenzhane Wallis
(4) Emmanuelle Riva
(5) ??????????????????????? I have no clue but [ personally ] I guess I'd pick Kiera Knightley. which I know isn't popular around here haha.

[RobYo]

I was hoping Michelle Williams would win National Board of Review for Take this Waltz just to really mess with our heads haha.

[babz]

Wallis winning these "breakthrough/newcomer" awards looks like it's becoming a trend. I'm worried about her because of that. They usually pull that "breakthrough" crap when they are trying to avoid nominating you in the actual main category.

If she didn't win all or most of the breakthrough awards that would be a major strike against her. The NBR breakthrough was probably a must win to keep her in the conversation.

[Moviefreak]

Profile, the visibility of both films, mainstream appeal, etc. all favor Lawrence. We're discussing 100,000+ potential voters, right? I'll stick with Weinstein and the more populist film.

I don't think ZDT will have a problem being seen, especially if it becomes the frontrunner not just one of them like it currently is.

[with_one_voice]

Wallis winning these "breakthrough/newcomer" awards looks like it's becoming a trend. I'm worried about her because of that. They usually pull that "breakthrough" crap when they are trying to avoid nominating you in the actual main category.

But we haven't had any groups give out a set of nominees yet, they've just named winners. Wallis never really seemed like someone who be snatching up Best Actress critics prizes.

Winning NBR Breakthrough is actually a pretty big deal, as it correlates really well with Oscar nominations, especially for females. Each of the last 7 years all had at least one NBR Breakthrough nominee go on to an Oscar nod, and 6 of those 7 years, it was a female. We all know Tom Holland ain't happening, so yeah. Honestly, Wallis just fits perfectly with the recent trend of lead actresses in Sundance breakout hits, like Lawrence in WB, Sidibe in Precious, Mulligan in An Education, Leo in Frozen River, etc etc. Also, Beasts has held up its buzz well, and will continue to score 'Best First Film'-type wins from critics groups throughout the next few weeks. I think Wallis is pretty safe, and clearly no. 3 after Chastain/Lawrence.

Also, LOL at people saying "Riva is a lock". Yeah, because a relatively unknown Frenchwoman, who won't campaign, delivering a foreign-language performance, and who is extremely unlikely to land either GG and SAG nominations is OBVIOUSLY a lock.

[Maxim]

But we haven't had any groups give out a set of nominees yet, they've just named winners. Wallis never really seemed like someone who be snatching up Best Actress critics prizes.

Technically, Satellite Awards listed nominees and they nominated "Beasts of the Southern Wild" for Best Picture.

[Jonathan]

I want to do the same, but I have no idea who to replace her with. In a race like this, Mirren makes soooo much sense as a filler though. I don't have much faith in Riva and Watts is still such a wild card. I'm sticking with the same top 5 that I've had for a while, but those last 2 spots are anyone's game.

Oh and I'm putting Chastain as the favorite.

01. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
02. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
03. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
04. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
05. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
--
06. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
07. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
08. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
09. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Bingo! Weisz having more votes than Cotillard is just, LOL.

[Jonathan]

Profile, the visibility of both films, mainstream appeal, etc. all favor Lawrence. We're discussing 100,000+ potential voters, right? I'll stick with Weinstein and the more populist film.

Descendants and Moneyball were far more populists films than The Artist, but that didn't stop Dujardin from conquering there. And don't underestimate the populism of a movie about the manhunt for the most despised man of the last 10 years.

[Amanolive]

1. Chastain
2. Lawrence
3. Riva
4. Watts
5. Wallis

[park]

1. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
4. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

[Tracy]

1. Chastain
2. Lawrence
3. Riva
4. Wallis
5. Mirren

Reactions to the ZD30 trailer have been really good everytime I've seen it. I don't think this will be another Hurt Locker. I think this is going to make some money.

[tututaya]

Chastain
Dench
Lawrence
Wallis
Watts

[tututaya]

both jlaw and chastain are very new and an oscah would be for both of them a big recognition this early in their respective careers.

this

[Aurelius]

Instead of looking at the Best Actress in a BP nominee/winner stats, I looked up the stats regarding Best Actress in a film nominated for Best Director.

Since 1990, there have been 24 Best Actress nominees for films that also were nominated for Best Director. Exactly half of them won. What's interesting is that 7 of those actresses nominated ended up losing to another actress in a film with a Directing nomination (Staunton to Swank, Zellweger to Kidman, Scott Thomas to McDormand, Shue to Sarandon, Thompson to Hunter, and Sarandon and Davis to Foster).

Also interesting is that in the last five years, the women who lose have been young (Sidibe and Page), which would theoretically hurt Lawrence.

Granted, I'm not too confident in Russell even getting a Directing nod in the first place, so I don't really know what any of this means!

Nothing. That's less than a quarter of the total number of women nominated in that period, and it doesn't take into account that some of these 24 were perhaps not in the position Lawrence and Chastain are in now.

[guany]

Nothing. That's less than a quarter of the total number of women nominated in that period, and it doesn't take into account that some of these 24 were perhaps not in the position Lawrence and Chastain are in now.

You know it's Oscar season when I start looking up random stats.

Next up: the correlation between Best Sound Mixing and Best Supporting Actress.

[Midnight]

I too am thinking that Chastain wins here now. I hate using my personal feelings on a performance/film for prediction, but after seeing Silver Linings Playbook it just doesn't feel like something that would win here, at least not when you take into account the category having a BP frontrunner/critical darling/rapidly ascending star. I guess Lawrence is rapidly ascending too but not with the same pedigree.

Chastain
Lawrence
Wallis
Cotillard?
Knightley?

Or maybe Watts or Riva? No idea on the last two. I am going crazy with Cotillard's chances again, ugh, and this lineup is too young. Next week will make this category clearer, or maybe even more confusing with the extra SAG slot. I'm still predicting Knightley because she's a noticeable name with a studio that has nobody else to really campaign for in this category, and it's not flopping or anything.