Linda Cardellini – Return
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Emayatzy Corinealdi – Middle of Nowhere
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Maggie Smith – Quartet
Quvenzhané Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
Wallis winning these "breakthrough/newcomer" awards looks like it's becoming a trend. I'm worried about her because of that. They usually pull that "breakthrough" crap when they are trying to avoid nominating you in the actual main category.
I still think Jennifer Lawrence will win. it's a more typical Best Actress vehicle then Zero Dark Thirty. it's funny because JLAW is filming Hunger Games and Jessica is on Broadway so they will have a hard time campaigning. Quvenzhane Wallis is safe I guess even without SAG and I'm not sure the Globes will nominate her ? but the Academy will and that's all that matters
for the last two spots it's anyone's guess but I have to go with my girl Emmanuelle Riva. I want a picture of Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva together. that will be the cutest thing in Oscar history.
(1) Jennifer Lawrence
(2) Jessica Chastain
(3) Quvenzhane Wallis
(4) Emmanuelle Riva
(5) ??????????????????????? I have no clue but [ personally ] I guess I'd pick Kiera Knightley. which I know isn't popular around here haha.
I was hoping Michelle Williams would win National Board of Review for Take this Waltz just to really mess with our heads haha.
Winning NBR Breakthrough is actually a pretty big deal, as it correlates really well with Oscar nominations, especially for females. Each of the last 7 years all had at least one NBR Breakthrough nominee go on to an Oscar nod, and 6 of those 7 years, it was a female. We all know Tom Holland ain't happening, so yeah. Honestly, Wallis just fits perfectly with the recent trend of lead actresses in Sundance breakout hits, like Lawrence in WB, Sidibe in Precious, Mulligan in An Education, Leo in Frozen River, etc etc. Also, Beasts has held up its buzz well, and will continue to score 'Best First Film'-type wins from critics groups throughout the next few weeks. I think Wallis is pretty safe, and clearly no. 3 after Chastain/Lawrence.
Also, LOL at people saying "Riva is a lock". Yeah, because a relatively unknown Frenchwoman, who won't campaign, delivering a foreign-language performance, and who is extremely unlikely to land either GG and SAG nominations is OBVIOUSLY a lock.
"I shall immediately after I'm done watching Homeland." - DirkDiggler on his voting priorities
1. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
4. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Reactions to the ZD30 trailer have been really good everytime I've seen it. I don't think this will be another Hurt Locker. I think this is going to make some money.
I too am thinking that Chastain wins here now. I hate using my personal feelings on a performance/film for prediction, but after seeing Silver Linings Playbook it just doesn't feel like something that would win here, at least not when you take into account the category having a BP frontrunner/critical darling/rapidly ascending star. I guess Lawrence is rapidly ascending too but not with the same pedigree.
Or maybe Watts or Riva? No idea on the last two. I am going crazy with Cotillard's chances again, ugh, and this lineup is too young. Next week will make this category clearer, or maybe even more confusing with the extra SAG slot. I'm still predicting Knightley because she's a noticeable name with a studio that has nobody else to really campaign for in this category, and it's not flopping or anything.