I really think that Arkin is out. Argo is looking more and more like Up in the Air 2.0 every day, and he apparently just doesn't have the screen time or the impact up against competition of this caliber.
I really think that Arkin is out. Argo is looking more and more like Up in the Air 2.0 every day, and he apparently just doesn't have the screen time or the impact up against competition of this caliber.
Yeah, I've been off the Arkin train for a while.
I still say think that Crowe, Hoffman, Jones, McConaughey & Redmayne look good right now, with McGregor, Pena and De Niro hanging in the wings.
I would add the Django guys as well.
Imagine if Jackson were to win NYFCC tommorow, I mean it would be fresh in the critics minds as it was just screened for them. If he won it would turn the whole race upside down
If he wins, which I highly doubt he will, it would be a game changer only because the two out in front at this point already have Oscars.Originally Posted by Denzelfan
He is a previous NYFCC winner, for Jungle Fever. It's still a long shot but if Jackson can get major momentum from the critics I could see him taking down Jones.
I would say the top ten ATM is (alpha):
- Arkin
- De Niro
- DiCaprio
- Hoffman
- Jackson
- Jones
- McConaughey
- McGregor
- Pena
- Redmayne
Yeah I agree. The only surprise I can see happening is Pena and there seems to be a good amount of faith over at Open Road. I'd say look out for BFCA and SAG nods. His first timer status will also help.
I agree with this. Maybe not all three of Hoffman/Jones/De Niro happens? There's still the possibility this category has two newcomers (Redmayne/McConaughey seem likely, but I agree with you that Pena can score at BFCA and SAG possibly). Jackson and DiCaprio are not both getting in, I say whichever one gets in is a threat to win in this category (I'm still not buying Jackson though, just for the record). McGregor is pretty safely out, I think, as well as Arkin and to a lesser extent Crowe. We're clearly not getting a group of five previous nominees (let alone winners), and Hoffman/Jones have the best reviews right now, and Robert De Niro is Robert De Niro. Arkin's role isn't substantial enough and Crowe is not (from what I'm reading) best in show.
I don't know why only the Best Actor category is being called the 'category of death' when that term could just as easily apply to this one.
To call Crowe "not best in show" is generous! He's like, fifth/sixth-best! He's so out. I just hope he isn't near a phone next week when BFCA, SAG, and GG noms are announced.
I'm starting to go into the Jackson camp but I'm waiting for real reviews (or the NYFCC) to confirm him. And yes, Crowe's chances have plunged off a bridge.
I think Best Supporting Actor, though it has a huge amount of contenders, is basically easier to break into than Best Actor right now. Look at Jackson...a couple of positive tweets, and many people think he can slide in. Waltz was getting even more praise, than Jackson yet nobody is thinking he's realistically going to gatecrash Best Actor, because the top contenders are too strong.
So basically, aside from maybe Tommy Lee Jones (who is probably locked), the Supporting Actor field feels wide open. Arkin is being touted, but only because his movie is a frontrunner. DeNiro didn't exactly get undeniable, amazing reviews. People just feel like he might get a "comeback" nod, but that could miss as well. I don't think he'll miss, but someone mentioned waning support for The Master and category fraud (he could be considered co-lead with Phoenix) as a possibility for Hoffman missing, and that isn't completely impossible
Into the Seine?
Mais bien sur.Into the Seine?
I totally agree with this. I'm so sick of hearing that every movie DiCaprio does is "oscarbait." I never hear the same said of George "Give Me Another Oscar" Clooney or his sidekick Brad Pitt (and many others as well). I don't buy that "Shutter Island," or "Body of Lies," or "Inception" were Oscar bait at all.
If Leo was so desparate for an Oscar, why doesn't he campaign? He didn't campaign when "The Departed" came out and even with "Blood Diamond," he made one TV appearance. (Unlike Clooney, who when he has an Oscar contender, he's on every talk show, magazine cover and even gets a new girlfriend to parade around.) The TV schedule for "Django Unchained" cast appearances has everyone, including Foxx, Waltz, Jackson, even Don Johnson, doing the rounds on morning shows and late night talk shows but no DiCaprio. One would assume if he was so crazed about getting an Oscar, he'd be doing some talk shows. He rarely shows for Guild screenings and usually, if he talks Oscar, he's gushing about some co-star. At this point in his career, and given that he's been nominated three times, I think he knows that with the Oscars (or any award), it's not about the performance or how "oscarbaity" one might think the role, but the campaigning that helps.
I think DiCaprio gets nominated when he is (1) not expected to and (2) when they can't NOT nominate him. His first nomination for "What's Eating Gilbert Grape," occurred when he was a 19 year old kid from nowhere. When he was nominated for "The Aviator," it came when no one thought he could pull off playing Howard Hughes and the movie was nominiated for eleven Oscars. How could they not nominate him? (I realize they didn't for "Titanic," but that wasn't as praised a performance.) When he was nominated for "Blood Diamond," that happened when everyone thought he'd get in for "The Departed." Also, at that time, word was he couldn't play a tough guy. Yet, that year he played two tough guys and given the great reviews he got for both roles, I think the Academy felt it needed to nominate him for something, if only for the great year he had.
I don't think the Academy particularly hates Leo; I just think they don't particularly want to award him either. For one thing, he doesn't need an Oscar to boost his career. Much like Paul Newman or Henry Fonda before him, he's a good actor and a huge star. I also think that he's perceived as being much younger than he is. Even though he's nearly 40, people see him as the "kid," and assume he has lots of chances to get nominiation at some other point. Finally, I think some of the old white geezers look at him and think, he's good looking, works with the best directors, gets great roles and bangs hot supermodels -- why not let him beg for Oscar?
About Dicaprio: I think his problem is less about his so-called "oscar-baity" films than about his acting. He just never comes off relaxed on screen, whether he's in a sci-fi Nolan film or in the last Eastwood biopic. He comes off as exactly the same. The same look-at-me, squinty eyed, fury eyebrows, whispering line delivery routine. He relies so much on tricks that it has become more and more boring and even unpleasant to watch him throughout the years. He doesn't need to show up on every talk show and showing how much he wants an Oscar. His acting already says it all. Clooney may parade around on Oscar season but people find his laid-back acting style pleasant so he doesn't come off as desperate when they actually watch the film.
Dicaprio can play tough guys. Well that are really news to me. The thing is and you fan boys and girls just can't get over it, he is just a good actor and only for certain roles. Dicaprio doesn't annoy me but his fan boys and girls and with every new role of him they always scream he needs to win an oscar for this. That is where all this "oscar bait" discussion comes from. When I read posts like he needed to win an oscar for Shutter Island, sorry that's pretty ridiculous.
Sorry but all actors have a style. Maybe you like Clooney's and don't like DiCaprio's. For my taste, I'll take DiCaprio's. Lots of actors are "relaxed" on screen. DeNiro for instance, or even the man whose picture you posted -- Marlon Brando. Talk about squinty, over the top angst.
The scene when he realizes was more deserving of the Oscar than all five of the nominees that year combined.
That isn't fanboyism speaking. DiCaprio was THAT fucking good in "Shutter Island."
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION - INOCA 2012
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