Best Picture: November, 3

[Moviefreak]

Every measure is flawed, but you bring up Audience Award wins as an indication of passion and/or popular support and I think BO is a better (not the ultimate) measure of that. To me, it's just weird to bring up festivals in November when I really don't think they matter that much anymore at this point.

[Jonathan]

That's not true because BO office indicates what movie is the most seen, not what movie is liked best. This is not arguable.

To be fair, we can already gauge from the box office performances of Argo and Lincoln that audience adore both, as the former has had astounding legs and against odds made it to $100 million (Or will in the next week), while Lincoln had a drop on par with The Blind Side in its second weekend, which would put the movie on track for at least a $140+ million total (Making it Spielberg's highest grossing straight drama since Catch me If You Can). Silver Linings Playbook is still too young to really gauge though, so we'll have to wait and see, but it clearly has a ways to go to prove itself.

[McTeague]

That's rich coming from the master of manipulating stats and reviews to fit his narratives.

Nice try at finding a hideaway! Doesn't make my point wrong, but it was a good escape attempt!

And it still won two. Show me a link of it winning the Audience Award at the Hollywood Film Awards. It doesn't even have such an award!

LOL ah, that ruins my point, sure! It wasn't 3 audience awards but 2 audience awards and 1 award given by a jury made of industry people! That must mean you win.

[Moviefreak]

I still think it's silly to bring up audience awards in November when all these films have actually premiered.

[Aurelius]

LOL ah, that ruins my point, sure! It wasn't 3 audience awards but 2 audience awards and 1 award given by a jury made of industry people! That must mean you win.

A jury that you yourself admit can be bought .

Click on the links I post, for once.

[McTeague]

I still think it's silly to bring up audience awards in November when all these films have actually premiered.

I still think it's not.

Not sure about the point of arguing again since you'll still say "I still think it's silly to bring up audience awards in November when all these films have actually premiered" regardless, but those festivals are so far the only competition we've had in which two BP frontrunners have been pit against each other. And the three times such a competition has happened, SLP has won. It's an indication. It's not "the" indication, but it adds a head-to-head competition angle that BO and reviews don't have.

[McTeague]

A jury that you yourself admit can be bought .

Click on the links I post, for once.

I perfectly know what I said, and I still think the same, that these juries can be bought. Just like the juries of the Globes, of BFCA and even the Oscars, like Harvey has proved time and time again. So the fact that it can be bought doesn't alter anything in my point.

[guany]

What gives me pause is that Silver Linings Playbook has been winning audience awards left and right, and often in direct competition with Argo. That’s something Juno or Sideways or whatever simply didn’t have. I think the dramas this year are too big for a small comedy/dramedy to win (those always win by default), but in terms of passion, I’d say SLP easily edges Argo and Lincoln out, reviews be damned. I think SLP is the very definition of a dark horse that might…

LOL. Then why aren't you predicting De Niro? Surely if Silver Linings Playbook is that strong, he'll be swept along, no?

[Aurelius]

I still think it's not.

Not sure about the point of arguing again since you'll still say "I still think it's silly to bring up audience awards in November when all these films have actually premiered" regardless, but those festivals are so far the only competition we've had in which two BP frontrunners have been pit against each other. And the three times such a competition has happened, SLP has won. It's an indication. It's not "the" indication, but it adds a head-to-head competition angle that BO and reviews don't have.

Two times. Two.

But I see you regard this as semantics in the Best Supporting Actress thread as well.

[Aurelius]

I perfectly know what I said, and I still think the same, that these juries can be bought. Just like the juries of the Globes, of BFCA and even the Oscars, like Harvey has proved time and time again. So the fact that it can be bought doesn't alter anything in my point.

So then you would say it's buying Audience Awards left and right? That doesn't really say much about the love the audience has for it, does it? Of course, not to mention that the festival where it supposedly bought the prize DOESN'T EVEN HAVE AN AUDIENCE AWARD.

[McTeague]

LOL. Then why aren't you predicting De Niro? Surely if Silver Linings Playbook is that strong, he'll be swept along, no?

Because De Niro hasn't won awards for himself and acting is a different race.

And I don't get Au's post: TIFF, Hamptons, HFF = 3? (stand corrected that the later is not an audience award but an industry award, but other than that they still competed and SLP won).

[Moviefreak]

Because De Niro hasn't won awards for himself and acting is a different race.

But, nobody has won any awards for themselves yet really.

[Aurelius]

At the Hollywood Film Awards, films don't compete against each other. Furthermore, your initial point was that it won three Audience Awards. It did not.

[Moviefreak]

At the Hollywood Film Awards, films don't compete against each other. Furthermore, your initial point was that it won three Audience Awards. It did not.

Not only that, but he said that those three awards indicate that there is passion for SLP, but if these awards are mostly bought, does that really indicate passion then?

[Aurelius]

Because De Niro hasn't won awards for himself and acting is a different race.

But he has. And guess where: at your beloved Hollywood Film Awards!

[McTeague]

But he has. And guess where: at your beloved Hollywood Film Awards!

Oh well, thanks for the info! I'll move him above Dwight Henry now.

[Aaron Leggo]

As for Best Picture, I'd probably say this currently:

01. Lincoln
02. Argo
03. Les Miserables
04. Silver Linings Playbook
05. Zero Dark Thirty
06. Life of Pi
07. The Master
08. Beasts of the Southern Wild
--
09. The Impossible
10. Flight
11. Django Unchained

Those eight look very solid to me. The Impossible makes a lot of sense as a nominee as well and that would give us 9 like last year, but I'm still waiting for more of a consensus.

Your top eight does indeed look solid, especially the top six, which I guess are all as close to locks as anything can get at this point in the race.

But I keep feeling like Flight is going to squeeze into the race. Or maybe The Impossible does instead. I just figure that some old-fashioned, sentimental adult drama has to squeeze in here somewhere, ala The Blind Side or *shudder* Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. As of now, I'd probably predict 9 picture nominees, mostly to be on the safe side, and also because if one of those movies seemingly on the edge does make it in, what could it possibly push out? Beasts is most vulnerable, I guess, but a popular, well reviewed indie like that still stands a good chance of making the final cut.

Or if not Flight/The Impossible, then I'd still go with The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel as a potential spoiler.

[Jonathan]

Passion for Flight shouldn't be underestimated. It still has three 100s on MC, and the alcoholism storyline could resonate with a lot of AMPAS members (What was the last film about acloholism to break out like Flight has, anyway?).

And really, we shouldn't forget the amount of passion Beasts clearly has behind it. It's going to have far and away the most 100s for any American film this year, it's already had a couple of celebrity endorsements that show it can resonate with the AMPAS voter, and it has one of the strongest studios in the Oscar race behind it. In a field like this I hoenstly feel like it's almost as strong as the current Top 6 everyone has. Heck, it might even be stronger than Life of Pi.

[Moviefreak]

Your top eight does indeed look solid, especially the top six, which I guess are all as close to locks as anything can get at this point in the race.

But I keep feeling like Flight is going to squeeze into the race. Or maybe The Impossible does instead. I just figure that some old-fashioned, sentimental adult drama has to squeeze in here somewhere, ala The Blind Side or *shudder* Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. As of now, I'd probably predict 9 picture nominees, mostly to be on the safe side, and also because if one of those movies seemingly on the edge does make it in, what could it possibly push out? Beasts is most vulnerable, I guess, but a popular, well reviewed indie like that still stands a good chance of making the final cut.

Or if not Flight/The Impossible, then I'd still go with The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel as a potential spoiler.

Oh, I agree. I think The Impossible in particular would make a lot of sense. I'm just waiting until we get more of a critical consensus on the film. For now, it's sort of in limbo. Flight is strange, because the buzz on it is kind of waning, but I can see it getting into the NBR top ten and getting a PGA or even a BCFA nomination. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel should really probably be at #11 on my list just because it'll appeal to the actors.

[babz]

Moonrise making a strong run at these independent film awards. I think it has the best chance of any 'Independent' film' to get in if they push it hard enough.