Best Supporting Actor: November, 3

[Moviefreak]

Eh, I think there are many, many examples of nominations like that one through history. It's a text-book case. People don't look for actressing like we do in here (and I say "we" to be polite, because I really don't). People just love a movie and remember "Ha, wasn't Arkin a hoot in that? I have to put some actor from Argo in there, because that cast was amazing". All Argo lovers will place him #1 because they know it's their one chance, and they have this "he was a hoot" mentality. Like, if the year was weak as, say, 2001, I'd predict him for win #2. It's the one place where voters of Argo can award that acst (except in SAG, but still he'll probably get in there too, where screentime has never been a problem and where they owe him for 2007). I think it's AD who's underestimating him because he's not actressy in the film. And I would listen to you if AD didn't have this long history of underestimating un-actressy actors in BP contenders like Keener in Capote, Alda in Aviator, Damon in Invictus, Hoffmann in Charlie Wilson, Wahlberg in Departed, Dillon in Crash, Bonham Carter in King's Speech... Year after year there's this contender that you say "does nothing" (and "has no individual praise", and "has no actressing moment"... all those AD memes) but by virtue of being good and in a beloved BP frontrunner gets in. Let alone if he's not just "good" but "a hoot" and the MVP. I've learnt my lesson. It's odd you haven't.

Argo is such a pure ensemble piece. I suppose Arkin has the most memorable character of the cast, but even then it just doesn't stand out enough. I was predicting him only when I thought that Argo was winning Best Picture, but now that I don't, I don't see any reason to think he'll be nominated in a year this rich with so many options. In a weaker year, he would have had a better chance. I mean, he can still be nominated, but I don't know why you have that much faith in him.

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

Argo is such a pure ensemble piece. I suppose Arkin has the most memorable character of the cast, but even then it just doesn't stand out enough. I was predicting him only when I thought that Argo was winning Best Picture, but now that I don't, I don't see any reason to think he'll be nominated in a year this rich with so many options. In a weaker year, he would have had a better chance. I mean, he can still be nominated, but I don't know why you have that much faith in him.

This exactly. Argo ain't really winning BP now, so there's no point in giving Arkin a slot.

[Atonenent.]

I can't see why anyone would still predict Crowe. Yes, he has the role and the film, but he's - at best - 6th best as far as reviews go.

[crazyfists3600]

I can't see why anyone would still predict Crowe. Yes, he has the role and the film, but he's - at best - 6th best as far as reviews go.

Just you wait.

[Moviefreak]

It's admirable that you're trying so hard and sticking to your guns, but you should start preparing yourself for disappointment. Just sayin'.

[Shy_Hallaman]

This exactly. Argo ain't really winning BP now, so there's no point in giving Arkin a slot.

Erm, do they nominate performances only from films that might win?

[crazyfists3600]

I'm not really trying that hard, I just see it happening. The full blown reviews have not been released yet and I find it kind of AD-like for the people who didn't want to predict Crowe all year (whether because they want Les Mis to fail or because they don't like Crowe) to jump all over a few tweets and a review or two that don't praise him (hardly negative in the complete sense) saying that he's DOA. Seriously, for Redmayne? No. Wait until the film opens wide and the full reviews come in before writing him off completely.

[Moviefreak]

That kind of sounds like all the Keira fans telling us to wait for the American reviews to come in before everything changes. There have been two screenings of the film, both of which were attended by a lot of people in the know. The response to the film overall has been very positive and even then the mentions for Crowe overall have been lukewarm at best. He's a pretty polarizing personality (some would say unlikeable), so I think he would need unanimous praise to get nominated again. He might still get it, but judging from the early response, I think it's highly unlikely. That he's currently getting overshadowed by Eddie Redmayne speaks volumes.

[Mike Aiello]

That kind of sounds like all the Keira fans telling us to wait for the American reviews to come in before everything changes. There have been two screenings of the film, both of which were attended by a lot of people in the know. The response to the film overall has been very positive and even then the mentions for Crowe overall have been lukewarm at best. He's a pretty polarizing personality (some would say unlikeable), so I think he would need unanimous praise to get nominated again. He might still get it, but judging from the early response, I think it's highly unlikely. That he's currently getting overshadowed by Eddie Redmayne speaks volumes.

This. I can see people arguing that both Crowe and Redmayne could get nominated (though I disagree) but Redmayne is clearly getting better buzz at the moment. Yeah, maybe they're just tweets and not official reviews, so why then are people arguing DiCaprio's happening when there's no word on him or the film yet, other than what Harvey said months ago?

I'm willing to bet Crowe is out. There's no need for another former Oscar winner in this category (De Niro, Jones, and Hoffman cover those bases), plus as MovieFreak said...Crowe isn't all that popular anymore either.

[erikdean]

In my defense, I'm not a Crowe fan in the way that crazy is or the way Keira fans are for her. I'm honestly looking at it from what I view is likely. I mean, both Crowe and Redmayne getting in is entirely possible too!

[crazyfists3600]

In my defense, I'm not a Crowe fan in the way that crazy is or the way Keira fans are for her. I'm honestly looking at it from what I view is likely. I mean, both Crowe and Redmayne getting in is entirely possible too!

Yeah, I mean...I've said this from the start; it is less the actor (yes, I am a big fan) and more the role that is undeniable. That said, Crowe is also a great actor and this is a perfectly suited role for him. Add to that the comeback of sorts he is having with high profile projects announced for the next few years and the fact that this movie is going to be huge and you have an actor who is in a really good spot for a nomination.

[erikdean]

Yeah, I mean...I've said this from the start; it is less the actor (yes, I am a big fan) and more the role that is undeniable. That said, Crowe is also a great actor and this is a perfectly suited role for him. Add to that the comeback of sorts he is having with high profile projects announced for the next few years and the fact that this movie is going to be huge and you have an actor who is in a really good spot for a nomination.

Yeah, I think he's outrun his past behavior from a decade ago to not be a factor.

[crazyfists3600]

Yeah, I think he's outrun his past behavior from a decade ago to not be a factor.

This too. The phone incident was in 2005. It's been SEVEN YEARS. Seriously, I don't think anyone is pissed at him about that anymore. I find it somewhat hilarious that people here are going to argue that someone like Arkin, who was barely singled out in reviews that clearly pointed to Argo being an ensemble that no one could really decide who was best-in-show or someone like De Niro who has a small role that garnered him decent at best reviews in a film that is underperforming and fading from the spotlight are in a better position than Crowe who is going to be in the epic of the year as the chief antagonist in a role that is arguably a co-lead with 'baity as fuck' written all over it. Seriously, call me a fan boy all you want, but I call it being realistic

[Moviefreak]

The character is very well known and very baity and the fact that he hasn't gotten better notices coming out of the screenings is exactly my problem here. This character, if done well, really should have made much more of an impression than Crowe has thus far.

[jjj]

Yeah, the Valjean-Javert thing is THE point of Les Miz to me. I would've thought the reviews would be all about them, plus raves for Annie.

[guany]

I have no idea what the Nile has to do with anything, but OK!

[filmy]

I have no idea what the Nile has to do with anything, but OK!

Denial. Duh!

[erikdean]

I'm pretty sure that's just an old 'de-Nile' joke, no?

[Souler]

It took me years to understand this saying (English not being my first language), so I was really proud I immediately got it

[guany]

God, it doesn't matter if Crowe's part is "baity as fuck" if he's getting overshadowed by the other supporting actor in his film. Hello?!

Let's just hope that Crowe and Redmayne aren't together in the same room as a phone following Nomination Morning. Though, I guess Russell can always use his mobile.