Best Supporting Actress: November, 3

[McTeague]

Oh, yeah, I forget about that!

Eh, I'd say it's in 4th place at best.

I'm predicting Les Mis to win SAG (and I also think it's the one place where Jackman can beat DDL, if nominated).

I think it’s SLP what’s a distant 4th at SAG. People say Weaver has nothing to do, and she’s still 4th billed, so I’m assuming (correct me if I’m wrong) it’s a cast of just 3 substantial roles. Those hardly ever win. Sideways at least had Oh with a substantial role, and it was a weak year for the category. The closest comparison would be The King’s Speech, but that was the BP frontrunner and, as much as I think SLP can be a dark horse, a dark horse is still not a frontrunner. Plus, TKS had all those huge prestige names from the British stage (Gambon, Jaconi, Spall, Bloom…) which SLP doesn’t have.

I say it’s Les Mis vs. Argo vs. Lincoln, neck to neck at this stage.

[guany]

Well, the reason I think SLP is in a better position than Argo to win SAG is that it will actually win one of the other acting awards (Lawrence). And I am not predicting De Niro to win his 3rd Oscar or anything, but I think SAG is the one place where he can win seeing as how he's a respected veteran who has never won there. Problem is, he's up against like 800 other respected veterans who have never won SAG awards!

Argo doesn't have a single performer with enough buzz to win an individual acting award.

Ultimately, this SLP vs Argo discussion is a bit pointless considering this is clearly a race between Les Mis and Lincoln.

[Moviefreak]

I don't think Argo even has enough buzz to get a single individual acting nomination let alone a win. That's why it won't win ensemble. This is no Lord of the Rings.

[McTeague]

Sideways, Crash, Little Miss Sunshine, The Full Monty, The Birdcage or Apollo XIII didn't win individual awards and weren't BP winners like LOTR or Slumdog (save Crash, but not an undeniable frontrunner likle LOTR or Slumdog) and they won ensemble awards.

Argo looks a lot like some of them.

[Moviefreak]

Apollo 13 won an individual award. But, I don't think that Argo will even get an individual acting nomination and the only films to win the Ensemble without any other nods were ROTK and The Full Monty. The latter was just a really strange win.

[McTeague]

Apollo 13 won an individual award. But, I don't think that Argo will even get an individual acting nomination and the only films to win the Ensemble without any other nods were ROTK and The Full Monty. The latter was just a really strange win.

It was a win for a beloved, popular movie with a large cast that couldn't be awarded elsewhere. Like Argo.

[guany]

Again, this is pointless seeing as how Les Mis or Lincoln are going to win. It's pretty obvious, IMO.

[Donezo]

I actually think SAG will throw a bone to Alan Arkin. They love old people and I doubt they'll see Django in time for nominations, thus eliminating a strong option in DiCaprio. Argo would look like a possible winner if not for the character actor's wet dream that is Lincoln. Les Miz is definitely a possible winner too.

[crazyfists3600]

Les Mis will destroy at the SAG

[Moviefreak]

I actually think SAG will throw a bone to Alan Arkin. They love old people and I doubt they'll see Django in time for nominations, thus eliminating a strong option in DiCaprio. Argo would look like a possible winner if not for the character actor's wet dream that is Lincoln. Les Miz is definitely a possible winner too.

They could, but there are already plenty of old people in the race and I think Matthew McConaughey looks like a really good bet for a SAG nomination as well. There are a lot of options in Supporting Actor.

[Aurelius]

They could, but there are already plenty of old people in the race and I think Matthew McConaughey looks like a really good bet for a SAG nomination as well. There are a lot of options in Supporting Actor.

For which par, you think? Mike or Joe? Or, heaven forbid, The Paperboy ?

[Moviefreak]

For which par, you think? Mike or Joe? Or, heaven forbid, The Paperboy ?

I wish it would be for Killer Joe, but it'll be for Magic Mike.

[erikdean]

For which par, you think? Mike or Joe? Or, heaven forbid, The Paperboy ?

There's no way he'd be able to make it in for the smaller films, it'll be MM, just like Chastain got in for The Help instead of her better performances last year.

[HoneyDarling]

Why are people talking about the talentless MM on the Supporting Actress thread?

[DameMelissaLeo]

Dame Leo says,

The Nominees will be:

Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
Annie Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Sally Field, Lincoln
Judi Dench, Skyfall

[Tracy]

Hmmm...this seems an interesting inclusion. Could Kerry Washington have a shot?

[HollyG]

I don't know if she really has a shot, but her male co-stars are all praising the shit out of her. Either she's really that great, or they're just being gentlemen.

[with_one_voice]

Do Channing Tatum and JGL have a shot?

[erikdean]

Do Channing Tatum and JGL have a shot?

[Tracy]

JGL and Channing Tatum were included for obvious reasons though. They both had huge years. Kerry Washington being included is pretty random, unless her role in DU is more than we think.