Jessica Chastain Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard Rust and Bone
Judi Dench The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Keira Knightley Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva Amour
Maggie Smith Quartet
Quvenzhan้ Wallis Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts The Impossible
Corinealdi is a longshot and she may need to score major critics attention to happen because the campaign doesn't really have the resources that Bichir's did(even if people didn't see him coming) but being black is SO not a factor. You think people won't watch it because she's black? Or do you think there are only a few voters that support black actors and they can only go with one? They aren't directly competing with each other just because of race! Especially since Wallis is in a Picture contender and has a gimmick that makes race almost irrelevant with her. They are two completely different actresses with two different movies that might appeal to completely different people...
Black actresses never get leading roles. They never get nominated. How can there be two when there is rarely even one in a year?
Can Emaytatzy get an awards push for SAG? Her studio is a tiny, independent one (I mean it's basically being single handedly distributed by its filmmaker Ava Duvernay) and box-office was tiny.
There are a lot of reasons why Emaytatzy is a longshot at best, and not a single one of them has anything to do with Wallis.
So I looked over at gurus of gold + Tapley and Rogers (28 pundits in total) to see what they were predicting and I got the following numbers
1. Lawrence - 27/28 - yeah Fox News is not predicting her
2. Cotillard - 25/28
3. Chastain - 24/28
4. Wallis - 19/28
5. Riva - 13/28
6. Knightley - 10/28
7. Watts - 9/28
7. Mirren - 9/28
Last edited by Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev; 11-29-2012 at 10:58 PM.
Jali Awards Best Actress 1920-1925
1920 Tora Teje, Erotikon // 1921 Pola Negri, The wildcat
1922 Anna May Wong, The toll of the sea // 1923 Marion Davies, Little old New York
1924 Marie Prevost, The marriage circle // 1925 Gloria Swanson, Stage struck
I don't know about Judi Dench. I mean, her film and performance have been forgotten. And this is the definition of a filler nod, will the Academy members give her #01 votes for this performance? Mrs. Henderson Presents was released in a very weak year (this year is not weak, it's just an open field), she had Harvey Weinstein, the film also had to do with World War II in the last 30 or so minutes, so I guess it felt a bit more important to them? Lol. And it was released in December or something, so there was substantial buzz. She was also LAFCA's runner-up.
She's borderline supporting in Marigold, she barely has anything Oscar-baity to do, and this is not the performance that guarantees passionate support. I don't know, even if she gets BAFTA, Golden Globe and SAG nominations, I don't think she can be nominated. The BAFTAs will vote for her because she's Dench, the Globes because she's in the empty Comedy category, and the SAGs because Wallis is ineligible.
Oh and The Impossible not even being in the Academy's longlist for Best VFX is troubling. Maybe we're overestimating the film and Watts' chances?