Jessica Chastain Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard Rust and Bone
Judi Dench The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Keira Knightley Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva Amour
Maggie Smith Quartet
Quvenzhan้ Wallis Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts The Impossible
Other
Don't pretend like race doesn't factor into these things, notice how most black nominees come from films that white people produce, write or direct. Sasha Stone mentioned this not to long ago in one of her articles, that films that are produced, written or directed by blacks rarely get any buzz (she mentioned Antoine Fisher, The Great Debaters, Middle of Nowhere, Do the Right Thing, etc).Originally Posted by guany
See two foreign contenders from the same studio can be a stretch because it does take a certain amount of pushing and campaigning to get a voter to watch a foreign film and those type of films may not appeal to every voter. You may need to be in the right frame of mind to watch. But race is so....
Corinealdi is a longshot and she may need to score major critics attention to happen because the campaign doesn't really have the resources that Bichir's did(even if people didn't see him coming) but being black is SO not a factor. You think people won't watch it because she's black? Or do you think there are only a few voters that support black actors and they can only go with one? They aren't directly competing with each other just because of race! Especially since Wallis is in a Picture contender and has a gimmick that makes race almost irrelevant with her. They are two completely different actresses with two different movies that might appeal to completely different people...
Black actresses never get leading roles. They never get nominated. How can there be two when there is rarely even one in a year?
Can Emaytatzy get an awards push for SAG? Her studio is a tiny, independent one (I mean it's basically being single handedly distributed by its filmmaker Ava Duvernay) and box-office was tiny.
I think Bichir's nomination has made some people think that any tiny film with a little buzz can score there if they get a campaign. It's been screened for the SAG but everything is and it could happen but it would be a bigger shock than Bichir was. His campaign was so much bigger.
Right up there with "What was that movie Judi Dench was in? Aw whatever." *scribbles in Judi Dench & intentionally leaves the role and film title blank*
Will Oscar have Riva Fever?
He also had a better known director and a much bigger studio (Summit). The company that distributes Middle of Nowhere AAFFRM is Ava DuVernay's. I listened to a NPR interview where she was talking about how she's literally the one who books the film into theatres herself. I mean, I would love to see Emayatzy score a nom but I just think her studio is too small to push her, the film is so small and there are so many known alternative contenders who could make it in before her.
This is an entirely different discussion and has nothing to do with your theory that Academy members consciously only nominate one Black woman for Best Actress in any given year.
There are a lot of reasons why Emaytatzy is a longshot at best, and not a single one of them has anything to do with Wallis.
Okay, perhaps I'm Over exaggerating but it's true that it's harder for minorities to get nominated for the bigger awards.
Yes, it is harder for minorities to be nominated but at this point it is not a detractor for either of them. For Wallis it's her age and Emaytazy it's her films small status. Their race will not be the reason if they are snubbed and certainly one won't get in over the other because of it.
So I looked over at gurus of gold + Tapley and Rogers (28 pundits in total) to see what they were predicting and I got the following numbers
1. Lawrence - 27/28 - yeah Fox News is not predicting her
2. Cotillard - 25/28
3. Chastain - 24/28
4. Wallis - 19/28
5. Riva - 13/28
6. Knightley - 10/28
7. Watts - 9/28
7. Mirren - 9/28
Last edited by Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev; 11-29-2012 at 10:58 PM.
Incoming!!
they have cotillard so high, she's even less of a sure thing than knightley. lol
Cotillard is campaigning like crazy, going to events, festivals, being honored at some of those events, FYC ads in the trades, HR round table, radio interviews and TV, etc.
Well, Knightley is doings many of those things too - but her film is much more high profile, making much more money at the box office and she is the sole lead of her film. I don't think it is a stretch to say she might be ahead of Cotillard who can't even score a European Film Nomination.
01. Lawrence
02. Chastain
03. Wallis
04. Watts
05. Riva
06. Knightley
07. Mirren
08. Dench
09. Cotillard
10. Winstead
11. Cardellini
Jali Awards Best Actress 1920-1925
1920 Tora Teje, Erotikon // 1921 Pola Negri, The wildcat
1922 Anna May Wong, The toll of the sea // 1923 Marion Davies, Little old New York
1924 Marie Prevost, The marriage circle // 1925 Gloria Swanson, Stage struck
This is stupid, Watts is more likely than Cotillard by a wide margin, although I'm predicting both. The Impossible is a probably Picture contender, while Cotillard would be Rust and Bone's only nomination.
In terms of quality, it is an undeniably exceptional performance. Audiences and critics agree. What I'm saying is that it's not a Sandra Bullock or a Natalie Portman situation, for example, who also have detractors because some people hated their performance. And she's so winning both LAFCA and NSFC, check their awards history. It's also an open field, and she gives a physical performance in the critical darling film of the year, which also happens to be a big Oscar contender. So yeah, whatever.
I don't know about Judi Dench. I mean, her film and performance have been forgotten. And this is the definition of a filler nod, will the Academy members give her #01 votes for this performance? Mrs. Henderson Presents was released in a very weak year (this year is not weak, it's just an open field), she had Harvey Weinstein, the film also had to do with World War II in the last 30 or so minutes, so I guess it felt a bit more important to them? Lol. And it was released in December or something, so there was substantial buzz. She was also LAFCA's runner-up.
She's borderline supporting in Marigold, she barely has anything Oscar-baity to do, and this is not the performance that guarantees passionate support. I don't know, even if she gets BAFTA, Golden Globe and SAG nominations, I don't think she can be nominated. The BAFTAs will vote for her because she's Dench, the Globes because she's in the empty Comedy category, and the SAGs because Wallis is ineligible.
Oh and The Impossible not even being in the Academy's longlist for Best VFX is troubling. Maybe we're overestimating the film and Watts' chances?
Oh since when is the perpetually underestimated Ms. Watts suddenly being overestimated? It must be a joke, haha!
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