Best Actress: November, 6

[electric_storm]

I'm totally predicting a nod for Emayatzy at SAG which could lead to her being the Bichir of the year, or could be a sign that Wallis is ineligible, Riva is an unlikely get there and films like The Impossible and ZD30 have come out really late in the game.

[Mika00]

R&B is a very high profile movie because of Audiard (Oscar nom/ double bafta winner/ double BFI winner/ Cannes' jury grand prize winner...), Cotillard (Oscar, bafta, globe...), the multiple selections on the circuit (Cannes, BFI...) and the general praise of the movie. Cotillard is becoming a sure thing IMO because first of all it is worthy enough for a nomination. Then she made a few appearance in different talk shows, THR selected her for it's annual roundtable, the TIMES made an hour long live interview with her, she had numerous tributes and even the Hollywood actress award a few month ago. Of course TDKR and the Cannes film fest helped her to stay exposed all year. And there are also the countless magazines' covers all over the world and her special relationship with DIOR (She shot a few spots directed by great directors).
ALL of that represent a LOT of exposure and the fact that she enjoys a great reputation & that she's a previous winner can only help her. The funny fact is that I'm sure she's only targeting the nomination, i think she knows very well that she can't win this year.

J.Lawrence
M.Cotillard
N.Watts
J.Chastain
H.Mirren

[Jonathan]

Eh, I know Marigold was a well-sized hit (Far bigger than Hitchcock could dream to be), but I still highly doubt Dench actually becoming a thing. BAFTA might go for her, sure, and the GG-Comedy category should be empty enough, but it's such a light film that even though Dench's character has her dramatic beats (Being recently widowed, making big life changes late in life), is it really anything that's going to inspire a whole lot of interest in a year with so many heavy contenders? I highly doubt BFCA will nominate her, and I just don't sense a SAG nomination for her. I dunno, even by Dench standards it seems like it would be too lazy of a nomination. And don't forget that most of her nominated performances had Harvey behind them, something she doesn't have the benefit of this year.

[NoirJo]

Mirren, Chastain and Watts' films are released in early February, late January and early January respectively, so if one (or all) of these films don't get a 'special' screening until December 20, they're going to be ineligible. If all these ladies are ineligible, then I guess our nominees will be: Jennifer Lawrence, Marion Cotillard, Emmanuelle Riva, Judi Dench and Quvenzhane Wallis (Keira Knightley might take Wallis' spot).

[erikdean]

Eh, I know Marigold was a well-sized hit (Far bigger than Hitchcock could dream to be), but I still highly doubt Dench actually becoming a thing. BAFTA might go for her, sure, and the GG-Comedy category should be empty enough, but it's such a light film that even though Dench's character has her dramatic beats (Being recently widowed, making big life changes late in life), is it really anything that's going to inspire a whole lot of interest in a year with so many heavy contenders? I highly doubt BFCA will nominate her, and I just don't sense a SAG nomination for her. I dunno, even by Dench standards it seems like it would be too lazy of a nomination. And don't forget that most of her nominated performances had Harvey behind them, something she doesn't have the benefit of this year.

Lazier than Mrs. Henderson Presents?? No.

I'm not saying it's happening but I'm looking into it.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Fools, if anyone's pulling a Bichir it's Cardellini.

[Jonathan]

Lazier than Mrs. Henderson Presents?? No.

I'm not saying it's happening but I'm looking into it.

But again, that was of Harvey's doing, and in one of the weakest years for the category ever, like ever-ever. They nearly nominated Ziyi Zhang for MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA. And I'm certainly not discounting her (I'd put her at #8-ish right now), but I'm less convinced on her than McT is on Cotillard.

[Moviefreak]

Eh, I know Marigold was a well-sized hit (Far bigger than Hitchcock could dream to be), but I still highly doubt Dench actually becoming a thing. BAFTA might go for her, sure, and the GG-Comedy category should be empty enough, but it's such a light film that even though Dench's character has her dramatic beats (Being recently widowed, making big life changes late in life), is it really anything that's going to inspire a whole lot of interest in a year with so many heavy contenders? I highly doubt BFCA will nominate her, and I just don't sense a SAG nomination for her. I dunno, even by Dench standards it seems like it would be too lazy of a nomination. And don't forget that most of her nominated performances had Harvey behind them, something she doesn't have the benefit of this year.

In a Wallis-less field, Dench could easily get a SAG nomination, especially because The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is the type of film that could appeal to actors. With GG, SAG and BAFTA nominations she'll be a force. Don't forget that she'll have some goodwill from Skyfall as well. I don't think she's that much of a stretch actually.

[Jonathan]

In a Wallis-less field, Dench could easily get a SAG nomination, especially because The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is the type of film that could appeal to actors. With GG, SAG and BAFTA nominations she'll be a force. Don't forget that she'll have some goodwill from Skyfall as well. I don't think she's that much of a stretch actually.

Ugh, I keep forgetting about Wallis not being at SAG. OK, I guess that opens it up for Dench, though I think Watts might be more likely to swipe to that open spot (As she as a whole looking stronger and stronger). Skyfall will certainly help, though frankly I feel like she'd be more likely to be nominated for that in Supporting than for Marigold in Lead...but that's mostly because that category is so pathetic.

[with_one_voice]

I feel like Dench makes SO much sense, in many ways, but I still can't bring myself to predict her. I'm mostly troubled by the fact that she and her film currently have NO buzz, which makes me wary of predicting her. I'm also not sure if she'll get a BAFTA nomination; I almost think SAG is more likely for her. I think that Marigold Hotel may have been a bigger deal in the US than in the UK, and BAFTA has plenty of other British and European choices to go to.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Plus BAFTA will definitely nominate her for Skyfall.

[Donezo]

I expect a BAFTA double nomination honestly.

[Cesky]

I feel like Dench makes SO much sense, in many ways, but I still can't bring myself to predict her. I'm mostly troubled by the fact that she and her film currently have NO buzz, which makes me wary of predicting her. I'm also not sure if she'll get a BAFTA nomination; I almost think SAG is more likely for her. I think that Marigold Hotel may have been a bigger deal in the US than in the UK, and BAFTA has plenty of other British and European choices to go to.

I don't know about ever elusive buzz, but in BO Marigold made more money in the UK than US, and considering the population difference, I think it's safe to say it was bigger in the UK.

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

Jennifer Lawrence - BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globe, SAG. (+NYFCC)
Jessica Chastain - BFCA, Golden Globe, SAG.
Naomi Watts - BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globe, SAG.
Emmanuelle Riva - BAFTA, BFCA, SAG (+LAFCA, NSFC)
Judi Dench - BAFTA, Golden Globe, SAG.
Quvenzhane Wallis - BFCA, Golden Globe (+ Breakthrough Awards)
Marion Cotillard - BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globe.
Helen Mirren - Golden Globe.

Lawrence, Chastain and Watts look good. All three are in mainstream Oscar-bait films. Riva won't campaign, but she gives a towering undeniable performance, is going to get the critics' support, is in the most critically acclaimed film of the year, which also happens to be an Oscar contender in other categories, like Screenplay and Foreign Film. She's in. And she's no nobody. Riva is a legendary French actress and most Academy members (who are older than 55-60 years old) must have seen 'Hiroshima Mon Amour'.

No performance is undeniable, you should know that by now. I don't believe a lot of even the older Academy members have seen any films with Riva in them, although neither of us can prove our conflicting opinions one way or the other. Also, don't count your critic's awards until they've been given out, jeez. You can't automatically assume a performance is going to have huge critical awards support because the film and performance got stellar reviews.

[Moviefreak]

I feel like Dench makes SO much sense, in many ways, but I still can't bring myself to predict her. I'm mostly troubled by the fact that she and her film currently have NO buzz, which makes me wary of predicting her. I'm also not sure if she'll get a BAFTA nomination; I almost think SAG is more likely for her. I think that Marigold Hotel may have been a bigger deal in the US than in the UK, and BAFTA has plenty of other British and European choices to go to.

I kind of feel the same. I want to predict her, but I just can't bring myself to.

[erikdean]

"Dench Makes Sense" should be on he FYC.

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

I'm totally predicting a nod for Emayatzy at SAG which could lead to her being the Bichir of the year, or could be a sign that Wallis is ineligible, Riva is an unlikely get there and films like The Impossible and ZD30 have come out really late in the game.

Two black actresses nominated in the leading category is even less likely than two foreigners at this point, I think this has only happened once in 1972 with Diana Ross and Cicely Tyson. If she does get nominated at SAG it will likely be due to Wallis not being eligible; I doubt she'd get in for Oscar unless she replaces Wallis.

[guany]

Yes, I'm sure that when filling out their ballots Academy voters think to themselves "I can only nominate one Black woman."

[Moviefreak]

"Dench Makes Sense" should be on he FYC.

That would totally do the trick too.

[dlong5665]

Two black actresses nominated in the leading category is even less likely than two foreigners at this point, I think this has only happened once in 1972 with Diana Ross and Cicely Tyson. If she does get nominated at SAG it will likely be due to Wallis not being eligible; I doubt she'd get in for Oscar unless she replaces Wallis.

This is the stupidest fucking argument I've seen on this site. Just wow.