Best Actress: November, 6

[Mike Aiello]

At this point though, who would Wallis lose to? Keira Knightley? Marion Cotillard? Naomi Watts? She is in a better position than all of them, in my opinion. Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain (if her buzz continues and early word becomes certain) may be ahead because they are in contention for the win, but Wallis would probably come next. People are passionate about the film and about her performance. I don't see the same for the others, though I do admit Naomi Watts is inspiring more passion than I would have thought a couple months ago. I still don't know how "The Impossible" will go over with AMPAS...it seems like a clear also-ran for Best Picture, behind the juggernauts of "Les Mis", "Lincoln", and then "Argo" and "Silver Linings", etc.

[jjj]

Drama Globe nominees: Wallis/Watts/Knightley/Chastain/Mirren

Oh no French ladies, so then their studio has to put together a last-minute push for Streep. And it succeeds. Everybody wins, and by everybody I mean Meryl who decides not to even campaign very much and glides in on pure merit.

I wonder what ladies from last year would have won this year. Streep yes, Davis yes, Mara no, Williams I think not as Silver Linings is a more overall Oscar-friendly "comedy," Close...I'm not sure.

[dlong5665]

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

At this point though, who would Wallis lose to? Keira Knightley? Marion Cotillard? Naomi Watts? She is in a better position than all of them, in my opinion. Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain (if her buzz continues and early word becomes certain) may be ahead because they are in contention for the win, but Wallis would probably come next. People are passionate about the film and about her performance. I don't see the same for the others, though I do admit Naomi Watts is inspiring more passion than I would have thought a couple months ago. I still don't know how "The Impossible" will go over with AMPAS...it seems like a clear also-ran for Best Picture, behind the juggernauts of "Les Mis", "Lincoln", and then "Argo" and "Silver Linings", etc.

It's that Wallis performance seems so un golden globe like, if she misses there, she might only have a BFCA; Samantha Morton is the only actress to be nominated with only a BFCA nom.

[with_one_voice]

It's that Wallis performance seems so un golden globe like, if she misses there, she might only have a BFCA; Samantha Morton is the only actress to be nominated with only a BFCA nom.

Globes have nom'd people like Jennifer Lawrence -- even if you're in an indie but you break-out in a big way/have lots of Oscar buzz, they'll nominate you. Plus the Drama category isn't so packed that Wallis can't get in. Not a sure thing, but likely, I'd say. She's likelier than Riva (who is even less GG-friendly than Wallis) and Watts (Globes have repeatedly turned their nose to her), so the only remaining contenders are Chastain, Cotillard, Knightley, Lawrence (HG), Mirren. (Unsure about Mirren's category placement, but rumors are for Drama. Also not sure if they'll double-nom Lawrence, when they could squeeze in an extra person instead).

Also, BAFTA could well happen for Wallis. The British press is apparently loving her, and Beasts is doing really great at the British box office. BAFTA has nominated unknowns in American indies before, e.g. Sidibe, so she probably has a pretty good chance at BAFTA too.

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

Globes have nom'd people like Jennifer Lawrence -- even if you're in an indie but you break-out in a big way/have lots of Oscar buzz, they'll nominate you. Plus the Drama category isn't so packed that Wallis can't get in. Not a sure thing, but likely, I'd say. She's likelier than Riva (who is even less GG-friendly than Wallis) and Watts (Globes have repeatedly turned their nose to her), so the only remaining contenders are Chastain, Cotillard, Knightley, Lawrence (HG), Mirren. (Unsure about Mirren's category placement, but rumors are for Drama. Also not sure if they'll double-nom Lawrence, when they could squeeze in an extra person instead).

Also, BAFTA could well happen for Wallis. The British press is apparently loving her, and Beasts is doing really great at the British box office. BAFTA has nominated unknowns in American indies before, e.g. Sidibe, so she probably has a pretty good chance at BAFTA too.

Winter's Bone and Precious are far more accessible than Beasts of the Southern Wild which is a Malick inspired type film and the Globes haven't been that kind to Malick films.

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

Hey, guys, let's talk some more about how much REALNESS Chastain is bringing, instead of less fun subjects and/or ones I have agreed not to talk about.

[guany]

I don't understand why people are still predicting Helen Mirren.

Oscar Prospects: The Impossible

by R. Kurt Osenlund on Nov 28, 2012
The House next Door, Slant Magazine

There's also a burgeoning campaign to hoist Ewan McGregor into the Best Actor race,

http://www.slantmagazine.com/house/2...he-impossible/

It's extremely difficult to take this person's opinion seriously when he doesn't even know what category McGregor is competing in. Girl, bye!!!

[Atonenent.]

Winter's Bone and Precious are far more accessible than Beasts of the Southern Wild which is a Malick inspired type film and the Globes haven't been that kind to Malick films.

I disagree. Precious, maybe, but even that's a difficult film and it does have a specific style. Winter's Bone is bleak and not as emotional as Beasts, which is not nearly as inaccessible than a Malic film, in fact it doesn't even feel 'indie' since it's more diverse and stylish than most of them. The plot is not confused and there's no real artsy/off-putting stuff. Like, I could even see the Globes nodding it in Picture/Screenplay, but the field is too strong. Actress + hopefully Score it is.

[Atonenent.]

I don't understand why people are still predicting Helen Mirren.

I wish I could feel the same way, but she's the perfect lazy filler.

[Moviefreak]

I wish I could feel the same way, but she's the perfect lazy filler.

I agree. Like, I want to drop her, but her nomination makes so much sense to me. I think we have three undeniable's in this category: Lawrence, Chastain, Wallis. The last two spots are very fluid. I can see anyone of Cotillard, Mirren, Watts, Riva or even Dench taking them. I have to say though, Watts is certainly looking stronger right now, but I'm still hesitant until there's more word on her film. I wish they would have released it earlier.

[electric_storm]

And I dont know why people ar still predicting Cotillard. I love her but she's in a foreign film with no prospects in any other category and mediocre reviews. A nom would be a total anomaly. Mirren is pure filler bait.

[babz]

Wallis could be nominated for every single pre courser/Critic award and Howard will still not predict her.

He's like the stubborn, ignorant grandpa in the bunch. lol

[Moviefreak]

And I dont know why people ar still predicting Cotillard. I love her but she's in a foreign film with no prospects in any other category and mediocre reviews. A nom would be a total anomaly. Mirren is pure filler bait.

Javier Bardem in Biutiful? That film had a 58 on MC and he still got in against the odds and not having much precursor support. Rust & Bone currently has a 72 on MC. Those are not mediocre reviews, like at all.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Not to mention Bardem beat out Robert Duvall, who would have been a classic veteran filler nominee.

[McTeague]

Javier Bardem in Biutiful?

He also had won Cannes, which Cotillard couldn't even in a Riva-less field (but Moretti clearly stated Trintignant and Riva would have won if it was allowed to give more than one award to the palm winner). Also, I don't see Hollywood stars organizing screenings for R&B like say, Roberts did for Biutiful or like they're doing for, say, The Impossible.

[ReadyForMyCloseUp]

Nathaniel Rogers, who has seen most of the performances in contention, is predicting:
1. Jennifer Lawrence
2. Emmanuelle Riva
3. Jessica Chastain
4. Naomi Watts
5. Helen Mirren
6. Q. Wallis

I think that Helen Mirren will make it in, lest the category be too unconventional, but I don't see Q. Wallis missing, either...

Oh, and Marion Cotillard is in, like, forty-seventh place for Rust and Bone.

[Moviefreak]

He also had won Cannes, which Cotillard couldn't even in a Riva-less field (but Moretti clearly stated Trintignant and Riva would have won if it was allowed to give more than one award to the palm winner). Also, I don't see Hollywood stars organizing screenings for R&B like say, Roberts did for Biutiful or like they're doing for, say, The Impossible.

So what if he won Cannes? When did that ever really matter as far as Oscar chances go. Cotillard doesn't need Julia Roberts. She has SPC who is currently running a strong campaign for her. I'm not saying that she's a sure thing, but she's currently as likley as anyone not named Lawrence, Chastain or Wallis.

[McTeague]

So what if he won Cannes? When did that ever really matter as far as Oscar chances go. Cotillard doesn't need Julia Roberts. She has SPC who is currently running a strong campaign for her. I'm not saying that she's a sure thing, but she's currently as likley as anyone not named Lawrence, Chastain or Wallis.

LOL no, she's not as likely as actresses in English-spoken films with similar or better reviews. That doesn't make any sense.

[Moviefreak]

LOL no, she's not as likely as actresses in English-spoken films with similar or better reviews. That doesn't make any sense.

You're obviously talking about Naomi Watts, but we have a different take on her position in the race. Although, I am willing to admit that things are certainly looking much better for her now.

As for the foreign film issue, of course that will always be an uphill battle, but a foreign film starring a former Oscar winner with a strong studio will be seen.