Who's Winning This? (November Edition)

[Aaron Leggo]

Yeah, even when The Two Towers underperformed (missing Directing and Screenplay) it still got a BP nod in a field of five.

It's just strange to imagine 4-6 total BP nominations for the LOTR/Hobbit series. It seems a bit much, but we do have an expanded field. I don't know.

It is indeed odd to think that Peter Jackson's Middle Earth pics could go 4-for-4 in the Picture category so far, but I guess stranger shit has happened. It's such a tough one to call, really, because I'm not sure how much passion for this franchise has dissipated by now and we still don't know the critical response to The Hobbit yet. Critics and audiences alike went absolutely nuts over Fellowship and that passion carried quite robustly all the way through to Return of the King's clean sweep. I bet The Hobbit will still find lots of fans and garner good reviews, but that passionate support is a big question mark as of now.

That said, I can't see it missing a win in Makeup and nominations in several more categories, like Cinematography, Visual Effects, both Sounds, and maybe Production Design.

That's because the Argo ship has sailed.

Really? You think so? I still figure it's in a good spot, but I always feel like the racy is foggy (or at least misleading) at this time of year. That early frontrunner status (and specifically coming out of Toronto with big buzz) that guany mentioned has definitely bit many a movie in the ass, so it's clearly possible that Argo suffers a similar fate, but I can't see anything else winning other than Lincoln and I'm not ready to fully predict that one instead. I've never really believed in Les Mis for the top spot and can't think of much else that could catch on yet, but who knows.

Of course, we're still a couple weeks away from even the NBR. That won't probably help clear much (or any) of the fog, but it does remind me that the race has plenty of time to take a turn.

[McTeague]

If there's a movie that has had the frontrunner status all year that's been Lincoln and Les Miserables, not Argo. Like Aviator and Munich, like Memoirs of a Geisha and Cinderella Man, like Flags of Our Fathers & Iwo Jima, like There Will Be Blood and Sweeney Todd, like Milk and Benjamin Button, like Invictus and Nine, like True Grit, like War Horse and ELAIC.

Argo has always been the September semi-surprise (everybody expected it to be good but not an Oscar winner), that sometimes keeps its buzz to the end and wins (The King's Speech, Slumdog, Departed, American Beauty) and sometimes looses steam near the end (Up in the Air, Atonement, Sideways...). I think Argo is closer to the former group.

[Denzelfan]

I agree with McTeague, im suprised so many are confident in a DDL victory. I can see Jones winning a second Oscar, providing DiCaprio doesnt mess up in Django. I fully expect Phoenix to leave his mark in the critics awards, and I think Denzel has potential to aswell.

[filmy]

Since I'm fairly confident in Jones's and DDL's chances — Phoenix will be a non-factor in terms of any chance of winning the Oscar, I don't see what propels Washington ahead of DDL as Abraham Lincoln in a considerably more-liked film — and I think Lincoln in screenplay is the closest thing we may have to a lock in the major categories, I don't see how Lincoln is not currently the Best Picture frontrunner. What other films won a lead acting prize along with screenplay and lost BP? The Pianist, which probably narrowly lost and still got director?

[crazyfists3600]

Picture: Les Miserables
Director: Hooper/Les Miserables
Film Editing: Argo
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Original Screenplay: Amour
Lead Actor: Jackman
Lead Actress: Lawrence
Sup. Actor: Jones
Sup. Actress: Hathaway
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Cinematography: Les Miserables
Production Design: Les Miserables
Makeup: Lincoln
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Sound Editing: The Impossible
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Original Score: Life of Pi
Original Song: Les Miserables

[Atonenent.]

Okay, Amour winning Screenplay is something I can totally see. It would have another major nod in Riva plus a Foreign Language win.

[McTeague]

Since I'm fairly confident in Jones's and DDL's chances — Phoenix will be a non-factor in terms of any chance of winning the Oscar, I don't see what propels Washington ahead of DDL as Abraham Lincoln in a considerably more-liked film — and I think Lincoln in screenplay is the closest thing we may have to a lock in the major categories, I don't see how Lincoln is not currently the Best Picture frontrunner. What other films won a lead acting prize along with screenplay and lost BP? The Pianist, which probably narrowly lost and still got director?

It’s great that you have the whole race in all categories all figured up and locked already in November, but it simply is not. There are 3-4 strong contenders yet to be seen in Jones category, plus he could start loosing things left and right to already seen contenders (BAFTA could go with McGregor or Henry if Beasts is there, BFCA could go with Hoffmann like all critics will probably do, SAG could go with unrewarded Arkin…). DDL doesn’t have a single precursor guaranteed (Washington is SAG-less, Globes don’t love DDL, BAFTA could go Les Mis). And if Argo wins Best picture, it could still win script. And that’s only speaking of contenders that have already been seen.

And also, Milk.

[steve4922]

I agree with McTeague, im suprised so many are confident in a DDL victory.

An English actor (whom many regard as one of the finest actors in world) plays Abraham Lincoln to great acclaim in a film that has some of the best reviews of the year. Has there ever been a baitier role (or picture, for that matter)? And the performance is absolutely dazzling.

[filmy]

It’s great that you have the whole race in all categories all figured up and locked already in November, but it simply is not. There are 3-4 strong contenders yet to be seen in Jones category, plus he could start loosing things left and right to already seen contenders (BAFTA could go with McGregor or Henry if Beasts is there, BFCA could go with Hoffmann like all critics will probably do, SAG could go with unrewarded Arkin…). DDL doesn’t have a single precursor guaranteed (Washington is SAG-less, Globes don’t love DDL, BAFTA could go Les Mis). And if Argo wins Best picture, it could still win script. And that’s only speaking of contenders that have already been seen.

And also, Milk.

Oh, Milk is a good one. I don't think things are locked up (except maybe Lincoln in screenplay...Argo is totally not happening there, if there is any random underdog it's Silver Linings, but ... no), but I'm just playing out how I think the winners will go — and DDL/Jones are widely predicted here — so I'm questioning those who pick those two but still don't have it for BP/BD.

[Donezo]

Since I'm fairly confident in Jones's and DDL's chances — Phoenix will be a non-factor in terms of any chance of winning the Oscar, I don't see what propels Washington ahead of DDL as Abraham Lincoln in a considerably more-liked film — and I think Lincoln in screenplay is the closest thing we may have to a lock in the major categories, I don't see how Lincoln is not currently the Best Picture frontrunner. What other films won a lead acting prize along with screenplay and lost BP? The Pianist, which probably narrowly lost and still got director?

This is exactly my line of thinking right now. If it's the front runner for Actor, Supporting Actor, AND Adapted Screenplay...........wouldn't it be weird for it to lose Best Picture?

[McTeague]

Ok then, but there are many examples, and all of them are talky, clever pictures that still had more respect than AMPAS' sentimental passion: Darling, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf, Network (two lead acting awards, + one supporting, + script), Guess Who's Coming To Dinner, The Lion in Winter, Coming Home, On Golden Pond, Tender Mercies, Places in the Heart, Moonstruck, Howard's End, The Piano or Fargo.

[with_one_voice]

Ok then, but there are many examples, and all of them are talky, clever pictures that still had more respect than AMPAS' sentimental passion: Darling, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf, Network (two lead acting awards, + one supporting, + script), Guess Who's Coming To Dinner, The Lion in Winter, Coming Home, On Golden Pond, Tender Mercies, Places in the Heart, Moonstruck, Howard's End, The Piano or Fargo.

You need to see the film or read the screenplay or something to fully understand why people are saying Lincoln has screenplay nearly locked up. Argo's screenplay is so lackluster by comparison. Not that my personal opinions have any bearing on awards, but having seen both films, Lincoln IS the screenplay -- extremely thoughtful, witty, and often-poetic dialogue. The entire film is politicians talking about important historical events and documents in snappy language, scheming against each other, making bold declarations in front of Congress. Lincoln launches into several incredibly poignant, often humorous monologues. Things like that. Honestly, Argo just doesn't compare at all.

[McTeague]

You need to see the film or read the screenplay or something to fully understand why people are saying Lincoln has screenplay nearly locked up. Argo's screenplay is so lackluster by comparison. Not that my personal opinions have any bearing on awards, but having seen both films, Lincoln IS the screenplay -- extremely thoughtful, witty, and often-poetic dialogue. The entire film is politicians talking about important historical events and documents in snappy language, scheming against each other, making bold declarations in front of Congress. Lincoln launches into several incredibly poignant, often humorous monologues. Things like that. Honestly, Argo just doesn't compare at all.

All the examples I posted are screenplay winners? I was already assuming a scenario in which Lincoln wins script. I mean that, even if you assume Lincoln has script + lead actor locked (and the later I don't think it has), there are many, many examples of movies winning that and more and still loosing Best Picture. Politicians making speeches and also catty, witty remarks and monologues? The Lion in Winter! (third Oscar for a lead actor too, to boot).

[Moviefreak]

McTeague, you've been trying all season and I'm sure you'll be fighting this until it becomes inevitable. There are arguments that can be made against Lincoln winning, but lack of passion isn't one of them.

[McTeague]

We'll see!

[Souler]

Looks like Lincoln has a good chance to become McTeague's new Christian Bale.

[McTeague]

Looks like Lincoln has a good chance to become McTeague's new Christian Bale.

Or Streep. I just hope I wake up earlier if I need to. But I won't need to. More like, this is McTeague's new "there's no way Hazanavicious doesn't win best director". When you all were wishful thinking that Scorsese would win #2.

[crazyfists3600]

Looks like Lincoln has a good chance to become McTeague's new Christian Bale.

Except Christian Bale won the Oscar...and Lincoln won't (Best Picture, that is)

[guany]

McTeague's just upset that DDL and TLJ are snatching Jackman and Crowe's wigs.

[Moviefreak]

McTeague's just upset that DDL and TLJ are snatching Jackman and Crowe's wigs.

That's why he's been lashing out at poor Sally lately. He's gotta hang on to the one top tier Oscar Les Mis still has.