Amy Adams – The Master
Samantha Barks – Les Misérables
Pauline Collins – Quartet
Judi Dench – Skyfall
Jennifer Ehle – Zero Dark Thirty
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy
Frances McDormand – Promised Land
Amanda Seyfried – Les Misérables
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Kerry Washington – Django Unchained
Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
Go ZOOP yourself: http://zooplife.wordpress.com/
After thinking about this category, I believe Hathaway and Field are the two frontrunners. I'd put my money on Hathaway winning over Field, however, I (obviously) say that without having seen Les Mis or knowing how the critics will respond to it. If it completely fails, I'd give (the previously undefeated) Sally Field the win, but as I said, my money is on Hathaway right now.
1. Anne Hathaway
2. Sally Field
3. Helen Hunt
4. Maggie Smith
5. Amanda Seyfried
#s 1-3 I'm almost positive about, #s 4-5 are wishful thinking.
It's really funny how thanks to Lincoln, Spielberg, DDL and Field are gonna win third Oscars, and TLJ a second.
Gurls, not even in your wildest dreams.
If Field didn't have two Oscars, she would be taking this one. She is the frontrunner this year for her first HABSYtm.
FYC Oscar consideration, Miss Sally Field, as Mary Todd Lincoln
Well, guess I was correct about Paramount giving Kelly Reilly a campaign. She's being wheeled out on American TV now to give interviews on Flight. She was on CNN yesterday with a big headline across the screen saying "ACTRESS PORTRAYS DRUG ADDICT".
Maybe. If Django isn't big.
I don't know, I think it's too soon to make a final calling in any of the categories it's a frontrunner. I'm pretty sure Field won't win a third Oscar for this. I also think Argo will win Adapted Screenplay regardless who wins BP: if it wins, as part of the few things it can win, and if it doesn't win as the consolation prize. That leaves me with Picture, Director, Actor and Sup. Actor. I know you think I'm trying hard, but I genuinely think none of those 100s in Metacritic sounds like a "this is the best of the year", save maybe Mick LaSalle's (I mean, Scott or O'Hehir have like, nine 100s this year so far, and they've been way more ecstatic elsewhere). I also keep hearing the "boring" complaint, and that's about the last thing you can be with AMPAS, long with brainy and emotionally detached. I can't think of a single recent winner that people have called boring so many times. So I'm not predicting it for Picture/Director (at least not yet). That leaves DDL and Jones, and although I'm more convinced/fearful each day that The Overactor can win a third, in the end I still, deep down, someone else will. So, in order of how likely I think its big wins are...
4- Picture & Director
Right now, I can't see anything beating DDL and Tony Kushner. Picture/Director can still go to Les Mis, and Jones could lose to DiCaprio, but Lincoln is all but guaranteed Actor and Adapted Screenplay.
I think Lincoln can go as far as Picture/Director/Screenplay/Actor/Supporting Actor/techs or go home completely empty-handed. I think BP at the moment is Les Miz vs Lincoln vs Argo and if it's Les Miz, Jackman will probably win as well. In that case, Screenplay could also happen. But I don't know.
Supporting Actor is the only one that isn't directly influenced by Picture, IMO, and as I don't see Hoffman winning again, it's Jones as the frontrunner with DiCaprio as a big threat if the film is a success. I definitely don't think 5 major awards are happening, though, and Screenplay is far from locked.
I know I've got a big ego, I really don't know why it's such a big deal, though.
I know that logic should tell me that Field will not take home a 3rd Oscar this year. But....these things happen! Like out of the blue, little Sally ties Meryl's win record without all the hoopla! You are probably right, McT. There is no way Sally is winning this but it would be kind of cool and she is not even one of my favorites. There is a back story here this year. She had to beg Spielberg to reconsider her for the role once Neeson stepped out of Lincoln. So ....if she gets on the promotional circuit, she's got a story that is inspiring to a lot of the older AMPAS members. I think this is a year in which anything can happen if there are no out and out critics awards darlings.
I honestly think Lincoln could get a shitload of nominations and walk away completely empty handed. The backlash the film is getting on it's IMDB board is ugly to say the least. People are saying it's boring or feels like a television movie and whatnot. It feels like a case where these criticisms can start picking up traction as the season moves on, and it's chances of winning anything decrease. It sounds like one of those film you have to nominate out of respect, but don't neccesarily have to give anything to.
This is more BP talk, but… I don’t really know which of the blurbs for the 100s in Metacritic sounds LESS like an Oscar winner:
“Spielberg has never made a more sophisticated and less sentimental picture.”
“highly rewarding and instructive.”
Something about how great Sally Field is
“more interesting than Americana. It is smaller and quieter than that.”
Some fangirl talk about DDL
Another panty-wetting about DDL.
“Boredom and confusion are also part of democracy, after all. Lincoln is a rough and noble democratic masterpiece.” (LOL, so, boring)
“Rarely has a film attended more carefully to the details of politics.”
“Defiantly intellectual, complex and true to the shifting winds of real-world governance.”
And the only one that somewhat sounds like it (somewhat):
“The movie is grand and immersive. It plugs us into the final months of Lincoln's presidency with a purity that makes us feel transported as though by time machine.”
I honestly agree with homespun, it feels like it’s so much more respected than beloved… even by the 100’s…
Well, I'm really talking about above-the-line wins. Maybe it'll win something for Costume Design or make-up, if Les Miz is feeling generous.
But it's pretty easy to see it losing in all the above-the-line categories. It's a tough year.
Screenplay is Argo's (or SLP's) consolation prize if Lincoln or Les Miz wins, and one of its few possible wins if it wins BP. Argo is the one that's not going home emoty handed. Audiences like it more, reception is more ecstatic, it's much more an Oscar movie.
Well if Lincoln goes 1 for 12 or something, it's still a better showing than The Color Purple. I'm only predicting it in the major categories for Screenplay, for now.
Ang Lee - The only 2x Bafta/DGA/Oscar-Winning Director!
Meryl on Oscars: Y’see these little babies? These are my best f***ing friends
and they never let me down. Try to get ‘em away from me and I’ll eat you alive.