Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Anthony Hopkins – Hitchcock
Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Denzel Washington – Flight
Other
I don't know how much the lack of BO success hurts him. I'm pretty sure voters will pop up the DVD screener. It's a type of movie AMPAS voters love, the dramedy with great actors and great script and great reviews. And if they see it, vet with polio >>> pretty young boy.Originally Posted by Donezo
I go back and forth, really, but lately I think that if they watch both, Hawkes will edge Cooper out. Or, both will edge Jackman out. Or Phoenix.
You gone mad?
He's gone sane.
I can see a situation where the only above the line nods for Les Miz are Picture and Anne Hathaway. That's what will probably happen if the reception is in Evita/Dreamgirls territory.
Great. Now who's going to watch Sunday Rose on SAG night??
Sure...but I doubt that'll be the reception.
I doubt "Evita" level reception. Maybe "Dreamgirls". Even if it's a bit better than that, this year is tougher than 06.
Yeah, I agree but I'd add Barks (like Murphy + Hudson) because the category is barren, it needs a newbie, and she has a great role.
The best thing is that, even in that case, it will receive at least 8 nominations, lol.
LOL, it's tougher for everyone else BECAUSE of Les Mis
Seriously, 2006 was a wasteland, sure, but what projects are SO TOUGH that a beloved musical brought together at peak time in the season with a marvelous cast and an Oscar winning director can't net a slew of nominations/wins?
I think we've seen enough to know that this won't be a Nine/Phantom-esque fiasco, but I don't think it's outlandish to suggest that reception will be good but not great. Director/Actor/Supporting Actor/Adapted Screenplay are so crowded that Les Miz could miss all of them if the passion isn't there. It will get in the tech categories no matter what.
Great. Now who's going to watch Sunday Rose on SAG night??
I simply don't know how to predict the critics' reaction to this. At this point, where backlash for Les Miz happened so long ago (mid-late 90's), I don't know what's more snob, to still dislike it or to revise opinion and celebrate it. I kind of agree with you that NY critics should still play "above it", but considering how much critics are gushing as of late about the most sentimental things, it would feel hypocritical that they quibbled about something genuinely moving like Les Miz. I'm a bit lost, some days I think the movie has a target on its own back too big for critics to ignore it (think ELAIC) and sometimes I think it instead should do well if it's good.
In short, yeah, it's not outlandish to think this can get a good-not-great consensus. I expect something in the low 80's, but when I'm less confident I think 70's and when I'm confident I think high 80's. I really don't think it will reach the 90's at all. I can't think of a single Broadway-to-Hollywood musical that would anyways, for critics are snobs like that.
For the time being, I'm actually leaving Jackman out of my top five (at no. 6). The acclaim for SLP is so overwhelming and the film has proven to be such a crowd-pleaser that I'm beginning to question the rationale behind leaving out Cooper. He has a ton of acclaim, and his rapport with Lawrence is arguably what makes the film work.
In deciding between Hawkes and Jackman for the final spot, I'm sticking with Hakwes for now. Hawkes is SUCH a SAG/actorly choice, that I don't think the actors' branch will deny him, especially for such a baity role. While the film's box office leaves much to be desired, I don't think voters will be hesitant to pop in the screener; Helen Hunt (acclaim, nudity, fame) may even be a draw for some to watch this, not sure. Anyway, FoxSearchlight has hit the ground running and has already sent out screeners of The Sessions (in October, I believe). We've all seen the advantages that sending out early screeners can have. That, combined with Hawkes' adoration from actors specifically (as evidenced by his missing every major precursor save SAG in 2010-11), leads me to believe he'll make it in for SAG and then Oscar.
So, I'm leaving off Jackman, not because I think Les Mis will be poorly received or because I think his part may be modified too much and become less baity, but simply because we really don't know yet what Les Mis will be, and this category is not lacking in strong contenders. I realize that the orthodoxy on AD is for Les Mis to be a masterpiece and land 4+ acting nominations, but I think we're getting away from ourselves a bit. Even if the film is highly acclaimed, as I expect, acting categories can only have five nominees, and I don't think it's implausible that, despite immense acclaim, Jackman fails to make it. It's not uncommon to see acclaimed performances in very strong (top 2/3) Best Picture frontrunners ultimately be ignored, perhaps inexplicably. At this time last year, Shailene Woodley was considered a near-lock. Then she missed SAG. Perennial nominee Cate Blanchett missed out in a crowded year for staring alongside two other acting nominees in the BP runner-up (Benjamin Button). I realize that such an argument could be applied to someone like Cooper, and I don't disagree, but I think it's plausible - contrary to many here who can't fathom a Jackman snub - that Les Mis is both highly acclaimed and that Jackman is not nominated; especially if that acclaim is more Dreamgirls/less Chicago, which, again, is certainly possible. Especially when I hear how the supporting (female) characters in Les Mis would be the first to benefit, I don't think a Jackman miss is all that inconceivable, especially in such a category packed with contenders who seem to have more pros than cons. Also, if Jackman were to be nominated, I don't necessarily think it would be at the expense of Cooper or Hawkes, but perhaps Phoenix.
I'm not budging from my Day-Lewis/Hawkes/Jackman/Phoenix/Washington prediction until I see some actual traction for Cooper outside of good reviews.
I wasn't aware that FSL had already sent out screeners for The Sessions. Nice to know. That definitely bodes well for Hawkes chances
I think that beyond merely good reviews for Cooper, there is a smaller but increasingly vocal contingent that says he is just as good as Lawrence if not better, which should translate to no.1 votes. That and The Sessions is starting to feel increasingly Kinsey-ish to me, though the early screeners could help prevent that.
YOU'RE STARTING TO FEEL KINSEY-ISH TO ME!!
Also, I totally backtracked on what we talked about last night re: Supporting Actor. I put Henry back in lol.
That's an odd comparison, if I recall Evita received very mixed reviews while Dreamgirls received very good notices; it would have made better sense had you mentioned Evita with Nine or Phantom of the Opera.
Without taking Jackman out of my predix yet, but instead thinking the last spot is between Hawkes and Cooper, not between Hawkes and Jackman, and with special emphasis in that last line of yours that I bolded, I agree with all of this.
SLP is currently at 83 in Metacritic. Let's imagine it stays there (it won't go crazily up or down), which is not overwhelming acclaim but it's oscar-level acclaim. And let's imagine Les Mis gets one MC point more or one less. Why would AMPAS go with the younger, newer guy in a comedic light role over the guy who's been paying Hollywood and Broadway dues for years in a dramatic role? I guess the question is if Jackman will be Gere or if Cooper will be Giamatti. But unlike Gere, Jackman's role is truly lead (and THE only lead in the story) and dramatic. Although Cooper, meanwhile, is better known than Giamatti.
I don't think Cooper or Jackman are going to win any critics awards, so that won't put them in the map, nor give one the edge over the other, etc. We'll reach the televised stage having heard a lot about Phoenix, Washington and DDL, and perhaps a little about Hawkes, but nothing about Jackman or Cooper. Then the televised awards will come, NBR will nominate the six and DDL or Washington will win, so whatevr. Jackman will get the Globe over Cooper. And then, at SAG, three things may happen: Jackman misses because Les Miz came too late and not all voters saw it; Cooper misses because his film is too light; OR, Phoenix misses because The Master is a really unpopular movie and Phoenix is doing everything to be an unpopular actor among his peers. I guess it could be Hawkes the one to miss, too, but as you say, he's such a textbook example of a SAG nominee...
I honestly don't think it's 1 spot for two remaining contenders, but three spots for 4 contenders. I think all have precedents of missing. Phoenix could be the one if critics don't rally behind him enough and instead go Trintignant, DDL or Washington (which is hardly difficult considering the praise for them and their films). The he could be our Fassbender. Fassbender is a good example of someone who can miss despite glowing reviews and actorly performance because of the offputting nature of film. Yeah Phoenix's film has better reviews and it's not about sex, but he's also nowhere near as popular in the industry as Fassbender was last year, so this for that.
That and also box office. Of those only Dreamgirls made 100M, the rest far below that. I do think that Les Mis's box office will play some part in its awards success but I'm predicting it to end up just shy of 100M.
Really? I think Les Mis should easily surpass Dreamgirls.
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