Best Actress: November, 4

[Donezo]

I think those not considering Cotillard are in for a rude awakening when she shows up at every precursor. Riva can be satisfied with her NSFC win.

[coldmess]

I think those not considering Cotillard are in for a rude awakening when she shows up at every precursor. Riva can be satisfied with her NSFC win.

Tilda Swinton has something to say about this

[Donezo]

I'm not saying she's a slam dunk for an Oscar nod, but saying she's not even in the running is pretty silly. Even still, I think she's in.

[Moviefreak]

Tilda Swinton has something to say about this

Do not compare Rust & Bone to We Need To Talk About Kevin. Other than being in a foreign language, Rust & Bone is actually a very Academy-friendly film and Marion Cotillard is no Tilda Swinton as far as industry standing goes.

[Stéphane]

Oh My God.

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

^ How is what you said about Watts not applicable to Wallis? Not to mention that Walis has the superior reviews, is the true lead of her film plus her film is likelier to hit with Oscar. Putting her any lower than number 3, at the expense of Watts even, is just bad prognosticating at this point.

So Wallis is likelier to be nominated because she's likelier to be nominated? That's circular logic, man. I don't care much about superior reviews, though, and I don't think it matters because Wallis's age alone knocks her down several places in probability. It doesn't disqualify her, but it's a serious hurdle. Having seen Beasts, I believe everyone here is overestimating its Oscar chances, and it may only end up with a Screenplay nomination, or nothing at all. Incredible, amazing reviews can mean Oscar nominations, or they can mean jack shit. I know the smart money right now seems to be on Wallis and Beasts, but I don't like just copying the consensus for my predictions.

[coldmess]

Do not compare Rust & Bone to We Need To Talk About Kevin. Other than being in a foreign language, Rust & Bone is actually a very Academy-friendly film and Marion Cotillard is no Tilda Swinton as far as industry standing goes.

I've seen Rust and Bone, and I doubt Academy members will sit through it. And that's even if they start to watch it in the first place.

[Stéphane]

...oh and Maggie Smith, Mary Elizabeth Winstead and Rachael Weisz are all higher than Knightley, even though none of them have any chance whatsoever...oh and probably Elle Fanning too

[francesco-natale]

GG Drama
Chastain (winner)
Knightley
Mirren
Wallis
Watts
Alt : Cotillard

GG Comedy/Musical
Dench
Lawrence (winner)
Smith
Streep
Streisand
Alt : Seyfried

SAG
Cotillard
Chastain (winner)
Lawrence
Mirren
Watts
Alt : Riva/Cotillard

BAFTA
Dench
Mirren
Riva (winner)
Smith
Wallis
Alt : Cotillard/Knightley

AMPAS
Chastain
Lawrence (winner)
Mirren
Wallis
Watts
Alt : Riva/Cotillard

[OscarsFan 2.3]

Do not compare Rust & Bone to We Need To Talk About Kevin. Other than being in a foreign language, Rust & Bone is actually a very Academy-friendly film and Marion Cotillard is no Tilda Swinton as far as industry standing goes.

[OscarsFan 2.3]

I've seen Rust and Bone, and I doubt Academy members will sit through it. And that's even if they start to watch it in the first place.

How's the weather in fantasy land? She's playing an amputee who has trouble keeping her shirt on for two thirds of the film. Look at several of the Actress winners of the last decade and tell me the more elderly members aren't thinking with the other head.

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

GG Drama
Chastain (winner)
Knightley
Mirren
Wallis
Watts
Alt : Cotillard

GG Comedy/Musical
Dench
Lawrence (winner)
Smith
Streep
Streisand
Alt : Seyfried

SAG
Chastain (winner)
Lawrence
Mirren
Wallis
Watts
Alt : Riva/Cotillard

BAFTA
Dench
Mirren
Riva (winner)
Smith
Wallis
Alt : Cotillard/Knightley

AMPAS
Chastain
Lawrence (winner)
Mirren
Wallis
Watts
Alt : Riva/Cotillard

Wallis is not eligible for SAG, the studio did not submit the necessary paperwork.

[electric_storm]

So Kris Tapley thinks Chastain is poised to come along and upset the apple cart. Of course he does, seeing as he hated SLP and didn't care for Lawrence in it. But regardless, we're probably looking at a terrific two way race between two of the most exciting new actresses around in highly opposed roles, what could be better? As a JLaw stan I know I'll at least get to see her give a GG speech, and hey, she could even win next year for "Serena" if she loses, due at 22!

[guany]

If Lawrence loses this year as well as next year, she'll totally be the new Winslet.

[camille]

Riva will be a 'critics only' performance. I just can't picture her on the red carpet for the televised awards...

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

Hahaha, Kris Tapley is kind of ridiculous about SLP, there's no way he's being unbiased there.

[babz]

So Wallis is likelier to be nominated because she's likelier to be nominated? That's circular logic, man. I don't care much about superior reviews, though, and I don't think it matters because Wallis's age alone knocks her down several places in probability. It doesn't disqualify her, but it's a serious hurdle. Having seen Beasts, I believe everyone here is overestimating its Oscar chances, and it may only end up with a Screenplay nomination, or nothing at all. Incredible, amazing reviews can mean Oscar nominations, or they can mean jack shit. I know the smart money right now seems to be on Wallis and Beasts, but I don't like just copying the consensus for my predictions.

You never had her as a contender even when Wallis was a clear frontrunner in the summer according to all pundits, i can't take your opinion seriously about this film or actress chances. lol

[coldmess]

How's the weather in fantasy land? She's playing an amputee who has trouble keeping her shirt on for two thirds of the film. Look at several of the Actress winners of the last decade and tell me the more elderly members aren't thinking with the other head.

Yes Cotillard looks, and acts, great in the film, but I can't picture AMPAS sitting through a film about 2 unlikable characters and the unlikable things they do. There's a lot of sex, brutal violence, and the performances aren't as showy as AMPAS usually goes for.

[francesco-natale]

Wallis is not eligible for SAG, the studio did not submit the necessary paperwork.

I knew that, I had forgotten ...

I have seen The Impossible this afternoon .. I love Watts but I can't believe she would be nominated for being scared and dirty ... this is a thousand miles away from her performances in Mulholand Drive, 21 Grams, King-Kong or The Painted Veil. Solid and even good but nothing special to me (and, in her first scenes, she is too much "actress" for the part. She seems so "tragic" when she speaks to go back home for work, for exemple.) Of course, she's great when she is crying ... but, really ? For this performance ?

And I find her overshowed by the boy who plays her eldest son.

[faina]

Didn't they used to have that children's Oscar back in the day? Why did they drop it? I think there are so many child performances these days they could make this category very competitive and interesting. Something along the lines of "Best Newcomer" and such.