Best Actress: November, 4

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

She has a better shot than Judi Dench, so......

But I still think Marion Cotillard makes it if one of the French gals does. She's everywhere and people love her. She'll get the votes.

I think both will make it, Cotillard has the campaign and Riva will have the critics support along with SPC backing; Tapley also removed Mirren from his latest predictions (and he's seen her film) so now he has the two frenchies!

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

Chastain
Cotillard
Lawrence
Mirren
Wallis

Alphabetical, not ranked.

At this stage, I'd have Watts instead of Wallis, but Watts needs a really robust campaign and strong reaction from the Academy. But I basically think your predicted five plus Watts are the only ones with a real shot at a nod.

[Habsburg]

Lawrence
Wallis
Chastain
Watts
Knightley

Riva

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

I was on the Knightley train for quite a while, but trust me, it's a dud. From the way some critics have panned it, I'm pretty sure AK is a terrific, risky movie of exactly the type that fails to get any major Oscar nominations (betting it's confined to Production Design and Costume Design). I thought it would get more supporters as more critics saw it, but it's still really divisive.

[DirkDiggler]

I was on the Knightley train for quite a while, but trust me, it's a dud. From the way some critics have panned it, I'm pretty sure AK is a terrific, risky movie of exactly the type that fails to get any major Oscar nominations (betting it's confined to Production Design and Costume Design). I thought it would get more supporters as more critics saw it, but it's still really divisive.

It has only one red review on Metacritic (which was literally JUST added). I would hardly say the film was panned at all.

[with_one_voice]

It has only one red review on Metacritic (which was literally JUST added). I would hardly say the film was panned at all.

Now that a significant portion of American critics have weighed in and the overall reception of AK has hardly changed at all, what is your rationale for continuing to predict Knightley?

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

I tend not to want to argue about films with people that have signatures of those films.

[dlong5665]

Now that a significant portion of American critics have weighed in and the overall reception of AK has hardly changed at all, what is your rationale for continuing to predict Knightley?

Cuz shhe da bestz actroress eva duhhz.

[babz]

Now that a significant portion of American critics have weighed in and the overall reception of AK has hardly changed at all, what is your rationale for continuing to predict Knightley?

i would say they have no rationale.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

The Knightley train has been derailed for a while. Were the critics holding off until now really going to be numerous or strongly behind it enough to resurrect Anna Karenina? No.

Sight unseen, it feels like the kind of thing that will age well, but for now it's chances are dead and buried. I feel behind the ball still listing Law in my most recent top 15 contenders for Supporting Actor. He's done too.

[electric_storm]

1. Jennifer Lawrence
2. Quevenzhane Wallis
3. Emmanuelle Riva
4. Helen Mirren
5. Jessica Chastain

6. Marion Cotillard
7. Keira Knightley
8. Naomi Watts
9. Judi Dench
10.Lol?

[electric_storm]

SLP is up to 84 on metacritic btw, so I guess Lawrence is back in the hunt for critics awards?

[DirkDiggler]

Now that a significant portion of American critics have weighed in and the overall reception of AK has hardly changed at all, what is your rationale for continuing to predict Knightley?

-------
Pretty much exactly what siowafc said in the AK thread:

I think this film will have that minimal amount of passion that will be necessary to bring Keira to the Oscars. I mean, there really aren't that many great projects in the Actress race this year and this one at least has ambition, which will win it some fans.

[dlong5665]

SLP is up to 84 on metacritic btw, so I guess Lawrence is back in the hunt for critics awards?

Lol, I know right? Lawrence was gonna win a bunch regardless of how reviews were. Her frontrunner status guranteed her wins at like North Western Ohio Online Film Critics Circle or whatever. She'll take NYCC, possibly NBR, and she has a slight chance at LAFCA (she was runner up in 2010, but I'm not betting on it).

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

Lol, I know right? Lawrence was gonna win a bunch regardless of how reviews were. Her frontrunner status guranteed her wins at like North Western Ohio Online Film Critics Circle or whatever. She'll take NYCC, possibly NBR, and she has a slight chance at LAFCA (she was runner up in 2010, but I'm not betting on it).

I guess some of us overeacted with SLP early score; I still think one of the Frenchies will win LAFCA.

[dlong5665]

I guess some of us overeacted with SLP early score; I still think one of the Frenchies will win LAFCA.

Oh yeah, I do too. I think it'll be Riva but it could be the chick from Pieta. I just wouldn't fully count out Lawrence for LAFCA is all.

[with_one_voice]

-------
Pretty much exactly what siowafc said in the AK thread:

That could be applied to any contender. A "minimal amount of passion"? Sure, Keira will have that, among a small faction of AK zealots in the Academy. Basically, that indicates that she'll receive at least some votes. In making an argument for why she'll be among the top-five vote-getters, you need to more persuasively explain how/why she'll receive more votes than her competitors. Like, I'm sure Meryl Streep will receive a "minimal amount of passion" -- doesn't mean that's enough to get her nominated. A slew of actresses will have at least a "minimal amount of passion". That's not an explanation of what situates Knightley in the top five.

[electric_storm]

Oh yeah, I do too. I think it'll be Riva but it could be the chick from Pieta. I just wouldn't fully count out Lawrence for LAFCA is all.

I think she'll be their RU again sadly, can't see Riva losing that one. She'll probably do a Portman and win all the 2nd and 3rd tier ones and start dominating the biggies at BFCA.

[Moviefreak]

SLP is up to 84 on metacritic btw, so I guess Lawrence is back in the hunt for critics awards?

Yeah, I knew that was an overreaction.

[dlong5665]

I think she'll be their RU again sadly, can't see Riva losing that one. She'll probably do a Portman and win all the 2nd and 3rd tier ones and start dominating the biggies at BFCA.

Or sweep EVERYTHING!!

I doubt that, though. She'll probably Portman, but without getting pregnant, having insane fans, and actually delivering a worthy performance.