Best Actor: November (2)

[ganonlink1991]

Well, that's the thing. If you've seen the show, you realize why Jackman's performance will be essential for the film to succeed. That's why I don't see the movie being an Oscar hit and Jackman being snubbed.

The Giamatti example is interesting. It shows that weird snubs can occur in super-packed races. I think it's what makes John Hawkes, Joaquin Phoenix and Bradley Cooper vulnerable. That's why Les Miz remains the big question mark to me. If it's a hit, I see Jackman taking easily one of the spots.

The year Giamatti got snubbed was not packed at all, the race was done, his snub was a weird thing, Clint wasn't in anybody's radar, he got ZERO precursors. It was a major left field nom

[MrJeffery]

1. DDL
2. Washington
3. Phoenix
4. Cooper
5. Jackman

6. Hawkes
7. Hopkins
8. Gere
9. Trintignant
10. Damon

This is pretty spot-on right now, I think.

[homespun]

Glenn Kenny and Jeff Wells podcast on the Best Actor race. Summarising;

Kenny thinks Day-Lewis is a lock for the nomination, but not the win. Feels DDL doesn't dominate his cast convincingly enough, and is overshadowed at times. Quite bullish on Denzel's chances, and thinks no other actor this year has carried a film as strongly (rates him over DDL). Thinks Phoenix is locked for a nom, but probably won't win. Doesn't think The Sessions is sticking enough as a movie, and really doubts Hawkes chances of getting in right now.

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/i...y/kennytwo.mp3

[Mike Aiello]

The year Giamatti got snubbed was not packed at all, the race was done, his snub was a weird thing, Clint wasn't in anybody's radar, he got ZERO precursors. It was a major left field nom

The race was done? I don't know that that was true. Neeson, Bardem, and Giamatti were all fighting for that last spot, and I don't necessarily think Cheadle or Depp were 100% safe either.

[electric_storm]

I don't think Giamatti was considered to be in the 5th spot though. People were pointing to Depp and wondering about Bardem. The actual outcome was very surprising.

[James]

The year Giamatti got snubbed was not packed at all, the race was done, his snub was a weird thing, Clint wasn't in anybody's radar, he got ZERO precursors. It was a major left field nom

Hmmm. The lineup that was the safe prediction line-up that year was Cheadle, Depp, Giamatti, DiCaprio and Foxx. It was actually a fairly common prediction among the forms that Eastwood would get in, but most people took out Cheadle. I personally thought Depp would be the odd man out. Neeson barely factored into the conversation despite a Golden Globe nomination.

The situation that Kinsey was in is very well a situation that Hitchcock could find itself in at the end of the year. Mirren (like Linney) could find themselves getting more awards attention than their male counterpart based on the situation of the category.

[guany]

Seriously...what?

Anyways, I hate that this year we have to pretend like Bradley Cooper is a talented actor.

I'm not pretending. He's great in SLP and deserves his nod.

If we imagine for a moment that this is an original story being told on film, would anyone feel THAT confident about Jackman given the nature of the film, the competition, what we've seen of the trailers etc... ? Of course not. He'd be in serious contention for sure, but nothing more. It's all predicated on this "OMG but he's playing Valjean!" hype from people who know and love the musical, but we have no idea how well that character comes across in this particular rendering, or how dominant a force Jackman is amongst everyone else. You'd be forgiven for thinking Hathaway was far and away the movie's main acting play based on the marketing to date. And the Academy isn't kind on lead actors when they're not the big selling point of their film, which is why I remain more confident in predicting Hawkes than Cooper or Jackman.

Not to fan the flames, but I'm sorry, this is a horrible argument.

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

Hmmm. The lineup that was the safe prediction line-up that year was Cheadle, Depp, Giamatti, DiCaprio and Foxx. It was actually a fairly common prediction among the forms that Eastwood would get in, but most people took out Cheadle. I personally thought Depp would be the odd man out. Neeson barely factored into the conversation despite a Golden Globe nomination.

The situation that Kinsey was in is very well a situation that Hitchcock could find itself in at the end of the year. Mirren (like Linney) could find themselves getting more awards attention than their male counterpart based on the situation of the category.

Neeson barely factored in, but a case could have been made for Bardem (BFCA and GG nom) and Carey (GG and BAFTA nom)

[guany]

I did, the thing is I believe Lewis, Washington and Phoenix are Locks at this point while you and a few others seem to believe the last two are in vulnerable positions or were you talking about winning when you excluded DDL in the vulnerability sentence?

I hate the word lock, especially in November. That said, I believe the only lock is Daniel Day-Lewis. I'm still predicting Denzel and Phoenix, but this year is stacked and any one of Denzel/Phoenix/Cooper/Jackman/Hawkes missing would not surprise me.

I've seen all of these performances save Jackman, and I believe Day-Lewis is the only one that makes sense as the winner.

[kissfromarose]

The year Giamatti got snubbed was not packed at all, the race was done, his snub was a weird thing, Clint wasn't in anybody's radar, he got ZERO precursors. It was a major left field nom

Well, I think it's a packed race when the Lead Actor of the Best Picture winner is considered a left field nom.

[Moviefreak]

Having just seen Lincoln, I don't see how DDL loses this. Sure, he has two Oscar's already, but I don't know how anyone sees this performance and doesn't vote for him. First off, he's fantastic. Some of the best, most controlled work of his career and very, very different from his pervious winning performances. Secondly, this character is simply undeniable. The gravitas just comes pouring off the screen. Any reviewer that said he's overshadowed by anyone is out of their mind. DDL is the movie.

[ganonlink1991]

I'm gonna try to predict the whole damn race to the Oscars just for the fun, if I'm right give me a cookie haha

BFCA:
Bradley Cooper
DDL
John Hawkes
Hugh Jackman
Joaquin Phoenix
Denzel Washington

GG:
Drama:
DDL
John Hawkes
Anthony Hopkins
Joaquin Phoenix
Denzel Washington

Comedy:
Bradley Cooper
Hugh Jackman
Bill Murray
Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs)
Colin Firth (Gambit)

SAG (I expect they will fuck the race and all predictors will change their horses dropping Joaquin keeping Hawkes at 5....)
Bradley Cooper
DDL
Anthony Hopkins
Hugh Jackman
Denzel Washington

BAFTA
DDL
John Hawkes
Joaquin Phoenix
Jean-Louis Trintignant
Denzel Washington

Oscar (....only to end up being Hawkes and Hopkins who get the shaft at the end)
Bradley Cooper
DDL
Hugh Jackman
Joaquin Phoenix
Denzel Washington

Oh man.. and to think it's less than two months for the noms now haha

[ganonlink1991]

Well, I think it's a packed race when the Lead Actor of the Best Picture winner is considered a left field nom.

Best Picture winner in which the lead is overshadowed completely by the female lead and the main supporting character, yeah... it's not usual that a third in show lead gets in, pretty sure Richard Gere and Joseph Fiennes can confirm that

[electric_storm]

Not to fan the flames, but I'm sorry, this is a horrible argument.

What a persuasive response.

[McTeague]

Honestly, when I look at the trailers and promotional materials for this film, this film does not comes across as some one-man show where Jackman is totally indespensible/irreplacable. Sure he's the lead, but this thing feels like an epic with a cast of thousands (with many potential standout performers), and the biggest emphasis seems to on the production values and sheer scale of the film (something that may not be as evident on stage, where Jean Valjean probably does seem more of the dominant factor. It's not easy to CGI giant ships and crushing waves on a stage).

I, however, think Les Miserables hasn’t been greenlit (despite it being obvious since its release in the 80’s that it would sooner or later become a film) until there’s been a male star bankable enough that could sing “Bring Him Home”. In other words, I think Les miserables exists thanks, in a big part, to Jackman. You cannot do Les Miserables with a mediocre singer like Richard Gere in the lead or even just an acceptable one like Ewan McGregor. And you cannot afford a movie that expensive led by some unknown Tom Wilkinson. When they’ve had the combination of a bankable star that could also sing, they’ve done it. I think it will be pretty clear once you guys see how the story goes that Jackman/Valjean is the anchor of the film.

Now, I think Jackman can indeed fail, but not if Les Miserables is a hit.

I also think that, bad character posters aside, so far they’ve been very clever in how they’re marketing this, and if they’ve underlined Hathaway since the beginning it’s only for two reasons: her song is the most famous one now thanks to that Susan Boyle woman (hence one of the main selling points) and she has the one character that can be outshined (in females, by Eponine, in the whole thing, by Valjean and Javert too), so they’ve always needed to secure her spot first. I don’t think it has anything to do with Jackman/Valjean being outshined.

[Simon87]

BAFTA
DDL
John Hawkes
Joaquin Phoenix
Jean-Louis Trintignant
Denzel Washington

I'm quite confident that Hopkins will make it in Bafta, while he'll be snubbed by BFCA; either way, hopefully he won't make it on Nomination morning for such an undeserving performance!

[dlong5665]

I'm thinking:

BFCA
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel-Day Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

Golden Globe Drama
Daniel-Day Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

Golden Globe Comedy
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

SAG
Daniel-Day Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

BAFTA
Daniel-Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Some British Dude, Some British Movie

AMPAS
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel-Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

[Simon87]

AMPAS
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel-Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

My exact lineup as of now...

[Atonenent.]

BAFTA
Some British Dude, Some British Movie

Doesn't seem to be one this year and they never just pull it out from somewhere. I'm hoping against hope for Trintignant.

[ganonlink1991]

My exact lineup as of now...

As mine haha, I will only change it if Jackman dissapoints, then I'll replace him for Hawkes