Best Actress: November (3)

**Thomas** · 11-13-2012, 12:49 PM

To quote that article:

Originally Posted by Hollywood and Swine

“If you think Presidential campaigns can get dirty and ugly, you’ve never been behind the scenes of an Oscar campaign,” Weinstein told Hollywood & Swine. “If I had the New Black Panthers’ help back in 2005, Miramax’s ‘Finding Neverland’ would have beat ‘Million Dollar Baby’ for Best Picture”

Starting today, Academy members will receive a DVD screener of “Silver Linings Playbook” directed by David O. Russell and starring Bradley Cooper, which is an early favorite for Best Picture. According to Weinstein, each screener will be accompanied by a member of the New Black Panther Party who will live with the Academy member until they cast their final Oscar ballot, ensuring they won’t be intimidated into voting for competing studios’ films, including Dreamworks’ “Lincoln,” or Warner Bros.’ “Argo.”

This is the best Weinstein fun in quite a while. Too bad it's satire!

**Lawrence of Africa** · 11-13-2012, 02:17 PM

Originally Posted by steandric

anyone wants to know why silver linings playbook and jennifer lawrence are getting all these buzz?

http://hollywoodandswine.com/harvey-...k-panthers-to- prevent-academy-awards-voter-intimidation/

lmao!!!

**Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev** · 11-13-2012, 03:09 PM

I've decided to go bold with my prediction:

1. Lawrence
2. Wallis
3. Chastain
4. Cotillard
5. Riva

While Mirren seems like a safe bet, her film doesn't seem to be generating much buzz and Thompson doesn't really think the film or performances will be factors in the race. Others who have been to screenings claim that while the film is fun they're not sure if it would be much of a threat even in make-up.

**Lawrence of Africa** · 11-13-2012, 03:12 PM

Originally Posted by Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev

I've decided to go bold with my prediction:

1. Lawrence
2. Wallis
3. Chastain
4. Cotillard
5. Riva

While Mirren seems like a safe bet, her film doesn't seem to be generating much buzz and Thompson doesn't really think the film or performances will be factors in the race. Others who have been to screenings claim that while the film is fun they're not sure if it would be much of a threat even in make-up.

Riva and Marion? This is not Cannes. You guys seem to have forgotten about AMPAS' taste.

**Atonenent.** · 11-13-2012, 03:19 PM

Originally Posted by Lawrence of Africa

Riva and Marion? This is not Cannes. You guys seem to have forgotten about AMPAS' taste.

This is not a question of taste. Both Cotillard and Riva are more AMPAS-friendly than Rooney Mara in The Social Network. I truly believe they would both make it easily if their performances were in English, and Riva could probably win. It's the language. I can't recall the last time two foreign actresses with such reviews and such buzz were in contention, so I'm hoping against hope. But the world would end sooner than we would see both of them nominated, sadly.

**Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev** · 11-13-2012, 03:22 PM

Originally Posted by Lawrence of Africa

Riva and Marion? This is not Cannes. You guys seem to have forgotten about AMPAS' taste.

It's happened before, the last time was 1976 though this is probably the only year since then in which two foreign performances have had that much buzz. I mentioned 2009 before, but Tautou and Cruz didn't even have half the buzz combined when you compare it to Riva's and Cotillard's individually.

**Michael_Bay** · 11-13-2012, 03:40 PM

By foreign you all mean non english seaking gals, there are always english, austrialian, south african actresses in the mix at OScars.

**Atonenent.** · 11-13-2012, 03:44 PM

It's not a matter of origin, but the language itself. Foreign actresses refers to actresses who gave performances in languages that are not English.

**David Giancarlo** · 11-13-2012, 03:45 PM

Originally Posted by Lawrence of Africa

You guys seem to have forgotten about AMPAS' taste.

Yet, this does not stop you from predicting Knightley?

**erikdean** · 11-13-2012, 03:46 PM

Originally Posted by David Giancarlo

Yet, this does not stop you from predicting Knightley?

**Thomas** · 11-13-2012, 03:50 PM

Riva is in a film selected for the best foreign language race by Haneke, a two time Golden Palm winner and one of the hottest art house directors in recent years.
I don't trust that the AMPAS membership as such will remember that Riva for a long time has earned her place in the film pantheon.

Cotillard is a hot young actress appearing in a large number of Hollywood and int'l productions, and she has won a surprising and probably by many people considered very deserved Oscar recently. She is in a film by a Audiard whos last film, much like Hanekes, was up for an Oscar.
Cotillard does not have the benefit of having her film in the foreign language race, but her profile is far more recognizable than Riva's.

Both actresses portray women with disabilities of some sort.

I still think it is an uphill race for these two actresses, but that is because I do not trust AMPAS.
I also think that Riva has a slighter edge given Amour's high profile and likeability of getting at least a foreign language nomination.

I'll be thrilled if the Academy goes 2/5 with French actresses!

**Cecilia** · 11-13-2012, 03:51 PM

In regards to Winslet, she was also a victim of the infamous best actress divorce curse. Considering her divorce, small kids and Mendes being busy with Bond, it's not surprising she wanted to take a small break from films. No biggie.

Luckily for them, neither Jennifer nor Jessica are married.

**erikdean** · 11-13-2012, 04:03 PM

Kate Winslet isn't a victim, she creates them.

**crazyfists3600** · 11-13-2012, 04:05 PM

Let's leave the Winslet for next year, when she's relevant.

**Thomas** · 11-13-2012, 04:29 PM

Winslet's Relevance?
I think you can get a prescription for that.

**Jonathan** · 11-13-2012, 04:46 PM

Originally Posted by guany

I saw Skyfall tonight, and I feel like Judi Dench has to get an Oscar nod for something this year. I'm not sure it if will happen for the Bond, but I think it could happen for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. It made tons of money, and old people love it.

Having seen Marigold, I have a hard time seeing it resonate that much with the Academy. It was a hit, yes, and especially with AMPAS's main demo, but I just don't see enough voters seriously deciding it's THE best at anything this year. Maybe Smith in Supporting, but just because that category is stupid-weak this year. Definitely not Dench, who has a nice arc, but it's still slight in comparison to pretty much every other contender here - even Watts!

**Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev** · 11-13-2012, 04:54 PM

So, Silver Linings Playbook now has a 76/100 on MC with 11 reviews; 6 are raves, 2 are good, 2 are decent and 1 is atrocious (and they still haven't added Rex Reed's bad review). It's still early but with the hype I thought it would be doing better? Anyway, if the reviews continue like this would Lawrence really be a threat for Riva at the critic awards (obviously Oscars are a different matter)?