Best Actress: November (2)

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

Do you know if the screener has been sent to BAFTA yet?

I don't know about BAFTA, I get the screener info from academy member Ken Rudolph's website; he lists the screeners he receives: http://kenru.net/movies/2012_13_academy_screeners.html

I'm surprised so few have been sent considering AMPAS members have to submit their ballots 2 weeks earlier than usual for this years awards.

[dlong5665]

Saying "I am fat" is not the Kate Winslet campaign strategy. Dear God it's not even close to that travesty. :shudder:

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

LOL I can tell you now that the INOCA nominees will be Marion Cotillard, Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhané Wallis, Rachel Weisz and Jennifer Lawrence. INOCA sometimes are more easy to predict than Oscars.

Replace Lawrence or Weisz with Chastain, lol. Chastain is the new AD LEGEND GODDESS.

[Mike Aiello]

Summit/Lionsgate finally sent The Impossible screener to AMPAS (received today), seems like a good strategy to send it earlier than the other actress contenders (only Wallis film was sent first) films; perhaps this could help Watts? I've also heard from people that the film has been very well received at screenings with crying throughout the film and applause at the end, it'll likely play well with AMPAS.

I think at this point Watts will just depend on how the rest of the competition fares. Lawrence and Wallis look good to go...Mirren is likely to get that default veteran nod plus the fact that she's British, she'll probably have British backing. She looks like fun and Hollywood loves her, so that's that. Chastain is the new AD flavor of the month (and last month), so we'll see it if lasts. Leaving one spot open...most people are going with Cotillard at this point. I'd say Watts gets in if Chastain and/or Cotillard don't get the momentum they need from critics and precursors. That's also assuming Keira Knightley and Judi Dench don't make any serious mark during the awards run as well, not to mention Emmanuelle Riva. Difference between all of those and Watts is that I see more "passion" (and hence more #1 votes) for the rest of the ladies. I could be wrong though as I don't know how "The Impossible" will be received here in the states....but from the looks of it, she's gotten good notices but despite people saying it's a weak year, there's actually a lot of contenders and they seem to be gaining more buzz/momentum than her at the moment.

[electric_storm]

Saying "I am fat" is not the Kate Winslet campaign strategy. Dear God it's not even close to that travesty. :shudder:

Lol I know it's not really that bad. I love JLaw, I'm just having a dig. It's definately reminiscent though. I don't think she needs to worry about sob stories though in order to win this year...

[OscarsFan 2.3]

With Riva winning, I'm sure.

I'm voting Marion. :predictable:

[Michael_Bay]

Lol I know it's not really that bad. I love JLaw, I'm just having a dig. It's definately reminiscent though. I don't think she needs to worry about sob stories though in order to win this year...

YOu have to understand that Jlaw is a very particlar animal.

She doesn't have a filter in her brain, she says whatever is in her mind at any particular moment.

So your "sob story" argument doesn't quite cut it. She is not trying to be cute or something ...

Plus, she's right.

Hollywood celebrates the Somalian look ( I want to name drop someone but if I did, the forum would implode unto itself ...) and as soon as an actress has curves, she s plagued with sniding comments by some ...

[Lawrence of Africa]

YOu have to understand that Jlaw is a very particlar animal.

She doesn't have a filter in her brain, she says whatever is in her mind at any particular moment.

So your "sob story" argument doesn't quite cut it. She is not trying to be cute or something ...

Plus, she's right.

Hollywood celebrates the Somalian look ( I wnat to name drop but if I did, the forum would implode unto itself ...) and as soon as an actress has curves, she s plagued with sniding comments by some ...

Somalian look? Really? Ugh! White people. What is wrong with you people? Seriously

[electric_storm]

YOu have to understand that Jlaw is a very particlar animal.

She doesn't have a filter in her brain, she says whatever is in her mind at any particular moment.

So your "sob story" argument doesn't quite cut it. She is not trying to be cute or something ...

Plus, she's right.

Hollywood celebrates the Somalian look ( I wnat to name drop but if I did, the forum would implode unto itself ...) and as soon as an actress has curves, she s plagued with sniding comments by some ...

I'm KIDDING. I'm not attacking her, I love her, I just think her quotes can sound amusing from a certain angle.

[Jali]

I don't know about BAFTA, I get the screener info from academy member Ken Rudolph's website; he lists the screeners he receives: http://kenru.net/movies/2012_13_academy_screeners.html

I'm surprised so few have been sent considering AMPAS members have to submit their ballots 2 weeks earlier than usual for this years awards.

And Arbitrage is the first male screener sended to the Academy. I've saying this for the last months: watch out because Gere could be our surprise nominee of the year. BFCA and HFPA noms are sure and with the screeners out he can be now a SAG default nominee.

[Atonenent.]

In a weaker year, I'd absolutely predict Gere. This year, nope.

Riva vs. Cotillard, as I think one but only one is absolutely getting in

Marion has:
- star factor
- major campaign
- the more accessible film
- previous winner factor
- a better shot at nods with BFCA, GG

Emmanuelle has:
- the showier performance
- the more acclaimed film likely to get other nods
- a better shot at critics awards
- first-time nominee factor

Their perfs are currently my #1 and #2 of the year so far, I prefer Riva, but it's a Sophie's Choice. I'm really happy they're in the race, because normally they wouldn't be. I think Riva is likelier at the moment, because the voters will absolutely connect to her film and she will get a lot of attention, but Cotillard has a really good shot too, she could even win the Drama Globe.

[Michael_Bay]

Don't take it bad but I ve read somewhere that amour is a horrible movie and the only redeeming quality is Trintignant while Riva is nothing to write home about.

So fun to see different perpectives on a movie it s like it s not even the same one people are talking about.

I for one absolutely loathes Haneke for everything he represents and stands for, he is the bottom barrel of the lefty europeen intellectual, a self absorbed "artiste" with a patronizing attitude about America, Hollywood and the youth, you wouldn't believe the stupid things he said about his lame Funny Games movie and his lamer Remake.

What an arrogant prick, can't believe how much "critics" and festivals all over the world deep throat him on a daily basis.

But he s old so retirement is looming : FINALLY !!!

[Atonenent.]

Don't take it bad but I ve read somewhere that amour is a horrible movie and the only redeeming quality is Trintignant while Riva is nothing to write home about.

Yeah, one in a thousand is bound to have this opinion, as with any movie, and it couldn't be more wrong. It's so ironic to see 'Michael Bay' trashing Haneke, LOL, but I'll admit I'm not a big fan of his. I do think he is a great director though. It's undeniable Amour has almost universal acclaim.

[Submerge]

NBR: Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
NYFCC: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
LAFCA: Emmauelle Riva, Amour
NSFC: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

BFCA
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

GG (Drama)
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

GG (Comedy/Musical)
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip

SAG
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

BAFTA
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

AMPAS
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

[electric_storm]

Dench at SAG but not BAFTA seems very unlikely.

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

Dench at SAG but not BAFTA seems very unlikely.

I could see it happening considering she's already a contender in supporting she'll probably get in there leaving a spot for leading open.

[Submerge]

Dench at SAG but not BAFTA seems very unlikely.

Perhaps, but I just think the film was more of a story in the US.

[Cesky]

It may have been more a story, but her film did even better at the UK box office (it did really well in both countries obviously)

[with_one_voice]

If the BIFAs are any indication, the Brits responded well to Marigold

[Thomas]

If the BIFAs are any indication, the Brits responded well to Marigold

The BIFAs aren't.