Best Actress: November (2)

[Mike Aiello]

Eh, I think Lawrence would easily beat Salma and Diane (assuming her movie would also be a BP nominee, which it probably would). I also think Lawrence could beat 2005's Witherspoon, 2007's Cotillard and 2009's Bullock. I have my doubts about Winslet, for Harvey would have obviously had a much stronger contender BP in SLP than in The Reader, hence Winslet wouldn't have been in a BP nominee.

2002 - Lawrence could, as you said, have beaten Salma and Diane without a problem. The other three (Zellweger, Moore, and winner Kidman)...well I don't know. Probably not (though she might have gotten more votes than Moore who wasn't in a BP nominee?)

As for 2005, I don't think Lawrence would have beaten Witherspoon. Witherspoon was America's sweetheart (after Julia Roberts) and if we're assuming Lawrence is where she's at now (in 2012) in the 2005 race...she would have more resembled Keira Knightley...really young, rising star, part of a popular franchise but ultimately bested by someone who had been in the business longer and was playing a real person.

And she wouldn't have beaten Bullock either for that matter. Carey and Gabby both came from more critically-acclaimed films and Gabby's film picked up several important awards on Oscar night and still couldn't best Sandra...no way Jennifer would have for a borderline supporting performance against a more popular, seasoned movie star.

About Cotillard...well I don't know. That's iffy. Maybe she could have.

[electric_storm]

Eh, I think Lawrence would easily beat Salma and Diane (assuming her movie would also be a BP nominee, which it probably would). I also think Lawrence could beat 2005's Witherspoon, 2007's Cotillard and 2009's Bullock. I have my doubts about Winslet, for Harvey would have obviously had a much stronger contender BP in SLP than in The Reader, hence Winslet wouldn't have been in a BP nominee.

Diane probably yeah (though she had a nice comback narrative and critics backing), but I wonder about Salma. In a year without Kidman she'd be the hot star deglamming in a biopic role, and her film did surprisingly well that year with voters overall. She'd win the Drama Globe this year for sure anyway.

Probably yes against Witherspoon considering the BP nomination, Harvey and generally more ravey reviews, maybe against Marion (she'd beat Christie anyway), but not against Bullock. I think people underrate how obvious that win was because she sorta came out of nowhere and it doesn't look like a good win in retrospect, but everyone in the industry loves Sandra, she had a killer year, carried her film to 200 million + and a BP nomination, charmed everyone with her speeches, and was playing a tough but warm hearted everywoman who plays on everyone's white guilt. It's Julia in EB all over. I think she could have won in most recent years (including the last).

[Lawrence of Africa]

Eh, I think Lawrence would easily beat Salma and Diane (assuming her movie would also be a BP nominee, which it probably would). I also think Lawrence could beat 2005's Witherspoon, 2007's Cotillard and 2009's Bullock. I have my doubts about Winslet, for Harvey would have obviously had a much stronger contender BP in SLP than in The Reader, hence Winslet wouldn't have been in a BP nominee.

[Lawrence of Africa]

So yeah. The Impossible has made $42.5 million so far in Spain and beat Skyfall for #1 over the weekend.

How the fuck is the Spanish box office related to anything? What is this? los Premios Goya? *****...

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

lol, Watts is totally happening.

[erikdean]

So yeah. The Impossible has made $42.5 million so far in Spain and beat Skyfall for #1 over the weekend.

[McTeague]

Regarding Bullock, I disagree. I thin Bullock won a lot by default. Had Monique been the lead in Precious, would Bullock have won? Yeah, Sidibe was in a BP nominee but, unlike Lawrence, she wasn't the revelation of her film. Monique, was, and she steamrolled through the season, not loosing a single award. Had Sidibe had Monique's reviews, or had Monique been the lead of Precious, Precious' leading actress would have easily crushed Sandra. And An Education was never a Top 5 BP nominee winning audience awards left and right, it wasn't a film AMPAS had to award "somewhere". In 2009, just like in 2012, SLP would have been a really beloved BP contender that wouldn’t win the top award but would have to be acknowledged “somewhere”, and that somewhere would have been Best Actress, like it will be this year. That’s exactly how Emma Thompson, Holly Hunter, Frances McDormand, Helen Hunt, Julia Roberts, Nicole Kidman, Helen Mirren, and Natalie Portman won. By being the most outstanding performance of a Top 5 BP contender that wasn’t going to win BP but was clearly beloved. Not to mention Bullock wouldn’t have led TBS to a BP nomination had SLP opened in 2009.

[Mike Aiello]

I think there's too many "if's" there but it's all hypothetical anyway. I mean maybe "District 9" would have missed. Who knows? 2009 was definitely Sandra's year, so whether we suppose a 22-year-old Lawrence could beat her or not is all just so hypothetical, it's hard to say. I still think Sandra was the clear winner that year, with AMPAS not firmly standing behind either Gabby, Carey, or Meryl. But we'll never know and it doesn't really matter lol.

[electric_storm]

I'm imagining if we drop Bullock into THIS year, and I say she wins, pretty easily. Mulligan and especially Sibide were both in more popular films than her, but she got her film into the BP lineup entirely off her own back, that says alot. Mrs. No Campaign woudn't have beaten her either imo, but that one is totally hypothetical because lead and supporting perfomances get different kinds of reactions, and it's easy to look like an indomitable force if your biggest competition is -lol- Anna Kendrick. And they could well give SLP screenplay as compensation as it seems like that kind of quirky dramedy, crowdpleasing BP also-ran that often wins there.

[McTeague]

I really don’t think so. Lawrence has an amazing year like Bullock (Hunger Games), name recognition and popularity way beyond Carey’s and Sidibe’s, a movie ten times more popular than An Education, and way more critical respect than Bullock. Bullock’s win was a default one if there ever was one. Her only competition, Streep, was in a movie even lighter and even less liked than The Blind Side. She would have never beaten ANY of the decade’s other winners, not even Cotillard or Witherspoon. Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman would have won in 2009 for the same reason, the huge popularity of her film in a barren field. But Julia Roberts couldn’t even beat Kathy What’s Her Name in Misery because that year had true, respected frontrunners. Lawrence is basically this year’s Natalie Portman, albeit her role is more supporting, but that’s the only thing she has against her.

[Lawrence of Africa]

I really don’t think so. Lawrence has an amazing year like Bullock (Hunger Games), name recognition and popularity way beyond Carey’s and Sidibe’s, a movie ten times more popular than An Education, and way more critical respect than Bullock. Bullock’s win was a default one if there ever was one. Her only competition, Streep, was in a movie even lighter and even less liked than The Blind Side. She would have never beaten ANY of the decade’s other winners, not even Cotillard or Witherspoon. Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman would have won in 2009 for the same reason, the huge popularity of her film in a barren field. But Julia Roberts couldn’t even beat Kathy What’s Her Name in Misery because that year had true, respected frontrunners. Lawrence is basically this year’s Natalie Portman, albeit her role is more supporting, but that’s the only thing she has against her.

*****, stop!

[bluerose]

Has anyone seen SLP?

I mean I adore Jlaw and no doubt she is fierce as always but from the trailers it seems almost more of a supporting role?
For those who have seen it does she deserve a win?

[raguabros]

I'm imagining if we drop Bullock into THIS year, and I say she wins, pretty easily. Mulligan and especially Sibide were both in more popular films than her, but she got her film into the BP lineup entirely off her own back, that says alot.

I agree with you on this one. Bullock was unstoppable her year and would be this year too.

[Cecilia]

I have pretty much the same people in Sup Actress category than in late spring but best actress category has been a total mess for me this year. Out of my Lawrence/Smith/Cotillard/Bullock/Knightley/Hunt lineup only Lawrence remains with Cotillard as an alternate and Knightley in somewhere top 10. Since the category has been a clusterfuck so far, I'm kinda hoping it remains so until the oscars which would make things a tad more interesting instead of every awards body nominating pretty much the same five people. I think oscar is currently JLaw's to lose, I can't see anyone from the already seen films beating her and Chastain seems to be the only remaining contender who could steal her thunder. I have to admit that I selfishly kinda want Lawrence to win even if Chastain will be better in her role just because I hopped the Lawrence train in April when she didn't seem to be on most prognostics' radar. I've had Jackman and Hathaway as winners since their casting announcement but their wins wouldn't be anyway near as satisfying since Les Mis is clearly a more awards-baity project.

1. Lawrence
2. Wallis
3. Mirren
4. Chastain
5. Watts/Dench/Cotillard

I had Riva in my lineup for couple of months but have changed my mind. While Amour is the foreign film of the year prestige-wise, I'm not sure enough acting branch members will have seen it nomination-time. If you are AMPAS actor holidaying with your family, do your family members really want to watch Amour with you over something like Hitchcock, ZDT or Les Mis? I'm sure it's a great and important movie and all that but I personally don't want to see it and I'm sure there are plenty of AMPAS members who feel the same. I've had to watch great-grandparents and grandparents slowly die over the years succumbing to illnesses such as alzheimer , parkinsons etc. and I don't need or want to see it on screen.

[Cecilia]

Has anyone seen SLP?

I mean I adore Jlaw and no doubt she is fierce as always but from the trailers it seems almost more of a supporting role?
For those who have seen it does she deserve a win?

Lol. I don't know what trailer you've seen but all the trailers/scenes/tv spots I've seen so far have focused on JLaw alongside Cooper. They are really using her newfound fame to sell the movie to general audience. When asked the question, people who've seen the film have said that Tiffany is a borderline supporting/leading role meaning that Harvey can effectively choose which category he wants to campaign her without it being a category fraud. I think in most years Lawrence would be campaigned in lead category except when supporting category lacks a strong contender while lead category has one. If SLP had come out last year, with barren supporting category and Williams and Streep already in lead, imo Harvey would have pushed Jennifer in supporting and she totally would have won over Spencer (ceteris paribus).

[bluerose]

Lol. I don't know what trailer you've seen but all the trailers/scenes/tv spots I've seen so far have focused on JLaw alongside Cooper. They are really using her newfound fame to sell the movie to general audience. When asked the question, people who've seen the film have said that Tiffany is a borderline supporting/leading role meaning that Harvey can effectively choose which category he wants to campaign her without it being a category fraud. I think in most years Lawrence would be campaigned in lead category except when supporting category lacks a strong contender while lead category has one. If SLP had come out last year, with barren supporting category and Williams and Streep already in lead, imo Harvey would have pushed Jennifer in supporting and she totally would have won over Spencer (ceteris paribus).

Ive been watching the wrong trailers

Thanks for answering makes much more sense now

[DirkDiggler]

I know... I know. This is just an IMDB review. And that means it doesn't matter much to any of you.

But I think this section of it perfectly defines how AMPAS are going to react to Watts' performance in The Impossible.

Probably since Kate Winslet, I've never felt an actress deserving an Oscar nomination and win, but Naomi Watt's performance is nothing less than brilliant. This type of emotion, this type of connection both with the other characters and the audience is what acting is really all about. She's deserving of every season award there is. And I have a feeling that she doesn't even care about it. I felt her commitment to the family and to nothing else. Just bravo.

The young children, specially Lucas the oldest of the three, and the husband portrayed by Ewan McGregor are also great, but as another review stated above, the second part of the story that follows the husband's trip to find her missing child and wife was not as emotional or graphic as Maria's journey on the first part. There's absolutely no one to blame for this, it is just that Maria was the one who got injured the most, and as I stated, Watt's performance was on a league on its own.

Review gave it a 9/10 if anyone cares.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1649419/reviews

[Lawrence of Africa]

I know... I know. This is just an IMDB review. And that means it doesn't matter much to any of you.

But I think this section of it perfectly defines how AMPAS are going to react to Watts' performance in The Impossible.


Review gave it a 9/10 if anyone cares.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1649419/reviews

Dirk, you need to stop, like right now.

[Habsburg]

Lawrence
Wallis-Simpson (still not sold on the 6yr old but )

Knightley
Watts
Riva

Mirren (don't think they are going to buy Hitch)
Chastain jumps to two if ZD30 performs like The Hurt Locker.

Oh look, I haven't changed my mind.

[clearwatergirl]

Naomi Watts and Tom Holland will officially go lead for The Impossible. McGregor supporting

http://lionsgateawards.com/theimpossible/