Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Anthony Hopkins – Hitchcock
Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Denzel Washington – Flight
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
3. Denzel Washington, Flight
4. John Hawkes, The Sessions
5. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Recently watched films:
A History of Violence - ***1/2
The Flat - **
Upstream Color - ***1/2
Man of Steel - **1/2
The Ascent - *****
I never thought that Denzel was winning for Flight and after seeing the movie, I'm sure that he won't. I thought he wasn't good at all and the film was awful. He'll probably he nominated anyway (although I wish he won't), but he's not winning.
You are literally one of the only people who have even tried to claim he wasn't even "good". Seriously, even people who hate the film are saying he's amazing in it.
He's not winning a third oscar for this performance. His reviews will get him a nomination, but he's not winning for this film. This has nothing to do with my biases as most people on here will tell you, I know how to put them aside when predicting. However, I really don't think that he will win an Oscar for this.
Everything here is opinion. We're predicting right? And my prediction is that he won't win.
Last edited by homespun; 11-03-2012 at 12:59 AM.
I saw this film with Matt Mazur, who's a pretty respected poster on this site and he had the exact same reaction as I did. Me not liking this performance does nothing to my "credibility." It's just an opinion. Yes, it's different from the critical consensus, but so what? I've predicted plenty of performances that I disliked to win Oscars, it just so happens that I don't think this one will. Is this gospel? No, it's just my opinion, but I happen to think that it'll be correct.
I've seen Flight and I definitely see this as a potential for Denzel Washington to win Best Actor. He's just outstanding.
It looks like Flight will be a bigger hit than anticipated, the studio was only expecting a 12 million weekend debut so they released it on about 1,900 theatres, but according to deadline it's headed for a 21 million weekend debut.
Washington wasn't ever winning a third anyway.
I seriously think Washington could sweep every single award right up until oscar night, and you'd still get a handful of people here saying, "nah, Hugh Jackman will win this....I feel it in my bones".LOL
The precursors will seperate the wheat from the chaff. I think on evidence of his notices (and the edginess of the role for a star of his calibre), Denzel's going to have a great showing at the critics awards, and he'll build up a big slice of momentum, that he will go with into the industry awards (where his stardom will factor greatly). Whether he wins in the end is debatable, but it's hard to believe he won't be in the running right up until the end. I still think it'll go down to him and DDL. Have to actually see some reviews for Jackman before I buy him as a potential winner. But now that Hopkins has been seen (and effectively ruled out as as a winner because his reviews don't match up to the frontrunners), then Jackman is the last unseen guy who can potentially wreck the "DDL or Denzel" narrative.
And Flight's opening was underestimated again. It's now being estimated to open at 23 million (the crowd pleasing Argo opened to 19.5 million in over a 1000 more theaters for comparison). Taking other factors into play, the industry may well want to acknowledge that Washington is probably the last and only movie star who could open a movie like this, as succesfully. He's reached an iconic level of stardom in a sense. It's no doubt the sort box office success with As Good As It Gets that helped Nicholson to his third, over seriously weighty competition like Robert Duvall and Fonda.
Last edited by homespun; 11-03-2012 at 09:03 AM.