Box Office Thread: Winter is Coming...

[Jonathan]

Wednesday numbers from ERC:

1. Les Miserables - $12 million (-34%, $30 million)
2. The Hobbit - $11.3 million (-0%, $179 million)
3. Django Unchained - $10 million (-33%, $25 million)

GREAT holds for all three, especially the openers. Ali and Alien vs. Predator 2 both had much harsher 2nd day drops from their Tuesday openings (43% and 54% respectively), and while those were both poorly received (Compared to the positive reactions for Les Miz and Django), I thought the fanbase rush would give these films similar drops. They'll probably drop another 15-30% each today, but Les Miz stands a good chance of taking the weekend crown if it holds better than The Hobbit.

[erikdean]

Jeez, I was not expecting Les Mis to be this big.

[Submerge]

I'm really impressed with Django's take thus far.

[Jonathan]

Jeez, I was not expecting Les Mis to be this big.

It's looking at over $70 million in its first week, which would be nothing short of incredible. And Django is looking at around $60 million. Considering the Oscar buzz and good WOM for both, I suspect they'll at least double those grosses by the end of their runs, Which would mean $140+ million for Les Miz (Possibly passing Mamm Mia! and making it one of the Top 3 musicals of all time) and $120+ million for Django (Passing Inglourious Basterds to be QT's biggest hit ever). It's all just a matter of both films maintaining buzz and momentum after the holidays are over, and not flopping with the Oscars.

[veritas]

Jeez, I was not expecting Les Mis to be this big.

Like...really?

Every single holiday party I went to this past week was filled with chatter about how excited people were over it.

[ReadyForMyCloseUp]

The American public has such abysmal taste. Tom Hooper's going to be allowed to make more movies now. :/

[shooter_mcgavin]

The American public has such abysmal taste. Tom Hooper's going to be allowed to make more movies now. :/

I know that Tom Hooper is very disliked here and I too was mad that he got an Oscar when David Fincher was left out. But I still think America has better taste than most countries when it comes to movies where quality films are guaranteed to make some good money. Les Miz seems like a hit there and I would kill for a country or culture that embraces movies like Les Miz or The King's Speech.

[Donezo]

Better Tom Hooper than Michael Bay.

[dyedred19]

I pretty much hate Tom Hooper, but it's silly to loop him into "bad American taste."

Americans have actually been doing a pretty outstanding job this year.

[Jonathan]

Also:

New worldwide total for LES MISERABLES: $58.6 million.

And that's from only six countries, among which the biggest markets are Japan, Spain and Australia (Where it only opened yesterday).

This is going to be big. Everywhere.

[bryan1311]

Like...really?

Every single holiday party I went to this past week was filled with chatter about how excited people were over it.

I love this sort of anecdotal evidence.

Well, everyone I know wants to see it, so EVERYONE must feel the same way...

[with_one_voice]

I love this sort of anecdotal evidence.

Well, everyone I know wants to see it, so EVERYONE must feel the same way...

LOL, yeah, seriously. For example, someone who lives in NYC and works in entertainment is obviously going to attend parties where people talk about wanting to see a prestigious movie-musical. If I, on the other hand, don't know anyone who gives two shits about seeing Les Mis, is that supposed to indicate that it's going to flop?

[Dr_Dmitri-Yuriev]

Jeez, I was not expecting Les Mis to be this big.

Really? Isn't this musical supposed to have a large fanbase? With that alone you should have expected a great first week; I think it would have had a great first week even if it had received Phantom of the Opera type pans.

[veritas]

LOL, yeah, seriously. For example, someone who lives in NYC and works in entertainment is obviously going to attend parties where people talk about wanting to see a prestigious movie-musical. If I, on the other hand, don't know anyone who gives two shits about seeing Les Mis, is that supposed to indicate that it's going to flop?

Yeesh, guys!

Despite me living in New York, working in entertainment, and attending parties where people do indeed talk about wanting to see prestigious movie-musicals, I was actually referencing my time this holiday season back in my incredibly small, northern Massachusetts hometown where people at gatherings don't normally do all of that aforementioned prestigious movie-musical talking.

But I do get the hatred for person-to-person anecdotal evidence. So apologies there.

[Bremen]

I've always said this was going to be a massive hit. From my 80 year old grandparents to my 50 something parents and my 22 year old sister, all were enthused about seeing it. My gay friends on facebook, my coworkers from each of my last three jobs, basically everyone I know from every demographic has seen/expressed interest in seeing it. I know the anecdotal evidence may not mean much but I think this is a very universal film. I too am surprised at the lack of musical love on this board. I mean, I grew up with Disney movies, The Sound of Music, Mary Poppins. It's not such a stretch from there to Les Miserables.

[Josh_The Original]

I think what's driving it here, from a sheer 'anecdotal' perspective, is curiosity. The only people who seem excited about it, are the musical types, but everyone else seems to think "eh... I'll give it a bash". At Christmas, most people were talking about the Hobbit likely being a disappointment, and having to wait until February to see Lincoln.

[with_one_voice]

I think what's driving it here, from a sheer 'anecdotal' perspective, is curiosity. The only people who seem excited about it, are the musical types, but everyone else seems to think "eh... I'll give it a bash". At Christmas, most people were talking about the Hobbit likely being a disappointment, and having to wait until February to see Lincoln.

What happens with Lincoln in February ?

[Submerge]

What happens with Lincoln in February ?

It opens in Australia, right?

[nadine]

It opens in Australia, right?

Yep.

We get Django, Silver Linings, Zero Dark Thirty, Anna Karenina and Lincoln in the space of three weeks - well three Thursdays (Jan 24 - Feb 7).

Basically anything after Jan 1 is when the big guns start opening in Australia (excluding LM and Hobbit which have already opened).

ETA: Because I can't type today.

[curtis20]

Early Thursday numbers
The Hobbit- 10.6. 6% drop from Wendsday
Les Mis- 9.4 22% drop from Wendsday
Django- 8.7 13% drop from Wendsday

http://m.deadline.com/2012/12/first-...christmas-day/


I wonder will Django overtake Less this weekend.