2013 Emmy Predictions

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Though, obviously, Enlightened's best chance is in writing, I still think it's not the best shot in the world. The Wire had greater critical acclaim and better ratings, and it only managed the two writing noms for its third and fifth seasons. Enlightened's best shot was to get Laura Dern in for its first season, and it wasn't able to do that. By and large, people within the Hollywood community just don't seem aware of the show. (This also plagued The Wire.) Plus, Mike White isn't the most well-liked figure within the Hollywood community.

I think the breakdown will probably be something like...

1. Louie
2. Girls
3. 30 Rock finale
4. Office finale
5. Modern Family

With another 30 Rock, another Modern Family, a New Girl (assuming they submit well), a Parks, and a Veep bringing up the next tier. Arrested Development should have a great shot in this category, too, regardless of whether the Academy as a whole embraces the Netflix model (which I think is unlikely). If the Office finale sucks, it's just easy enough to swap any of the above in, and I think Enlightened is behind all of them.

In terms of comedy pilots that could get in, however, the best bet is Bunheads, of all things, so I'm guessing this will be another year of returning shows for the category.

But I also think this is the year Breaking Bad finally cracks the drama writing category, and I'm always wrong about that, so whatever.

HS

Breaking Bad will get a writing nomination when they stop submitting so many episodes for consideration.

[Souler]

Vince Gilligan wrote half of them, so they'll almost have to!

HS

Only two. They can send seven of the eight aired episodes. And probably will.

[hurricanesmith]

Only two. They can send seven of the eight aired episodes. And probably will.

Huh. I thought Gilligan wrote the first two and the last two, but I guess not.

Regardless, I think the show's profile is large enough (or, rather, Gilligan's profile is large enough) that he will be nominated.

HS

[filmy]

I'll just do comedy for now.

Comedy Series
30 Rock
Arrested Development
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family

Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Louis C. K., Louie
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Actress in a Comedy Series
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Arnett, Arrested Development
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Jeffrey Tambor, Arrested Development

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Zosia Mamet, Girls
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Jessica Walter, Arrested Development

Writing for a Comedy Series
30 Rock
Arrested Development
Girls
Louie
The Office

Directing for a Comedy Series
30 Rock
Arrested Development
Girls
Girls
Modern Family

[Rage Colored Glasses]

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the year that it happens even though I'm not predicting it. I think that whether or not it manages to pull it off will be the key to telling whether it can finally win Drama Series. If it can still get Series/Directing/four acting nominations (swapping Banks in for Esposito) and writing on top of that it'll be a force to be reckoned with.

[jjj]

Well, it's the best reviewed new drama of the season and has pulled solid ratings for a cable show, so.

I don't keep up with reading reviews of every episode of every show, but at least the reviews for the initial episodes based on Metacritic indicate that Nashville's reviews are better to the extent that the quality gap between it and Americans is bigger than the gap Americans has with House of Cards, Elementary, Last Resort, and Arrow. And Americans had no initial reviews that f'loved the show, unlike Nashville, House of Cards, Last Resort, and Arrow. It's also lower than last season's start to Smash, and in a non-apples-to-apples comparison it's lower than TNT's Dallas reboot.

And I would call the ratings non-terrible but not necessarily solid. It was the #28-rated primetime cable program on Wednesday, under things like Full Throttle Saloon, an American Dad rerun, and Workaholics.

The smart thing for BB would probably be to stick with their 2 episodes that already A) won a major award and B) were nominated for two majors - Dead Freight and Fifty-One for Editing/Directing, with a swap-out of a Gilligan-written episode to go with a Fifty-One writing submission to see if they would rather throw a writing nom to the buzziest episode or give a nod to the person running the show. Two submissions each seems reasonable.

[drod93]

I don't keep up with reading reviews of every episode of every show, but at least the reviews for the initial episodes based on Metacritic indicate that Nashville's reviews are better to the extent that the quality gap between it and Americans is bigger than the gap Americans has with House of Cards, Elementary, Last Resort, and Arrow. And Americans had no initial reviews that f'loved the show, unlike Nashville, House of Cards, Last Resort, and Arrow. It's also lower than last season's start to Smash, and in a non-apples-to-apples comparison it's lower than TNT's Dallas reboot.

The difference is that the scores for both 'The Americans' and 'House of Cards' are for more than their pilots.
That's the main problem when considering Metacritic scores for BROADCAST shows, since the only episode they send out for review is the pilot, meanwhile cable shows are able to send, usually at least, the first 2 to 3 episodes of the series.

That's the main reason why Broadcast shows need much more buzz than their cable counterparts. That's also why 'Smash' had such an inflated Metacritic score, since critics when reviewing the pilots also take into consideration the promise the shows show.

So 'The Americans' got its score for their first few episodes, which is a fine good score. While 'House of Cards' got its score for its entire season. However, I believe the biggest hurdle in 'The Americans' is its lack of actual buzz, while good, I don't think its anything spectacular. I think it'll get the 'Justified' treatment, where they don't get in for their first season, however if they have a better second season, than I would predict them.

Meanwhile, I think the hardest problem with 'House of Cards' is that we need to see how Netflix is able to campaign them. Are they going to send any FYC screeners? I don't think that anybody in the academy without Netflix by now, is going to get it just so they could possibly vote for it.

[erikdean]

Netflix wouldn't have to send screeners, they could just give out free (temporary) streaming memberships to voters.

[siowafc]

Eh, considering how much they have already invested in the show (I read $4 million+ an episode), the amount of money it would take to send out screeners would be trivial.

[hurricanesmith]

The difference is that the scores for both 'The Americans' and 'House of Cards' are for more than their pilots.
That's the main problem when considering Metacritic scores for BROADCAST shows, since the only episode they send out for review is the pilot, meanwhile cable shows are able to send, usually at least, the first 2 to 3 episodes of the series.

That's the main reason why Broadcast shows need much more buzz than their cable counterparts. That's also why 'Smash' had such an inflated Metacritic score, since critics when reviewing the pilots also take into consideration the promise the shows show.

So 'The Americans' got its score for their first few episodes, which is a fine good score. While 'House of Cards' got its score for its entire season. However, I believe the biggest hurdle in 'The Americans' is its lack of actual buzz, while good, I don't think its anything spectacular. I think it'll get the 'Justified' treatment, where they don't get in for their first season, however if they have a better second season, than I would predict them.

Meanwhile, I think the hardest problem with 'House of Cards' is that we need to see how Netflix is able to campaign them. Are they going to send any FYC screeners? I don't think that anybody in the academy without Netflix by now, is going to get it just so they could possibly vote for it.

Number of episodes sent out for review:

Nashville - 1 (and reviews cratered after that)
Americans - 2 (reviews have gotten better from a strong start)
House Of Cards - 2 (reviews have slid from a strong start)

HS

[jb]

I've read some early reviews of Hannibal (mostly positive) and apparently the standout is Hugh Dancy and not Mads Mikkelsen. Will have to see how the show performs critically and commercially but he's another name to consider in the increasingly crowded lead actor category.