I feel like if Louie couldn't get in last year, with season 2's stellar reviews and the huge buzz for season 3, then it almost certainly won't this year. There won't be new episodes to remind people it exits and the reception of season 3 seemed to be a slight step down from season 2.
Season 3 was maybe received a little below Season 2 at first, but by the end with the Late Show trilogy it was definitely held in the same esteem I think. That said, the fight is going to be fierce to get into this field this year. Modern Family, 30 Rock, Girls and Big Bang Theory are safe, and for the last two spots Veep, Louie, New Girl and Enlightened are all battling it out, plus the specter of Arrested Development hanging over the category.
I think Louie definitely has a shot.
But, as Rage said, 30 Rock, Modern Family, Girls and Big Bang are all but locked. Veep is probably a decent bet to get nominated again.
The wild card is Arrested Development.
At this point, I'd put that and New Girl ahead of Louie. The latter is in a second-tier with shows like Parks & Rec who will be fighting for position.
Don't get me wrong, I dunno that there's a more passionate Louie partisan on these boards, but I'm in a "I'll believe it when I see it mode" at this point.
I would put Parks and Rec in a third tier below Louie/Veep/New Girl/Enlightened, unfortunately. It's really, really hard to come back to a lineup once you've been dropped.
Right now, I'd probably go:
1. Modern Family
2. 30 Rock
3. The Big Bang Theory
6. Arrested Development
8. New Girl
9. Parks and Recreation
11. Suburgatory/Archer/The Office/The Middle
I have no idea what to do with Arrested Development. But after 'House of Cards' has been pretty ceremoniously accepted by audiences and critics, I think it should have no problem attracting eyes. The quality is another question.
Ranking for Drama Series ?
For Drama Series it's really a seven-show race for six slots at this point: The six incumbents and House of Cards.
2. Downton Abbey
3. Mad Men
4. Breaking Bad
5. Game of Thrones
6. Boardwalk Empire
7. House of Cards
Those are the only seven shows I can see nominated.
While that stat looks bad for Parks and Rec since they have been dropped, Poehler getting her 1st Sag and GG noms and kind of a star turn for hosting the GG I would not be surprised if the series sneaks in a nom since nothing outside of BBT,Girls,30 Rock and MF looks solid.
I thought Veep was a Nurse Jackie or Blind Side situation. "Hey, we love that actress so much we'll throw her thing into the biggest race to show her how little she has to worry about winning." Jackie had just 2 noms the year after Falco's win (Actress/Casting). But maybe not.
New Girl I don't feel confident in because last year it was Fox's Breakout Hit. This year it's down 33% in the ratings to just-decent territory and there seems to be less buzz. Though based on critics' T10 lists, it's one of the T6 comedies right now.
I wonder if previously-snubbed and currently critically adored Louie and Walking Dead can get in. Louie is more likely with its recent guild win, its Writing Emmy, and getting into Directing and Lead Actor races. But Metacritic's aggregate of T10 lists has Walking Dead as TV's #6 show, and it looks set to be the #1-rated show after football. Huge acclaim + huge huge ratings. Of course, there's the issue of lack of big names, other awards not giving it a possible boost, and of course the fact that it's about zombies.
Ang Lee - The only 2x Bafta/DGA/Oscar-Winning Director!
Meryl on Oscars: Y’see these little babies? These are my best f***ing friends
and they never let me down. Try to get ‘em away from me and I’ll eat you alive.
But what else? Nurse Jackie had more competition than Veep. I'm not saying it's a sure thing by any means, but I think it's going to be tough for a new show to hurdle it.
Eh, I think Veep was a one time fluke thing. I really think that rode in on the coattails of Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and I doubt she's winning again. For whatever reason, I expect New Girl to crack the Comedy Series lineup this year.
Great. Now who's going to watch Sunday Rose on SAG night??
If Veep gets bumped, we'll have two newbie nominees, which just seems extreme for the lazy Emmy voters. This isn't a scenario where two freshman comedies sweep in like last year. It will be already established, likely never before nominated shows (i.e. Louie and New Girl).