I think there has been a general move to the middle on Bieber. All of his singles from 'Believe' have been very well-received and I don't think he's perceived as a total joke anymore. The album was warmly reviewed, too. I'd say he's got at least the same amount of respect as somebody like Katy Perry. I'm not saying I'd be a fan of the nomination, but I can see it happening.
fun. is a good bet. I wonder if they'll be content to just nominate "We Are Young" in Record and/or Song and leave an album slot to somebody else, though. I'm not sure fun. is going to nab 3 major nominations. Or wait, are they eligible for Best New Artist? I suppose they could be nominated in all 4 major categories, but I doubt it.
I'd love it if Fiona Apple could sneak into AOTY.