The only arguments you’re offering are:
1- That BAFTA is a supposedly a stronger precursor nowadays than years ago, which is a false one given in the last two years BAFTA only predicted 2 of the 4 winners rights, with obvious disregard for being an Oscar prognosticator considering Bonham Carter or Carey Mulligan had exactly zero chances at winning Oscar.
2- That The Help has underperformed, which is not something I’m denying, but something I’m simply relativizing as an important factor in this race, because no matter how much it’s underperformed, it’s still a much more beloved film than Iron Lady.
How exactly am I wrong? I guess the only thing we can discuss a bit is The Help “underperforming”, but like, let’s analyse it. So, screenwriters didn’t vote for it (its main snub). So what. Can you honestly say that you think screenwriters liked “The Iron Lady” better? Do you really think the screenwriters that didn’t put The Help in #1 will vote in Best Actress for a film they, by all signs, liked even less? And don’t say that liking a film is not the same as liking a performance, because if that’s the case then your whole point about The Help underperforming is void, given that Viola Davis herself was nominated. Even with The Help underperforming, it’s seen by the industry, the critics and the audience as the better film. Hence it’s more beloved. Yes also by AMPAS. With all its underperforming, it’s more beloved than Iron Lady. And both Brokeback and Up in the Air lost to films that were even more beloved, not to films with abysmal reviews that were not beloved at all. So the comparison is absurd. If TGWTDT had gotten that picture nomination, you could use The Help’s underperforming to sustain the possibility of a Mara upset, but the overall underperforming of a film only matters when the competition has overperformed big way, not when the competition is still a crappy film nobody but the British and Harvey’s whores (AKA HFPA) give a damn about.
So far I have addressed each and every one of your arguments. I haven’t disregarded any of them, I’ve just exposed their inconsistencies (or their falseness, in the case of BAFTA supposedly being a stronger precursor than yesteryear, which is quite simply false).